There was a sure monotony to my Nationwide League predictions lately.
I picked the Los Angeles Dodgers to defeat the Chicago Cubs within the 2021 NL Championship Collection, then lose to the Chicago White Sox within the World Collection.
Incorrect on each counts. The precise NL champions have been the Atlanta Braves, who went on to defeat the Houston Astros for the world title.
I selected the Dodgers once more in 2022, predicting that they’d subdue the St. Louis Cardinals within the NLCS and the Tampa Bay Rays within the World Collection.
One other strikeout. The actual-life finalists have been the Philadelphia Phillies from the Nationwide League and the Astros (once more) from the American, with the latter taking the crown.
So what did I do in 2023? I tapped the Dodgers within the NL for the third straight time, forecasting victories over Atlanta within the Championship Collection and Houston within the finale.
Improper once more. The Arizona Diamondbacks got here out of nowhere to win the NL championship, solely to lose the World Collection to the Texas Rangers.
That brings us to the upcoming 2024 season.
I as soon as once more envision the Dodgers rising from the Nationwide League playoffs, as I revealed final Friday. How may they not? L.A. has been making vital acquisitions at two-year intervals, including Mookie Betts in 2020, Freddie Freeman in 2022, and Shohei Ohtani this yr. No different staff can come near the Dodgers’ firepower.
If my forecast is appropriate, it can fall to the Toronto Blue Jays to confront Los Angeles within the World Collection.
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I simulated every 2024 postseason sequence 1,000 occasions as I generated final week’s playoff forecasts for the 2 leagues. (Click on right here to study extra concerning the simulation course of.)
I expanded the method for the World Collection, pitting the Blue Jays and Dodgers 10,000 occasions. These have been the outcomes:
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Los Angeles Dodgers, 5,705 wins
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Toronto Blue Jays, 4,295 wins
The Jays clearly have an opportunity, on condition that they received nearly 43 p.c of the simulations, however the Dodgers’ lead is nonetheless spectacular.
Admit it. All of us count on Los Angeles to stroll away with the Commissioner’s Trophy in late October (or early November).
And the pc does, too.
For those who’d prefer to revisit my predictions for the 2024 season, you possibly can comply with these hyperlinks:
It has been an extended winter, however we’ve lastly arrived on the opening week of the 2024 season (however the 2 video games in Korea final week). Benefit from the motion.
I’ll be again subsequent week with a brand new format for Baseball’s Finest (and Worst), tinkering a bit with the structure and presentation after three and a half years (and 451 posts) of this text.
See you then.
