After an all-out dash between the Atlanta Dream, Washington Mystics and Chicago Sky to seize the No. 8 seed, the Dream (15-25) snuck into the again finish of the 2024 WNBA playoffs on a photograph end. They bested the New York Liberty (32-8) on Thursday to safe their berth, and have since been rewarded with a hasty rematch.
The Dream are searching for their first playoff win since 2018. Final yr, they have been shut out within the first spherical by a No. 4-seed Dallas Wings group who went quiet within the semifinals. The earlier 4 years, Atlanta didn’t qualify for the postseason. The Liberty have their eyes on an even bigger prize. Since shedding within the 2023 WNBA Finals, New York has been out for vengeance.
The newest playoff format has solely been used for 2 years, however eighth seeds have but to win a sport—not to mention a collection—towards prime seeds. Atlanta survived a bumpy common season, however making historical past is a distinct monster. The New York Liberty are a distinct monster.
Can Atlanta discover an edge?
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Atlanta is streaky, however they haven’t proven sufficient to challenge themselves as rivals within the face of a generational Liberty roster. The Dream began the yr at 7-9 earlier than wilting below an eight-game shedding streak. They’ve dropped winnable video games to unimpressive opponents, and routinely struggled to compete with playoff groups. Atlanta has a 5-17 document towards groups over .500 this season.
The Dream champion a good protection, however their counter assault is nonexistent. It’s spectacular they’re seeing the postseason in any respect, with the league’s second-worst offense. Whereas Atlanta solely shoots 30.8 p.c from behind the arc, lots of their struggles are rooted in an absence of needle-moving inside play. Guards Rhyne Howard and Allisha Grey can maintain tempo with the league’s finest scorers, however 35-year-old heart Tina Charles has misplaced a step in the case of put up physicality. Her face-up sport is as pure as ever, however the Dream have to put stress on Jonquel Jones to be able to power Liberty defenders to assist. With out feeling threatened inside, the Liberty can keep locked to shooters, minimizing alternatives for high-quality photographs.
Sniffing out potential playoff X-factors on the Dream is puzzling. Jordin Canada had an outstanding yr, however she’s by no means been susceptible to offensive explosion. Canada averages 10 factors and 6 assists, however has solely scored greater than 15 factors thrice this season. Cheyenne Parker-Tyus was dominated out with an ankle harm for the rest of the common season in early September; Aerial Powers likewise was sidelined for the season with a calf harm. The group hasn’t but introduced if they are going to return for the playoffs.
A expertise disparity isn’t the one issue working towards Atlanta. Since adopting the present three-game collection format for the primary spherical of the playoffs in 2022, every of the primary two video games are performed within the higher-seeded group’s enviornment. The Dream will journey to Brooklyn, needing to steal a sport within the thunderous Barclays Middle in the event that they need to power a Recreation 3 in Atlanta.
A small cease on New York’s revenge tour
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New York might have dropped their last regular-season sport to Atlanta, however adversity has been held to a historic minimal. Thirty two wins, which they’ve now achieved in back-to-back seasons, is the second-highest single season complete in WNBA historical past.
Credit score, whether or not or not deserved, will probably be expectedly consigned to the trio of Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones. Nonetheless, the best praise that may be given to this Liberty roster is that they’re insured. Most groups collapse below the failures of their heliocentric stars once they have an off-night. For the Liberty, it appears to make no distinction. They’ve gained by 20 in video games the place Ionescu barely pitched in 5 factors. Stewart is taking pictures a profession low from 3, by a large margin, and it has made no tangible distinction to group success. Gamers tucked within the Liberty bench rotation like Leonie Fiebich and Kayla Thornton can be starters on most groups within the league.
It’s tempting to say that New York’s tunnel imaginative and prescient for the Finals may result in some first-round oversight, however the actuality is that it simply doesn’t appear to matter. Head Coach Sandy Brondello has been steering this core group for 2 years, however they play like they’ve been collectively since delivery. Sparing Nyara Sabally, ever single participant on the roster could make a 3 if left open. Jones is the prototypical stretch-five that normal supervisor’s would promote their soul to signal. Atlanta is aware of how you can defend, however what’s their win situation? Who do they afford essentially the most consideration, and who’re they keen to let work towards single protection? Guarding New York’s best feels much less like a chess match, and extra like spending your final ten {dollars} on a lottery ticket. Simply pray one thing goes proper.
Atlanta couldn’t scope out an Achilles heel of their lone win towards New York on Thursday. A number of the Liberty starters have been pulled about half approach via the sport, and preparation for a principally meaningless regular-season finale is incomparable to a three-game playoff collection. The Dream have till Sunday to theorize a plan. They may very well be stingy with assist protection, and depart the destiny of the collection as much as isolation stops. They might do the other, collapsing in on drives whereas forfeiting 3s and hoping they don’t fall. There’ll by no means be a “appropriate” reply. That’s why New York is a No. 1 seed, and why Atlanta is No. 8.
With all that being stated, nothing is inconceivable. The playoff format can theoretically work in Atlanta’s favor in the event that they’re in a position to power a Recreation 3. Bringing the Liberty down South for a winner-take-all elimination sport would shift the power of each groups. The toughest half will probably be getting again to Atlanta. If the Dream are in a position to by some means steal a sport below the Brooklyn lights, New York may very well be dealing with an early exit.
No. 1-seed New York Liberty (32-8) vs. No. 8-seed Atlanta Dream (15-25)
Recreation 1: Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty
When: Sunday, Sept. 22 at 1 p.m. ET
The place: Barclays Middle in Brooklyn, NY
How you can watch: ESPN
Recreation 2: Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty
When: Tuesday, Sept. 24 at 7:30 p.m. ET
The place: Barclays Middle in Brooklyn, NY
How you can watch: ESPN
Recreation 3 (if vital): New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream
When: Thursday, Sept. 27 ( time TBD)
The place: Gateway Middle Enviornment at School Park in Atlanta, GA
How you can watch: ESPN2
