With the 2024 Tour de France nearly to kick off in Florence, the ultimate preparations are over for biking’s greatest race to return to the calendar. Groups have been confirmed, methods mapped out and the strain is constructing for an important bike race on the planet. Time, then, to once more run the rule over the type of these vying for the yellow jersey within the first-ever Tour in its 121-year historical past to complete exterior Paris.
Jonas Vingegaard remained an important lacking a part of the puzzle till his Visma-Lease a Bike crew introduced simply 9 days earlier than the Tour that he could be on the beginning line in Florence on June 29. Nevertheless, with no racing in his legs, it is unknown how his kind can be.
Against this, shut rival Tadej Pogačar (UAE Staff Emirates) was very clear in his build-up, confirming his help squad for the race on Geraint Thomas’ podcast and posting a number of updates, admitting most lately that “he is by no means felt so good on the bike”.
The Slovenian can be hungrier than ever to regain the yellow jersey after shedding out to Vingegaard for the previous two seasons. He’s rested and recovered from the Giro d’Italia however must obtain one thing the biking world hasn’t seen for the reason that late 90s if he’s to say the Giro-Tour double.
The ultimate key warm-up races have been accomplished on the Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse, with solely the upcoming nationwide championships weekend left to point out race kind.
An extended-awaited return to GC successful kind for Primož Roglič got here on the Dauphiné alongside an ideal costume rehearsal for his Bora-Hansgrohe domestiques. Nevertheless it wasn’t with out drama as he solely narrowly hung onto his lead by eight seconds, so he nonetheless had some work to do for the Tour.
The Tour de Suisse wasn’t as shut or dramatic, with two of Pogačar’s tremendous domestiques for the Tour, Adam Yates and João Almeida dominating the sphere in each uphill take a look at. This solely additional solidified Pogačar’s standing as outright favorite however Vingegaard’s now-confirmed look might throw a spanner within the works for the Slovenian.
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With that in thoughts, right here is the third 2024 instalment of our rating of the favourites for Tour victory.
- Staff: UAE Staff Emirates
- Tour Expertise: Winner 2020 & 2021, runner-up 2022 & 2023, 11 stage wins
- 2024 outcomes: 1st Giro d’Italia, 1st Liège-Bastogne-Liège, 1st Volta a Catalunya, 1st Strade Bianche, 14 wins
Each time Tadej Pogačar pins on a race quantity, he seems to be on the cusp of constructing historical past, be that taking his sixth Monument at 25 or successful the Giro d’Italia by the most important margin since 1965. However the upcoming Tour de France presents maybe his greatest problem but – turning into the primary to finish the elusive Giro-Tour double since Marco Pantani in 1998.
Regardless of all his dominance in 2024, Pogačar hasn’t donned the yellow jersey since Jonas Vingegaard and Jumbo-Visma ripped it from his again up the Col du Granon through the 2022 version. Nevertheless, with the Dane confirmed to begin however in unknown kind, he appears each bit prone to be a part of the likes of Greg LeMond on three Tour de France wins.
Pogačar was stronger than ever on the Giro, particularly on the hardest mountain phases and time trials. However now the Tour is only a matter of days away and it’ll grow to be evident whether or not it merely is just too exhausting to dominate six weeks on the highest degree in biking’s trendy period.
Froome, Contador and Dumoulin all obtained shut however failed, nevertheless, none of them appeared as prone to grow to be the eighth rider to do it as Pogačar does now.
Vingegaard’s now-confirmed presence is the most important risk to Pogačar’s pursuit of yellow, as regardless of the Slovenian cracking a number of instances underneath the Dane’s superior climbing stress previously two Excursions, he’s crushed the next-best rider by greater than three and a half minutes. Solely Vingegaard appears able to stopping him.
Pogačar was excited to see him, nevertheless, able to placed on one other present together with his rival. “It is good to see him at the beginning. I feel he is prepared as a result of in any other case, I do not suppose he’d be at the beginning,” Pogačar stated. “It is one thing I am wanting ahead to – making an important present once more.”
The opposite huge improvement was Pogačar revealing in his pre-race press convention that he contracted COVID-19 round 10 days in the past. However he appears greater than prepared and acknowledged that it barely affected him, admitting in one other interview that he is “by no means felt so good on the bike” within the run-up to his fifth Tour de France.
Pogačar is a good distance from the ultimate podium in Good however these subsequent three weeks might additional cement his legacy. Roche, Indurain and Pantani have been the final, is Pogačar the subsequent? It’s about time to search out out.
- Staff: Visma-Lease a Bike
- Tour Expertise: Winner 2022 & 2023, runner-up 2021, 3 stage wins
- 2024 outcomes: 1st Tirreno Adriatico, 1st O Gran Camiño, 7 wins
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) has jumped from an honourable point out again to the second favorite for the Tour, due to his crew Visma-Lease a Bike ending all of the weeks of hypothesis and confirming that he’ll defend his title on June 20.
The information of the season got here after the two-time defending Tour champion stepped up from gentle driving in Mallorca to high-altitude in Tignes at the beginning of June, first being joined by Wout van Aert after which these confirmed for the Tour de France at Visma’s often-used coaching location.
With the affirmation now in, and regardless of all of Visma’s harm woes in 2024, Vingegaard will tackle the Tour in pursuit of a 3rd title alongside a star-studded crew. Wout van Aert was confirmed in the identical launch and the remainder of the crew can be made up of Matteo Jorgenson, Tiesj Benoot, Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte, Wilco Kelderman, Jan Tratnik and Bart Lemmen.
That final identify being the important thing one, Lemmen – who got here in to switch Sepp Kuss after the American and key tremendous domestique for Vingegaard was compelled to drag out of the race because of COVID-19 earlier than the beginning.
Nevertheless, even together with his place on the roster, what’s nonetheless unknown is his form. The narrative surrounding Vingegaard from Visma had at all times been that he wouldn’t begin until he was 100% match and in a position to compete for a 3rd win. However Visma sportive director Merijn Zeeman modified his tune lately and acknowledged that it hinges on Vingegaard being “aggressive”, relatively than “preventing for yellow.
Vingegaard himself is after all uncertain of how his physique will react to a few weeks of the hardest racing, with a troublesome parcours from the beginning in Florence proper to the end in Good with the ultimate stage time trial.
“I am simply glad to be right here at the beginning line of the Tour de France. I feel that is a victory in itself. I am very glad and searching ahead to the race now,” stated Vingegaard pre-race to reporters.
“I need to go for the very best end in GC. However to be sincere, it was a really, very dangerous crash, so simply to be right here, I am very glad, and that is a victory in itself. Every part from here’s a bonus.”
He’ll have to refind his race rhythm immediately on the opening duo of punchy Italian phases with a hellish take a look at arriving rapidly on stage 4, which options the fabled Col du Galibier. Indicators are wanting good for Vingegaard however Visma have been cautious to foretell whether or not he’d problem the highest step of the rostrum and if he’s to defeat Tadej Pogačar (UAE Staff Emirates) for a 3rd time operating, he’ll have to be at his very best. The primary week might reveal all.
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- Staff: Crimson Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe
- Tour Expertise: Runner-up 2020, 4th 2018, 3 stage wins
- 2024 outcomes: 1st & 2 stage wins Critérium du Dauphiné, stage win Itzulia Basque Nation, 4 wins
Primož Roglič was nicely and actually again in June, firing on all cylinders with new crew Crimson Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe on the Critérium du Dauphiné to take general victory. It wasn’t and not using a scare on the ultimate stage as Roglič solely held onto his GC lead by eight seconds from Matteo Jorgenson however he might take nice positives from the race.
The Slovenian netted back-to-back wins on phases 6 and seven and it was harking back to the perfect Roglič. Out of the saddle, within the drops and sprinting uphill to the road for each bonus second he might get. The one distinction was his inexperienced Bora jersey and people supporting him.
Grand Tour winner Jai Hindley and former top-five finisher on the Tour Aleksandr Vlasov took up the mantle of pacing as much as Le Collet d’Allevard and Samoëns 1600. Given their very own reputations as high climbers, it shouldn’t have been a shock how robust they have been however the trio’s chemistry appeared like that of a well-oiled, skilled climbing core – not riders who had accomplished underneath 10 race days collectively.
The Dauphiné quelled a lot of the doubt forged over Roglič’s kind after he solely managed tenth at Paris-Good and following his return from harm after Itzulia Basque Nation. He did sadly go down within the mass crash on stage 5 and together with his crash historical past, can be hoping that was the final of the dangerous luck.
It is essential to notice that his new crew have entered a brand new period themselves, with the official launch of Crimson Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe arriving the week earlier than the Tour. New kits, rebranded bikes and the promise of an even bigger finances with the drinks firm big getting into the WorldTour – Crimson Bull can be anticipating huge issues of Roglič and the entire crew.
If he can keep rubber-side down, Roglič and Pogačar will face off on the Tour and at a stage race for the primary time for the reason that 2022 version. Their final head-to-head for Tour victory got here on the dramatic 2020 race when Roglič appeared to have the higher of his compatriot till a dramatic activate the stage 20 time trial as much as La Planche des Belles Filles. 4 years on and it could possibly be a race in opposition to the clock to Good which secures Roglič and Crimson Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe their dream win.
- Staff: Soudal Fast-Step
- Tour Expertise: Debutant
- 2024 outcomes: seventh & stage win Critérium du Dauphiné, 2nd & stage win Paris-Good, 1st Volta ao Algarve, 5 wins
Maybe one of many most anticipated Tour de France debuts in years is about to begin as Remco Evenepoel gears as much as tackle his maiden Tour after coming back from harm. He performed down any likelihood at difficult general victory at his first Critérium du Dauphiné with a damaged collarbone and scapula hampering any form of excellent run into June.
However after a blistering victory on the stage 3 time trial forward of European Champion Josh Tarling and Olympic Champion Roglič, any questions of shoulder stiffness in his ‘aero bullet’ place have been answered. Evenepoel dominated the 34km effort within the rainbow bands and moved into the chief’s jersey with a 30-second buffer over Roglič.
His earlier statements have been confirmed when he obtained dropped on phases 6,7 and eight as he suffered behind these not on the journey again from fractures or in higher form. However there wasn’t the capitulation from final 12 months’s Vuelta the place an terrible day on the Col d’Aubisque ended his title defence. As a substitute, we noticed Evenepoel the fighter emerge within the background, pacing his efforts nicely and holding onto seventh general.
The added bonus of Mikel Landa’s expertise aided the younger Belgian and having twice taken fourth on the Tour, Landa can be important for Evenepoel to have a profitable debut.
Evenepoel proved that he might cling on after being dropped, even managing to scale back his deficits within the ultimate few kilometres of key mountain phases. It was a great signal for the Tour, whereas he additionally nonetheless had sufficient time from the Dauphiné to return to tip-top race form forward of June 29.
It might not find yourself with the dream podium Evenepoel needed come the finale in Good however the former World Champion is actually going to provide it a great crack. He’ll be eyeing up the stage 7 and 21 time trials on this 12 months’s Tour de France route both approach and these could possibly be the important thing to shifting him up on GC with near 60 kilometres in opposition to the clock on the menu.
He was life like talking pre-race, with Pogačar seen because the favorite in his eyes. “I count on Tadej to be unreachable, nearly,” Evenepoel stated.
“I feel what he confirmed within the Giro is already tremendous spectacular and he did not need to go too deep, so it will not have drained him out. I feel Tadej would be the man to beat for this Tour de France.”
- Staff: Ineos Grenadiers
- Tour Expertise: fifth 2023, 1 stage win
- 2024 outcomes: 4th & stage win Critérium du Dauphiné, 1st Tour de Romandie, 2nd & stage win Itzulia Basque Nation, 3 wins
Racing in June solely confirmed extra that Carlos Rodríguez must be Ineos Grenadiers’ out-and-out chief on the Tour, after one other spectacular one-week show on the Critérium du Dauphiné.
Rodríguez added a stage win in France to at least one from Itzulia Basque Nation in April and the general victory on the Tour de Romandie, displaying that the Andalucian has stayed constant all through his build-up to the 2024 Tour.
It was additionally most likely the toughest day on the Dauphiné to win, with seven days of continually undulating roads within the legs and back-to-back-to-back powerful mountain exams bringing the race to an in depth. Nevertheless, Rodríguez solely managed fourth general behind Roglič, Jorgenson and shock GC bundle Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech). And that is no disrespect to Gee, who was merely glorious from begin to end on the Dauphiné, however Rodríguez would count on to beat him. Not to mention end 24 seconds down.
The largest downside for the Ineos man was actually the stage 4 time trial, the place Gee beat him but in addition Evenepoel and Roglič completed approach up on his time, 1:41 and 1:02 respectively.
With 59 ITT kilometres incoming all through the Tour’s three weeks, Rodríguez can be hoping to restrict the injury to the massive 4 favourites who all excel in TTs. He’ll know he has to enter the times in opposition to the clock with a bonus over fellow podium challengers if he’s to grow to be the primary Spaniard to complete within the high three since Alejandro Valverde in 2015. Nevertheless, he’s solely 23 so nonetheless has his greatest legs forward of him and the white jersey could possibly be an actual goal with Pogačar not younger sufficient to qualify.
He was later confirmed as co-leader alongside 2019 Tour winner Egan Bernal, with Tom Pidcock and Geraint Thomas set to play help roles all through the three weeks.
- Staff: UAE Staff Emirates
- Tour Expertise: third 2023, ninth 2022, 4th 2016, 1 stage win
- 2024 outcomes: 1st & 2 stage wins Tour de Suisse, 1st & stage win Tour of Oman, 5 wins
Adam Yates’ podium end eventually 12 months’s Tour demonstrated that he’s greater than merely a luxurious domestique, however a possible auxiliary chief ought to mishap befall Pogačar.
The Briton loved a stellar 12 months in his first season at UAE Staff Emirates, successful the UAE Tour, Tour de Romandie and the GP Montréal, and he began his 2024 marketing campaign on a equally buoyant word by conquering Inexperienced Mountain to take general victory on the Tour of Oman.
A concussion sustained in a crash on the UAE Tour, nevertheless, set again Yates’ progress, and after being stored out of Tirreno-Adriatico, the subsequent step for the Briton was to return to racing on the Giro d’Abruzzo and The Tour of Romandie. However he wasn’t but again at his greatest and primarily labored for teammates.
This made June extremely essential for Yates, who proved the rider who got here third eventually 12 months’s Tour was able to take issues on once more. He dominated the Tour de Suisse alongside teammate João Almeida, netting 4 stage wins and 4 1-2 finishes between them. However Yates was the general winner, holding onto his lead even after the ultimate mountain TT regardless of Almeida’s proficiency within the self-discipline.
Yates’ huge expertise within the Tour de France, relationship again to when he positioned fourth in 2016 and took the perfect younger rider’s classification, already made him a stable guess for robust performances every July, however his third place and stage win final 12 months gave an enormous increase to his credibility as a contender. There have been query marks about the place he would fare this summer time after his concussion however after his Suisse efficiency, the rostrum or top-five actually appears potential once more.
- Staff: UAE Staff Emirates
- Tour Expertise: Debutant
- 2024 outcomes: 2nd & 2 stage wins Tour de Suisse, ninth Volta a Catalunya, 2 wins
In our final replace to this way rating, this spot was beforehand taken by Almeida’s teammate Juan Ayuso because the 21-year-old Spanish star appeared set to star on Debut because the Tour as a part of Pogačar’s tremendous squad. However a crash for Ayuso on the Dauphiné and a resurgence to high kind for Almeida has brought about the swap.
Each can be a part of Pogačar’s star-studded mountain prepare behind final man Yates however inspiration from the Brit’s podium end in 2023 ought to depart them assured of attaining their very own objectives whereas working for the Slovenian.
This most closely fits Almeida purely due to how he races and particularly, how he tackles climbs. There’s by no means an enormous acceleration from the Portuguese rider however merely a capability to endure the struggling extra. Almeida has made a reputation for himself not solely as a Giro d’Italia podium finisher however as an important tempo climber, usually driving his personal tempo and seemingly at all times discovering a second wind up the toughest mountains.
As soon as his work is finished and he fingers over to Yates, count on to see him within the background, choosing off those that drop underneath the stress of his chief Pogačar, and dealing as much as a stable GC place.
Almeida could possibly be invaluable for Pogačar on the Tour after proving a wonderful and selfless teammate for Yates in Switzerland as they managed a 1-2 on GC with none squabbles. He could need to empty himself occasionally, nevertheless, in order that places him decrease down than different favourites.
He’s no slouch in time trials both having received the mountain TT on the Tour de Suisse, alongside a summit end to Blatten. Ayuso equally excels in opposition to the clock and the pair might very simply swap positions in Pogačar’s prepare. It is not out of the query that UAE might have 4 riders within the high 10 come the Tour’s conclusion in Good.
- Staff: Visma-Lease a Bike
- Tour expertise: twentieth 2022, 5 stage high 10s
- 2024 outcomes: 2nd Critérium du Dauphiné, 1st Dwars door Vlaanderen, 1st Paris-Good, 2 wins
Matteo Jorgenson has undoubtedly been one of many breakthrough riders in 2024. To not say he wasn’t already an enormous expertise within the Classics however his GC inventory has risen immensely since March, notching the win at Paris-Good and backing it up with second place on the Critérium du Dauphiné earlier this month.
Now a three-week Grand Tour is an entire different beast however nothing Jorgenson has executed in 2024 has prompt he received’t be capable to deal with it. In actual fact, his versatility and consistency all through each one-week races would truly level in direction of him being an important choice for the Tour.
He completed within the high 10 of six of the seven contested phases on the Dauphiné, solely crossing the road decrease down on the opening dash stage. Jorgenson then solely narrowly missed out on the general victory to Roglič however his duo of second locations on the ultimate two days confirmed how harmful he’s as a contender.
Vingegaard will after all be high of the hierarchy for Visma now that he’s confirmed to take the beginning and Jorgenson can be greater than keen to fold right into a domestique function for the Dane. But when the defending champion would not make it again to aggressive kind rapidly and falls away on GC, the American can be able to step up.
He will not have compatriot and defending Vuelta champion Sepp Kuss for firm on the Tour, who deserted because of COVID-19, making him the one doubtless rider at Visma able to stepping up in GC ought to Vingegaard not be capable to maintain the powerful three weeks. However Jorgenson’s robust dash and prowess within the time trial make him a greater than worthy second choice ought to the Dutch crew require him.
- Staff: Ineos Grenadiers
- Tour expertise: Winner 2019
- 2024 outcomes: 4th Tour de Suisse, third Volta a Catalunya, ninth Paris-Good
Egan Bernal is one among 4 former Tour winners lining up on the Tour as he continues to work again up the extent which secured him the yellow jersey in 2019, and the 2024 season has solely been a narrative of success for the Colombian.
Two years on from his horror coaching crash which was nearly life and career-ending, Bernal is a constant high finisher at one-week WorldTour phases, taking ninth at Paris-Good, third at Catalunya, tenth at Romandie and 4th at Suisse in latest months.
His final two Grand Tour appearances noticed him end thirty sixth and fifty fifth as he was on that aforementioned journey again as much as high form however 2024 might lastly be the 12 months he returns to biking’s greatest stage.
His most up-to-date race on the Tour de Suisse noticed him because the third-best climber on the race, solely slipping right down to fourth on the ultimate stage because of a poor mountain time trial. This does not bode nicely for the Tour with, as talked about, the duo of time trials prone to be an enormous distinction maker. However his climbing legs look near their peak.
Bernal is barely so low down the favourites listing because of the younger Rodríguez wanting like a greater all-around bundle for now at Ineos. However he can make use of all that have gained from truly successful the Tour so he’s to not be sniffed at as a competitor.
One other good signal for Bernal that he was introduced as co-leader with Rodríguez in Ineos’ roster reveal, assured that the Colombian has stepped up sufficient to problem for the highest GC sports activities with the younger Spaniard.
The chasing pack
Main our listing of honourable mentions is the fourth-place finisher from the 2023 Tour de France, Simon Yates (AlUla). Solely low down as a result of there simply isn’t a lot kind to go off. Yates has opted to coach all through Might and June as an alternative of racing, together with his final look earlier than the Tour being the Tour de Romandie, the place he was eleventh. He discovered career-best kind taking an analogous strategy to take fourth behind twin Adam final season, although, so why not belief the method? It additionally could also be his ultimate Tour with the Australian squad with a rumoured transfer to Visma-Lease a Bike coming subsequent 12 months.
Alongside Rodríguez it is Enric Mas (Movistar) who represents Spain’s GC hopes on the Tour de France this 12 months. He’s been his comparable constant but unspectacular greatest in 2024 to this point, with one other high 10 end in his most up-to-date race, the Tour de Suisse. However he was approach off the tempo of Yates and Almeida, some 5 minutes again after the eight days. It’s the time trials which is able to kill off Mas’s possibilities, nevertheless as a really stable Grand Tour rider – with seven top-six completed within the 9 Grand Excursions he’s accomplished – count on him to be there or thereabouts in France.
Richard Carapaz (EF Schooling-EasyPost) ought to realistically be approach increased on this listing as a former Grand Tour winner and podium finisher on the Tour behind Vingegaard and Pogačar in 2021. Nevertheless, his kind merely hasn’t been there in 2024, with crashes and accidents stymieing his skill to steer EF as he was signed to do. His most up-to-date look noticed him abandon the latest Tour de Suisse after sustaining a face harm simply. And it was a crash on stage 1 that dominated him out of final 12 months’s Tour. But when he can get a clear run on the 21 phases, he’s a fierce and savvy GT competitor.
Jai Hindley and Aleksandr Vlasov (Crimson Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) could possibly be increased ranked in a similar way to Yates and Almeida at UAE or Jorgenson at Visma. Nevertheless, if their techniques from the Dauphiné have been something to go off, then the skilled GT pair will empty all of their reserves for Roglič. The Russian did maintain onto a top-six end after placing in unimaginable pulls for Roglič’s two stage wins however Hindley, the 2022 Giro winner, was executed lengthy earlier than the summit finishes and fell to twentieth general by the tip of the week.
Extra Spanish hopes to achieve the rostrum come within the type of Pello Bilbao (Bahrain-Victorious). Bilbao completed sixth in final 12 months’s race due to a surprising win from the break on stage 10. He’s additionally netted high 10s in every of his three final Grand Excursions and has hit the best kind simply forward of the race with second general on the Tour of Slovenia. He’ll be aided by skilled Bahrain-Victorious teammates Jack Haig and Wout Poels, with proficient younger Colombian Santiago Buitrago providing a second GC choice.
A brand new addition to the listing of honourable mentions, and the most important shock on right here, is Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech). The 2023 breakthrough star went from Giro d’Italia breakaway hope to a practical GC contender on the Critérium du Dauphiné, solely shedding out to Roglič and Jorgenson. Gee stunned himself on the toughest climbing days after scoring a maiden WorldTour win on stage 3, even pacing on the entrance for too lengthy as he entered unknown territory. Gee not solely has big willpower but in addition an enormous TT engine on his aspect and for Gee, the perfect factor is that it may be a primary Grand Tour GC journey with none stress.
It feels barely felony having no French rider on the listing of high contenders however that’s merely the present panorama of French GC ambitions for the Tour de France. David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) is maybe the perfect guess having taken fourth on the Tour simply two years in the past and ninth final 12 months, however he’s not proven that form shortly. He hasn’t cracked the highest 10 of a stage race this season and like a lot of these talked about above, the time trial kilometres are an actual killer for his hopes.
Romain Bardet (DSM-Firmenich PostNL) has proven higher kind in 2024 with second at Liège-Bastogne-Liège and ninth eventually month’s Giro, nevertheless, it is now seven years since he scored back-to-back podiums on the Tour and people legs are not. It might even be his final Tour earlier than retiring so a push for a ultimate stage win or the King of the Mountains jersey could also be a extra fascinating ambition.
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