The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs have received back-to-back Tremendous Bowls, so all the NFL shall be trying to knock them off their perch atop the league. What’s stunning, although, is that regardless of profitable two titles in a row, my NFL Projection Mannequin doesn’t see the Chiefs because the favorites to win all of it this 12 months. That’s extra a testomony to the AFC, which is deep with proficient groups, making the Chiefs’ march to a different convention crown extraordinarily troublesome.
Then once more, the highway received’t be straightforward for any workforce. If it had been, we wouldn’t be watching.
GO DEEPER
NFL QB Tiers 2024: Solely 2 be part of Mahomes in Tier 1; Rodgers, Herbert drop out
With that in thoughts, and the beginning of the season lower than every week away, let’s study the ten groups probably to win the Tremendous Bowl and supply explanation why they are going to or received’t be the final workforce standing in February.
NFL Projection Mannequin: Tremendous Bowl
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
The 49ers nonetheless have arguably one of the best roster within the NFL, with my projection mannequin suggesting they’ve one of the best offense and fourth-best protection within the league. Quarterback Brock Purdy is 17-4 as a starter in his younger profession, and coach Kyle Shanahan is without doubt one of the greatest offensive minds in soccer. When you’ve gotten top-five models on either side of the ball and also you’re coming off a second NFC title in three years, it’s not onerous to argue for why you’ll win it.
GO DEEPER
NFL Projection Mannequin, NFC win totals: Are 49ers, Lions nonetheless cream of the crop?
Why they received’t win the Tremendous Bowl
Contract chaos. Negotiations with star receiver Brandon Aiyuk and All-Professional left deal with Trent Williams spill into the season, and with out these two working towards for almost all of the summer time, the offense sputters out of the gate and struggles to discover a rhythm.
And if the 49ers finally deal Aiyuk, that shall be an enormous blow to the offense regardless of their funding within the place within the draft. The 49ers make use of a rookie contract quarterback, so that they have loads of expertise past Aiyuk and Williams, however with out these two pushing the unit to full power, it’s onerous to examine San Francisco reaching one other Tremendous Bowl.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (11.8%)
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
You understand the explanations. It’s onerous to not sound like a damaged file when speaking about this period of the Chiefs, however right here goes: They’ve a generational quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, an all-time nice coach in Andy Reid, the most effective assistant coaches in current reminiscence in defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and a championship-caliber roster. If Mahomes is wholesome and underneath middle, it’s onerous to see them as an underdog in opposition to anybody.
GO DEEPER
NFL Projection Mannequin, AFC win totals: Can anybody dethrone the Chiefs?
Why they received’t win the Tremendous Bowl
No workforce within the Tremendous Bowl period has ever three-peated. It’s extremely troublesome to win the Tremendous Bowl, and regardless of Mahomes and Co. making it look really easy, the AFC actually is stacked this 12 months. One factor I’m fearful about is that the Chiefs type of sleepwalked by the common season final 12 months. In the event that they must go on the highway within the playoffs once more, perhaps the protection takes a step again (changing star CB L’Jarius Sneed received’t be straightforward) they usually journey up in a troublesome surroundings like Baltimore or Buffalo.
Can coach Dan Campbell lead the Detroit Lions to the franchise’s first Tremendous Bowl title? (Gregory Shamus / Getty Pictures)
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
The protection turns into respectable, particularly within the secondary. Final 12 months, the Lions ranked twenty fourth in EPA/play and twenty ninth in opposition to the cross, in accordance with TruMedia. They need to haven’t any downside on offense — they’re ranked third by my mannequin — but when they’re going to characterize the NFC within the Tremendous Bowl, the protection must take strides. And since their first two picks within the NFL Draft had been each spent on cornerbacks (first-rounder Terrion Arnold and second-rounder Ennis Rakestraw Jr.), I’d say normal supervisor Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell agree.
Why they received’t win the Tremendous Bowl
The offense turns into stale underneath Jared Goff, similar to it did in Los Angeles. In Yr 3 with the Rams, Goff reached the Tremendous Bowl together with his EPA/dropback and success charge metrics hitting a peak. In Yr 4, his numbers dropped off, and the Rams went from 13 wins to 9. If Goff follows an analogous trajectory in his fourth 12 months in Detroit, with an enhancing division, the Lions might fall wanting expectations.
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
Coordinator upgrades on either side of the ball enable the Eagles to achieve their full potential. The Eagles had been a large number final 12 months, and getting the coordinator hires proper might offset shedding Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox to retirement. Vic Fangio must be an enormous improve to a protection that misplaced its method final 12 months. And the addition of an explosive playmaker in Saquon Barkley ought to enable new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to take a few of the burden off Jalen Hurts as a runner, which is able to assist hold the quarterback wholesome for all the season en path to the Tremendous Bowl.
Why they received’t win the Tremendous Bowl
The protection simply doesn’t fairly put it collectively. The Eagles’ first three picks in April’s draft had been all spent on the defensive aspect of the ball, and the primary two — defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean — shall be anticipated to contribute within the secondary. That’s a variety of strain to placed on a pair of inexperienced gamers. My mannequin has the Eagles protection projected to be a league-average unit because it stands proper now, and if the younger gamers within the secondary don’t present up, Philadelphia received’t final lengthy in January.
Baltimore Ravens (6.3%)
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
The protection stays the most effective within the NFL regardless of shedding defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to the Seattle Seahawks. If Zach Orr can step in and hold issues at the usual they had been at underneath Macdonald, this is without doubt one of the greatest groups in soccer. Orr has been with the Ravens as a participant and coach for all however one 12 months of his profession, so he could have all of the data wanted to maintain the ship on target. Additionally value mentioning: Two-time MVP QB Lamar Jackson and working again Derrick Henry might be probably the most harmful backfield duo because the flip of the century, and that finally ends up being an enormous purpose for his or her success.
GO DEEPER
After a decade aside, John and Jim Harbaugh resume NFL’s most fascinating rivalry
Why they received’t win the Tremendous Bowl
Losses on the offensive line are an excessive amount of to beat, and the Ravens discover themselves struggling to fend off contenders in a deep AFC. Jackson can erase a variety of deficiencies, however changing three offensive linemen and counting on Ronnie Stanley’s well being turns into a roster-building mistake even Jackson can’t overcome. The Ravens had one of many higher offensive traces within the league final 12 months, however no offense can attain its targets if it’s struggling within the trenches. If this line fails to come back collectively, so will the Ravens.
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
As a result of the protection improves with out Dan Quinn. Although issues acquired stale with Mike Zimmer as a head coach in Minnesota, I nonetheless assume he is without doubt one of the higher defensive minds in soccer. Regardless of rostering the most effective cross rushers within the league in Micah Parsons, the Cowboys protection at all times appeared to come back up quick in opposition to nice offenses throughout Quinn’s tenure — particularly in opposition to these working the Shanahan/Sean McVay schemes. If Zimmer will get a bit of extra out of this proficient unit, the Cowboys offense has sufficient firepower to take them to their first Tremendous Bowl since 1994.
GO DEEPER
How Cowboys plan to be sensible as they ramp-up CeeDee Lamb in his return
Why they received’t win the Tremendous Bowl
As a result of Dak Prescott can’t overcome unfavorable performs in huge video games. Pay attention, Prescott is an effective quarterback and I believe he’s one in all few able to main an NFL workforce to a hoop. However he tends to throw interceptions and take sacks at a better charge than the league’s elite when it issues. Final 12 months (playoffs included), Prescott ranked thirteenth in sacks plus INT charge at 7.4 p.c. Towards 2023 playoff groups (eight video games), he ranked twenty sixth at 10.3 p.c. If Prescott and the Cowboys offense can’t keep away from the catastrophe performs within the huge video games, they are going to endure one more disappointing finish to their season.
Buffalo Payments (5.6%)
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
As a result of Josh Allen is the second-best quarterback within the NFL and lifts a Payments offense that now not has star huge receiver Stefon Diggs. The Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill and received back-to-back Tremendous Bowls, and whereas I don’t assume Allen is Mahomes, he’s the subsequent closest factor. The Payments look to be following the Chiefs’ blueprint of preserving the roster wholesome for the long run moderately than spending an excessive amount of on one place (Diggs/Hill). If Allen can rise to the event like Mahomes has, there isn’t a purpose the Payments can’t end on prime in February.
Why they received’t win the Tremendous Bowl
The protection isn’t deep sufficient to hold its weight. Linebacker Matt Milano, an important member of the Payments protection, goes to overlook prolonged time recovering from a torn biceps harm he suffered earlier this month. With Milano within the lineup, my projections have the Payments as a fringe top-10 protection. With out him, they appear extra like a median unit, because the mannequin shouldn’t be overly keen on the remaining again seven. With out depth in that space, I’m afraid that hill shall be too steep to climb for Buffalo.
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
Quarterback Joe Burrow performs a full season. Burrow has been one of many league’s greatest quarterbacks when wholesome, however he’s struggled to remain on the sector. The offense has the weapons in place to be the most effective models within the league, and if Burrow is on the market, it’s a superb wager that unit shall be close to the highest 5. Issue within the fourth-place schedule the Bengals will play this season, and there’s an easier-than-expected path by the stacked AFC. In reality, Burrow has an opportunity to guide the Bengals to a first-round bye.
Why they received’t win the Tremendous Bowl
The protection isn’t championship-caliber. The Bengals ranked twenty fifth in EPA/play on protection final 12 months, so it’s going to take an terrible lot to get again into the highest 10. My mannequin has them projected to be a median unit getting into the season, and that’s doubtless not ok contemplating the place the offense is. Burrow is a good quarterback, however I don’t assume he’s proven the power to hold a median protection to a Tremendous Bowl.
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
As a result of coach Matt LaFleur, quarterback Jordan Love and this offense dismantled the Cowboys within the playoffs final 12 months and took the 49ers to the wire within the divisional spherical. And that was no fluke. One other offseason for Love and the ceiling for the Packers on that aspect of the ball is as excessive as anybody’s within the league. If they arrive near reaching that ceiling, they’ve an important shot to go all the best way.
Why they received’t win the Tremendous Bowl
As a result of whereas the offense was a top-five unit by EPA/play within the second half of final season, the protection ranked within the backside 10, and the particular groups was the worst unit in soccer throughout the identical interval. Modifications have been made at defensive coordinator — Jeff Hafley changed Joe Barry — and the expertise is there, however can all of it come collectively for Inexperienced Bay? It’s a troublesome factor to wager on. Even when the protection is common, mixed with horrible particular groups play, that’s simply an excessive amount of burden for the offense to hold.
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
The straightforward reply right here is that Aaron Rodgers performs like an MVP, however I believe the extra evident concern is the offensive line, which allowed strain on the sixth-highest charge final 12 months. The Jets addressed this by upgrading the unit in free company (Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, John Simpson) and the draft (Olu Fashanu). Although Fashanu hasn’t performed an NFL snap but, he’ll function essential depth behind the oft-injured Smith.
If the Jets hold Rodgers upright, all he must do is be an above-average quarterback, and the Jets could make a run with their elite protection.
Why they received’t win the Tremendous Bowl
As a result of having an elite protection 12 months over 12 months is hard. The New England Patriots are the one workforce to rank within the prime 5 of EPA/play on protection in every of the previous three seasons. And you might argue the quarterback play within the AFC East through the stretch has inflated the Patriots’ rating. The Jets protection enters the season within the prime three, per my mannequin. If the unit had been to slip down, even to seventh greatest, that would too huge of a hill to climb for an offense that has uncertainties.
Free, day by day NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Free, day by day NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Signal Up
(Picture illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic;
images: Lauren Leigh Bacho, Ryan Kang and Ric Tapia: Getty Pictures)
