Xander Bogaerts‘ first season as a second baseman hasn’t gone as deliberate. He’s struggled mightily on the plate to this point, and whereas he’s fared higher defensively, on Monday he suffered a fracture in his left shoulder whereas diving for a ball. He may miss a few months, leaving the Padres — who regardless of going simply 27-26 to this point at present occupy the third NL Wild Card spot — to fend with out him.
The harm occurred in the course of the first recreation of Monday’s doubleheader in Atlanta. With the bases loaded within the third inning, Bogaerts ranged to his left to attempt to cease a Ronald Acuña Jr. grounder. He dove in time to get his glove on the ball, however he landed exhausting, and awkwardly. He instantly started writhing on the bottom and will solely wrist-flip the ball to shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, who noticed the play to its conclusion — a run scored, although Bogaerts’ cease in all probability prevented a second one from doing in order properly — and motioned for assist.
“As quickly as I caught the ball, I heard, like, cracks. 4 cracks,” Bogaerts informed reporters. “At that time, I used to be like, ‘One thing’s incorrect.’ I didn’t really feel precisely like one thing shifted. I simply felt, like, cracks.”
4 cracks! In one other telling, it was “a pair,” however with an necessary element: “I didn’t really feel something come out after which return in. The one factor I bear in mind listening to was a pair cracks.”
Presumably Bogaerts was explaining that he didn’t really feel as if he’d suffered a soft-tissue harm. Whereas preliminary x-rays have been unfavourable, a subsequent prognosis confirmed a fracture in his left shoulder, and whereas the Padres didn’t provide additional specificity, the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee reported that the fracture is in his shoulder socket. That may recommend a glenoid fracture, notably given the traumatic nature of the harm, however such accidents normally contain tears of the labrum, and the Padres have since confirmed that Bogaerts didn’t endure a tear, nor will he want surgical procedure. By comparability, when Purple Sox shortstop Trevor Story dove for a ball and dislocated his left shoulder on April 5, he suffered a glenoid rim fracture and tore his posterior labrum, each of which have been addressed with season-ending surgical procedure. Below the Knife’s Will Carroll identified that given the mixture of an absence of soppy tissue injury and an preliminary report that Bogaerts’ shoulder was secure, the method of elimination factors to the scapula because the fractured bone.
That’s the excellent news, however the unhealthy information is that Bogaerts continues to be anticipated to be out two to 3 months in keeping with Acee. Bogaerts expressed the idea that he’d be again sooner, although his phrases learn extra like an athlete’s bravado than an knowledgeable replace. “Two to 3 months, no,” he mentioned. “Nah, nah. I perceive we need to be sensible, however I’ll be again earlier than that. I don’t just like the sound of all these months.”
For the 31-year-old infielder, the harm is simply the newest sudden flip in a season that hasn’t lacked for them. Throughout spring coaching, the Padres satisfied Bogaerts — who signed an 11-year, $280 million contract with the workforce in December 2022 and spent the next season enjoying shortstop — to modify locations with the defensively superior Kim, the workforce’s major shortstop in ’22 and its Gold Glove-winning second baseman final 12 months. It’s too early to get a real learn on the returns defensively, however the prorated metrics recommend it may need price them a few runs to this point:
Padres’ Center Infield Swap Meet
| 2023 | Place | Innings | FRV | DRS | UZR | AVG/1200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim | 2B | 856.2 | 5 | 10 | 2.6 | 8.2 |
| Bogaerts | SS | 1285.2 | 2 | -4 | -0.2 | -0.7 |
| Padres | Whole | 12969.0 | 19 | 40 | 26.2 | 2.6 |
| Bogaerts | 2B | 379.0 | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0.3 |
| Kim | SS | 442.1 | 1 | 1 | -0.5 | 1.4 |
| Padres | Whole | 4143.0 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
All knowledge by way of Might 22.
It’s price noting that Manny Machado’s early-season absence at third base may have influenced Kim’s positioning and play, however we’re actually squinting at small samples. On a team-wide foundation, the Padres’ prorated metrics present an analogous hole — they have been additional above common final 12 months than they’re now — however when it comes to turning batted balls into outs, they’re principally unchanged; this 12 months’s .704 defensive effectivity (tied for third within the NL) is on par with final 12 months .702, which ranked third as properly.
However, it doesn’t take a lot to see that Bogaerts hasn’t been himself on the plate. Regardless of enjoying a lot of the 2023 season with a nagging left wrist harm that required spring and midseason cortisone photographs and compelled him to regulate his swing, he hit a good .285/.350/.440 (120 wRC+) with 19 homers and a career-high 19 steals in his inaugural season as a Padre. This 12 months, nevertheless, he’s slipped to .219/.265/.316 (71 wC+) with 4 homers and 4 steals. As to what’s going incorrect, he’s not hitting the ball very exhausting, producing a career-low exit velocity and his lowest hard-hit fee since 2017. That mentioned, he’s hitting the ball within the air extra typically, and he’s pulling it extra typically:
Xander Bogaerts Batted Ball Profile
| Season | GB/FB | GB% | FB% | Pull% | BBE | EV | Barrel% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1.07 | 40.0% | 37.4% | 45.6% | 423 | 89.6 | 9.7% | 43.0% |
| 2022 | 1.46 | 46.4% | 31.8% | 39.9% | 446 | 88.1 | 6.5% | 39.5% |
| 2023 | 1.53 | 50.4% | 32.9% | 40.2% | 492 | 87.6 | 6.1% | 34.3% |
| 2024 | 1.27 | 44.6% | 35.1% | 48.0% | 148 | 86.2 | 6.8% | 30.4% |
Pulled or no, the dearth of oomph on these fly balls is actually costing him:
Xander Bogaerts Fly Balls
| Season | BBE | EV | Dist | Barrel% | HH% | AVG | xBA | SLG | xSLG | wOBA | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 101 | 92.7 | 319 | 24.8 | 53.5 | .306 | .282 | .980 | .906 | .506 | .480 |
| 2022 | 94 | 90.7 | 298 | 20.2 | 37.2 | .315 | .256 | .843 | .708 | .460 | .407 |
| 2023 | 111 | 91.3 | 313 | 22.5 | 37.8 | .262 | .268 | .822 | .817 | .423 | .427 |
| 2024 | 38 | 89.6 | 294 | 15.8 | 31.6 | .135 | .206 | .324 | .496 | .190 | .319 |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
That hole of almost 20 toes owes one thing to cooler spring temperatures that forestall the ball from carrying so far as it does within the hotter months, however nonetheless, it’s left its mark on Bogaerts’ manufacturing.
Bogaerts spent the primary month of the season hitting leadoff, however when he addressed his hunch after an April 19 0-for-4 efficiency, he refused to lean on that or final 12 months’s wrist troubles as an excuse. “Let’s not search for no wrist points. Let’s not search for no leadoff spot,” he mentioned on the time. “The hits haven’t been falling, and it sucks while you usually get a whole lot of hits and now you don’t.”
As a substitute, Bogaerts expressed a perception that his points have been mechanical, and that his propensity to drag the ball wasn’t intentional:
“That’s actually uncommon, in contrast to me… It ain’t being pull-happy. It’s simply rhythm, not (being) in sync.
“I’m conscious that I’m hitting a whole lot of balls over there (left area). And I’m making an attempt to hit it over there (proper area), however I nonetheless can’t do it. So, that’s the frustration… Like, you need to do one thing and you’re feeling such as you’re not ready to have the ability to do it, or your physique doesn’t let you do it simply by the best way I’m placing myself in place as I’m going to take a swing. That causes the errors that I preserve doing. It’s actually, actually exhausting for me to go the opposite manner.”
Bogaerts had improved barely since then, hitting .243/.269/.369 (85 wRC+) since April 20, however even that’s fairly cringeworthy. One extra clue could provide some perception: Per The Athletic, Bogaerts reportedly has handled hip discomfort and soreness, which he attributed to the place swap. Notably given how important hip rotation is to producing bat pace, I do surprise if that’s been an element. Multiyear bat pace knowledge can be useful for comparisons, however the just lately launched knowledge doesn’t provide a lot assist past telling us that Bogaerts’ bat pace ranks within the thirty first percentile. His splits by month (70.5 mph in March/April and 70.9 in Might) don’t shed any additional mild.
Maybe the break day will permit Bogaerts a reset that helps him rediscover his stroke. As for a way the Padres will proceed with out him, on a workforce whose lineup is made nearly fully out of shortstops, it’s not the steepest problem to seek out one or two able to filling in at second base. Since I wrote this in early April, the workforce has traded for Luis Arraez, who even earlier than Bogaerts’ harm had made three begins on the keystone whereas Bogaerts DHed; he took the primary three begins after Bogaerts’ harm. Arraez’s bat has heated up because the Might 4 commerce; he now has a .341/.382/.422 (134 wRC+) season line on the again of a .419/.449/.514 (184 wRC+) displaying with San Diego, however his protection at second is questionable sufficient that the Padres desire him as a DH. Final 12 months with Miami, he had 4 DRS and a couple of.4 UZR however -7 FRV in 1,124 innings at second base, whereas this 12 months in 332 innings he’s at -1 DRS, -2.1 UZR, and -6 FRV.
Beginning Arraez at second opens up the DH slot for different gamers. Machado, who didn’t play the sector this season till April 26 whereas recovering from October surgical procedure to restore his extensor tendon in his proper elbow, has been DHing each third or fourth recreation there currently.
Requested on Wednesday who would fill in for the injured Bogaerts, supervisor Mike Shildt had this to say:
“We’re nonetheless within the technique of figuring that out… There are some issues that we’re excited about that can come into play the following couple of days that we’ll discover. We have now a whole lot of choices between three or 4 totally different guys.
“We’ll be considerably inventive with that, relative to what we’re seeing, and the pitching. However we’ll additionally create some stability that we predict folks will like.”
The almost definitely choices in addition to the lefty-swinging Arraez are hot-hitting righty Donovan Solano (.348/.423/.391 in 26 PA since signing with the workforce in mid-April), lefty Tyler Wade (.260/.341/.288, 94 wRC+), and lefty Jake Cronenworth (.263/.329/.453, 127 wRC+). Cronenworth was the workforce’s common second baseman from 2020–22 earlier than shifting to first base. He’s a greater fielder than Arraez, and he did play 35 video games at second final 12 months, so in a longer-term association it’d make sense to swap the 2, as Arraez does have some first base expertise; so does Solano, for that matter, however he’s much less prone to play every single day. On Thursday, with Reds righty Frankie Montas on the mound, the Padres rolled with Cronenworth making his season debut at second, Arraez at first, and Jurickson Profar at DH; lefty David Peralta, who signed a minor league cope with the workforce final week and was recalled from Triple-A El Paso to take Bogaerts’ roster spot, performed left area in Profar’s stead.
For as tempting because it may be to recommend that the Padres could possibly be higher with out Bogaerts given his hunch, the fact is that his contract makes him a long-term fixture, and any actual success that they’ve in all probability relies upon upon him recovering his type. Hopefully when he’s healed sufficient to start working his manner again, he’ll rediscover his outdated stroke.
