A month with out basketball is over. Nicely, WNBA basketball that’s.
After an exciting finish to the Paris Olympic basketball match, the gold-medal successful People have once more dispersed throughout the nation to their respective WNBA groups. The New York Liberty entered the All-Star/Olympic break with the league’s finest report (21-4) and need to declare the franchise’s first title. After a little bit of a gradual begin, the Las Vegas Aces are looming in fifth at 16-8 however might very properly full the WNBA’s first three-peat because the Houston Comets from 1997-2000. Numerous different title contenders (the Connecticut Solar, Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm) are between the 2 2023 finals members with important aspirations, and people on the underside half of the standings are looking for to throw their hats within the combine.
Forward of video games resuming on Thursday, listed below are 5 predictions for the remainder of the season.
Which group will make a second-half surge?
Sabreena Service provider: Minnesota. The Lynx have Napheesa Collier again, they usually’ve been plus-11.4 per 100 possessions along with her on the ground. Cheryl Reeve now not has the load of the world on her shoulders after Group USA gained gold in Paris. Minnesota has had the league’s finest protection all season, regardless of slumping in July in Collier’s absence. Now absolutely wholesome, the Lynx can benefit from the league’s best remaining schedule — a .441 opposing win share awaits, per Tankathon.
TWO-TIME. 🥇 pic.twitter.com/Iqs4yFB8Tm
— Minnesota Lynx (@minnesotalynx) August 11, 2024
Ben Pickman: Will the Atlanta Dream end within the high six of the standings? In all probability not. However should you’re circling a franchise within the 7-12 vary as a group that may look drastically totally different within the second half of the season, then hold a detailed eye on the Dream. Atlanta entered the All-Star/Olympic break 7-17 and in ninth place. The large motive to anticipate some constructive change is that the break day gave the Dream’s finest gamers time to heal. Star wing Rhyne Howard missed a month with a left ankle damage, and through Howard’s absence Atlanta gained only a single sport. She returned for the ultimate sport earlier than the Olympic break, earlier than serving to the U.S. 3×3 group win bronze. Maybe simply as necessary, important offseason acquisition Jordin Canada performed solely 4 video games within the first half of the season resulting from two accidents. Her return might be an necessary jolt to Atlanta’s offense, which was eleventh in offensive score via the date of Howard’s damage on June 19. With Canada, Howard and Allisha Grey all taking part in collectively, Atlanta turns into a harmful group to gradual.
What’s your largest query?
Pickman: Will any Olympic stars who will not be at the moment signed raise a franchise through the stretch run?
Maybe it is a little bit of recency bias, however I’m watching to see if Emma Meesseman (Belgium), Gabby Williams (France) or Marine Johannes (France) signal with a WNBA franchise to assist through the second half. Regardless of the prioritization rule coming into impact this Could, all three are nonetheless eligible to affix the W in the event that they so select due to a little bit of a CBA loophole. After all, not the entire WNBA’s contenders have the roster area to signal a kind of gamers, however all three might be difference-makers. Johannes has confirmed to make an affect in bursts when she got here off the New York Liberty bench. Williams confirmed fearlessness and high-level playmaking through the Olympics, and she or he has produced within the WNBA with the Seattle Storm. Meesseman hasn’t performed within the WNBA since 2022, however she has gained the EuroLeague MVP in every of the previous two seasons and was one of the best participant not named A’ja Wilson through the Paris Olympics.
Service provider: Do the Aces have sufficient within the tank to three-peat?
A’ja Wilson, Jackie Younger and Kelsey Plum every rank within the high 15 in minutes per sport, plus they performed 163, 115 and 90 minutes, respectively, through the Olympics (not counting the All-Star Sport or different exhibitions). Las Vegas is tied for probably the most video games remaining within the league at 16 and has the third-most tough schedule. The Aces at the moment sit in fifth, so that they must leapfrog no less than one group to get home-court benefit within the first spherical, and doubtlessly two extra for home-court within the WNBA semifinals. They already get each opponent’s finest shot because the defending champions, and now they must make up floor with a gaggle that has been closely labored through the first a part of the season. It appears silly to wager in opposition to Wilson and Co. after the successes of the previous two years, however 2024 has been an additional problem from the leap. On a impartial web site with relaxation, I’d choose Las Vegas in opposition to every other group, however the situations gained’t be that favorable for the Aces going ahead. Having the ability to come from behind after setting the tempo final yr might be a brand new activity for this squad.
Who will win Rookie of the Yr?
Service provider: Caitlin Clark.
Maybe no rookie has ever come into the league with such excessive expectations. Not solely was she tasked with turning the Indiana Fever right into a contender, however she carried the load of your entire league on her shoulders. She has delivered in so some ways, serving to the WNBA’s reputation rocket whereas steadily bettering on the court docket. She leads the league in assists whereas pacing rookies in factors per sport. Clark additionally leads first-years in utilization (24.8 %) whereas posting the best efficient field-goal share (50.9 %) amongst rookies who common no less than 25 minutes in no less than 18 appearances this season.
Clark’s particular person numbers are onerous to argue, however this isn’t a cut-and-dry case as a result of Angel Reese has been extra impactful for group success. Reese has a plus-3.4 web score whereas Clark lags behind at minus-6.8. Moreover, the Sky are 24.9 factors per 100 possessions higher when Reese performs, and the Fever are basically impartial whether or not Clark is on or off the court docket. Nevertheless, the group context isn’t sufficient to beat what Clark has completed on the hardest place and whereas on the high of the scouting report.
Pickman: Caitlin Clark.
It looks like perpetually in the past that Clark final performed in a WNBA sport. However lest anybody neglect that in her last sport earlier than the multi-week hiatus, Clark set a brand new single-game WNBA report with 19 assists. Having to play 11 video games in 20 days, Clark and the Fever bought off to a slower begin than many on the skin anticipated coming into this season. However since Indiana’s early-season dash, which ended June 2, Indiana is sixth in web score and Clark’s web score is sort of 16 factors higher per 100 possessions. She leads the league in assists, ranks third in 3-pointers and seventh in complete factors, all whereas taking part in the second-most minutes of anybody throughout the WNBA. Greater than any single counting stat, if she is ready to proceed to enhance on her first half the best way she did via the months of June and July, then Indiana might additionally turn out to be the type of opponent no different franchise needs to face within the playoffs.
GO DEEPER
Why Caitlin Clark’s Olympics omission may be blessing in disguise for her rookie season
Who will win MVP?
Pickman: A’ja Wilson.
She ought to win MVP and she’s going to win MVP. The largest query via the primary half of the season was whether or not will probably be a unanimous vote. Jonquel Jones and Elena Delle Donne have come very shut in recent times, however with a second half to the season as robust as Wilson’s first, that might be one other facet she provides to her legacy this summer time.
Service provider: A’ja Wilson.
Precisely what Ben mentioned. The WNBA can begin creating this trophy for Wilson proper now as she joins the three-timers membership of Lauren Jackson, Lisa Leslie and Sheryl Swoopes.
Who will win the WNBA championship?
Service provider: I used to be burned by choosing New York initially of the 2023 common season and initially of the 2023 finals, but right here I’m, tempted by the Liberty once more. They’ve had a superlative first half of the season and have the depth to remain contemporary over the ultimate month heading into the playoffs. Las Vegas retains the pinnacle teaching benefit, and the Aces have one of the best participant on this planet, however New York may simply have the higher group this time round.
Pickman: The Liberty have been the WNBA’s finest group up to now, with Sabrina Ionescu’s continued ascension, Jones’ dominance and the emergence of viable reserve choices all serving to New York leap to a quick begin. However the Aces haven’t accomplished sufficient to sway me from my preseason title choose. Certain, the eight losses are probably the most they’ve had since 2022, however with Chelsea Grey within the beginning lineup, Las Vegas is 8-2 with a plus-12.3 web score, a mark barely forward of the Liberty. Wilson is best and so is Jackie Younger. The Aces may not have home-court all through this postseason, however I’m not satisfied that can matter both.
(Photograph of A’ja Wilson: Steph Chambers / Getty Photos)
