If you happen to’re a serious league hitter, you’ll attain a two-strike depend. Not each time – baseball isn’t an each time sport – however continuously, constantly, inevitably. In these two-strike counts, you’re going to see sliders. Once more, not each time, however continuously. 1 / 4 of two-strike pitches within the majors this 12 months have been sliders of some selection. Pitchers are not any dummies, and so they know the place their bread is buttered.
The worst factor that might occur with these two-strike sliders you’re certain to face? A strikeout, clearly. However unhealthy information: There are going to be strikeouts. Once more, not each time, however strikeouts are only a truth of life in baseball as of late, and 21% of two-strike sliders have resulted in strikeouts this 12 months. Not within the plate look – on that pitch particularly. No surprise pitchers throw so lots of them.
With all that in thoughts, right here’s a press release I’m positive you’ll agree with: A great way to get higher at hitting is to cease putting out on two-strike sliders. I imply, this isn’t rocket science. Putting out is unhealthy. Doing it much less is sweet. Thanks for coming to my TED discuss.
Oh, proper, I assume I nonetheless should inform you what this text is about. Let’s speak about a participant who made a heroic change. Early in his profession, he did a good job defending in opposition to sliders with two strikes (15.4% putaway fee on two-strike sliders). In 2023, although, issues took a flip; he struck out on 20% of the two-strike sliders he noticed. This 12 months, nonetheless, he’s defending in opposition to them higher than ever. No participant in baseball has gone down much less continuously in opposition to two-strike sliders than our thriller man’s 8.6% clip. Pitchers merely can’t get him out. He’s placing up a wonderful 118 wRC+ and putting out much less usually than final 12 months.
There’s only one drawback: Our blind merchandise participant is Yandy Díaz. And whereas he’s having an appropriate season this 12 months, it’s miles worse than final 12 months’s marketing campaign, when he was swinging and lacking in any respect these two-strike sliders. He’s not even doing higher with two strikes. His batting common, on-base share, and slugging share in two-strike counts have all declined this 12 months, each in opposition to sliders and total.
If this appears like fairly the conundrum, that’s as a result of it’s. The important thing growth of baseball over the previous decade has been pitchers more and more looking strikeouts. I don’t want to point out you a kind of charts of slider fee over time; all it’s important to do is watch a sport. They’re utilizing the pitch extra as a result of it really works, and one of many key methods it really works is by lacking bats in advantageous counts. Sliders are the very best strikeout weapon in trendy baseball.
Nevertheless, the opposite facet of that is an inconvenient fact for individuals who like balls in play and motion. Let’s take Díaz for example. He’s utterly modified his conduct in opposition to sliders this 12 months as in comparison with final 12 months. It’s not a pitch recognition factor. He swung at two-strike sliders off the plate (within the Chase and Waste zones outlined by Baseball Savant) 23% of the time final 12 months, and that’s as much as 26% this 12 months, every in small samples. He’s defending sliders over the plate at roughly the identical fee: 98% final 12 months, 94% this 12 months. He’s not even getting fooled much less by completely positioned sliders simply off of the sting of the zone; he swung at 78% of these final 12 months and 82% to this point this 12 months.
No, Díaz made a very totally different change: He simply stopped lacking. Final 12 months, he swung at 71 two-strike sliders that weren’t over the lifeless center of the plate. In different phrases, these are the pitches that had been, kind of, executed the way in which the opposing pitcher needed. He got here up empty on 35% of these swings. That’s not disastrous or something – the league common is round 37%. This 12 months, he’s all the way down to a 14.5% whiff fee, which is the bottom in baseball, only a hair forward of contact god Luis Arraez, who has gone greater than a month with out putting out. Final 12 months, Díaz whiffed on 27% of down-the-middle sliders on two strikes. This 12 months, he’s at 3.6%, one whiff on 28 swings.
We don’t have bat monitoring knowledge for 2023, which is a disgrace, however there’s a simple assumption to make right here. How do you retain your swing choices unchanged and but make contact at a far increased fee? By taking a much less violent swing. You may see it within the numbers. He’s hitting the ball meaningfully softer when he affords at two-strike sliders. His hard-hit fee when he places one in play has dipped from 54% to 36%, and he’s had over roughly 100 balls in play in every year, so not a tiny pattern.
Exhausting-hit fee is hardly the one change right here. His common exit velocity and ninetieth percentile exit velocity are means down on these swings. His floor contact, specifically, is completely abysmal. We’re speaking 83.4 common exit velocity, .174 slugging share depressing. He’s chopping the ball into the bottom moderately than taking a strikeout, which is an effective cut price – solely we’re speaking about 23 extra grounders this 12 months, which is a ton.
This explicit change in Díaz’s sport has permeated the remainder of his offensive strategy. He’s performing worse in opposition to each kind of slider regardless of making contact with them extra usually, and it’s all attributable to contact high quality. If you happen to’re searching for it in xwOBA phrases, he punished the sliders he put in play final 12 months to the tune of a .506 xwOBA. This 12 months he’s all the way down to .376. That’s the distinction between Giancarlo Stanton’s manufacturing on contact and Edmundo Sosa’s. Saving the odd strikeout right here or there can’t presumably make up for that type of swing.
I don’t know if this modification is intentional. It’s actually putting, although, as a result of the change in conduct appears restricted to breaking balls. In opposition to fastballs, little or no has modified. There, his hard-hit fee is actually unchanged, and whereas he’s hitting the ball on the bottom a bit extra usually, that needed to be anticipated after his profession 12 months in 2023. Likewise, he’s mainly the identical participant when he swings at changeups and splitters; he’s really hitting these pitches a bit more durable this 12 months, although in a small pattern. He’s additionally getting higher outcomes. However in opposition to flexible stuff – principally sliders, however curves as nicely – every thing has gone fallacious.
Right here’s the soiled secret about sliders: As a lot because the swings and misses are interesting, batters altering their strategy and sacrificing contact high quality works simply as nicely for the protection. Pitchers will gladly sacrifice a couple of strikeouts if it means somebody with Díaz’s uncooked energy is slapping the ball on the bottom.
Right here’s one other means of it: Díaz has seen 51 sliders this 12 months the place our PitchingBot mannequin thinks that a mean hitter would hit a house run a minimum of 2% of the time. You may consider these as crushable sliders; the common dwelling run probability of all sliders he’s seen this 12 months is barely 0.6%. He’s hit one homer on these 51 pitches. General, his complete manufacturing on these sliders – and bear in mind, these are the worst he’s seen all 12 months – is 1.5 runs above common relative to a random pitch. That’s fairly depressing. For comparability’s sake, he noticed 61 final 12 months and hit three homers on the way in which to being 5.1 runs above common.
There are a couple of methods to beat pitchers who throw you too many sliders. First, you possibly can spit on those that aren’t within the zone. We’ve already established that Díaz hasn’t modified his swing fee, although, in order that one’s out. Second, you possibly can punish the unhealthy ones. Announcers speak about hanging sliders on a regular basis. It’s an actual danger! If you happen to depart one sitting up over the plate, good hitters can crank it out of the park. However they’re quite a bit much less seemingly to do this in the event that they’re targeted closely on making contact. The swing that you simply use to make contact with a great slider and the one you utilize to deposit a nasty one within the outfield seats most likely aren’t the very same.
Perhaps that is all simply coincidence. There’s actually some probability that these two issues – fewer whiffs and worse contact high quality – simply randomly occurred without delay. However that doesn’t appear significantly seemingly, and it significantly doesn’t appear seemingly that somebody like Díaz would have each occur to him with no company in any respect.
In truth, a number of the hitters who’ve made the alternative change are seeing the leads to reverse. Ketel Marte is putting out on two-strike sliders extra continuously than ever earlier than, and but he’s having maybe his finest 12 months. I’m simply cherry choosing examples, although; there’s little or no correlation between change in two-strike slider putaway fee and alter in offensive manufacturing.
What does all of this imply? For me, there’s one key takeaway: You may’t simply do away with unhealthy outcomes with out giving one thing else up. Hitting is all about tradeoffs, and pondering rigorously about which of them you make is vital. Some hitters minimize down on their slider putaway fee and see large returns – Ryan O’Hearn is a good instance right here. Some hitters strike out extra continuously on sliders and likewise do worse total – assume Jeimer Candelario. You may’t simply take a look at one statistic, even one which appears as uncomplicated and vital as, “Do you strike out an excessive amount of in opposition to sliders?” and get a transparent reply. Hitting is difficult! There are not any easy options. Simply ask Yandy Díaz.
