The primary half of the 2024 MLB season is drawing to a detailed, and seven Nationwide League groups are firmly within the combine for a wild-card spot. Though this could arrange a second half crammed with drama and intrigue, some wild-card hopefuls are already cementing themselves as true postseason threats, whereas others are fortunate to nonetheless be in playoff rivalry.
Just a few of those groups will certainly make enhancements earlier than the July 30 commerce deadline, however for now, this is who’s rising as contenders and pretenders within the NL wild-card race.
(All statistics and data are by Sunday’s video games.)
Atlanta Braves (49-39, first wild-card spot)
It hasn’t been the kind of offensive season that we have come to anticipate from the Braves, who’re twelfth within the majors in residence runs (100) and thirteenth in OPS (.713). Nonetheless, their capacity to beat season-ending accidents to Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider has been one of many extra spectacular storylines in baseball.
Atlanta’s pitching, significantly the performances of Reynaldo Lopez (1.71 ERA) and Chris Sale (2.71), has been a key motive why the group has been in a position to keep afloat, because it ranks eighth in starter ERA (3.69). Moreover, Atlanta’s bullpen has been among the best within the majors, rating second in ERA (2.97) amongst groups.
It is perhaps tough to shut the hole on the division-leading Phillies, but when they add an impression bat on the deadline, anticipate the Braves to make some noise within the postseason.
Verdict: Contender
Arizona Diamondbacks (45-45, two wild-card video games again)
The Diamondbacks entered this season with the best payroll in franchise historical past and even larger expectations after they made a stunning run to the 2023 World Sequence. Whereas it nonetheless has a lot of the items from that group, Arizona was 52-38 on this date final yr in comparison with the 45-45 file it now holds.
So, what precisely has been the distinction on this season’s group? The reply is undoubtedly Arizona’s lackluster pitching workers.
Offensively, the Diamondbacks have been one of many higher groups in baseball this season, rating eighth in OPS (.737), although they’ve mixed to publish the second-worst group ERA within the majors (4.65). Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez (shoulder) could possibly be again within the rotation quickly, however even his return will not be sufficient to assist the Diamondbacks embark on a powerful sufficient run to surpass the groups holding wild-card spots.
Verdict: Pretender
New York Mets (44-44, two wild-card video games again)
After falling to 11 video games beneath .500 on Might 30, the Mets have seemingly remodeled into a special group, and it hasn’t simply been on account of a sure purple McDonald’s mascot. Shortstop Francisco Lindor and catcher Francisco Alvarez have been the true driving forces for New York, which has been averaging the second-most runs per sport amongst groups since June 1 (5.94).
Lindor’s early season struggles finally value him a spot within the 2024 MLB All-Star Recreation, however since transferring to the leadoff spot on Might 18, the 30-year-old is slashing .301/.361/.527 with eight residence runs and 24 RBI. In the meantime, Alvarez has confirmed to be the guts and soul of the Mets, with the group posting a 27-12 file with him within the lineup versus a 17-32 mark with out him. The Mets should handle their disastrous bullpen state of affairs within the coming weeks, however their new-look offense needs to be sufficient to propel them to the ultimate wild-card spot.
Verdict: Contender
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-47, 4.5 wild-card video games again)
A rotation led by Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones may be the deciding issue within the playoffs, however Pittsburgh’s roster holes might stop the group from making it there. The Pirates offense has been flat for a lot of the season, with the group rating twenty third in runs scored (362) and twenty seventh in OPS (.665). The bullpen hasn’t fared properly both, because it boasts a 4.52 ERA, the fourth-worst within the majors.
Whereas the Pirates aren’t sometimes patrons on the commerce deadline, this season could possibly be a uncommon exception, although it might finally go to waste. Not solely will or not it’s nearly unattainable for Pittsburgh to make the mandatory upgrades to solidify itself as a playoff group, however in accordance with Tankathon, it additionally has the fifth-most tough remaining schedule in MLB.
The Pirates will probably be a significant risk within the NL Central for the foreseeable future, but it surely’s laborious to think about their eight-year playoff drought ending this season.
Verdict: Pretender
San Diego Padres (49-45, third wild-card spot)
Had star outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. not gone down with a stress response in his proper leg final month, the Padres is perhaps inside hanging distance of the Dodgers for the NL West lead. San Diego has surprisingly been in a position to compensate for the offseason departure of Juan Soto, thanks in giant to the emergence of All-Star outfielders Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill.
The Padres rank ninth in OPS, eighth in runs scored and second in batting common however have been underwhelming pitching-wise, with the group posting a 4.16 ERA, the Twentieth-best within the majors. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller isn’t any stranger to creating splashy deadline offers. If he has one other up his sleeve for a beginning pitcher like Detroit’s Jack Flaherty, the Padres ought to have the expertise to contend for a World Sequence title.
Verdict: Contender
San Francisco Giants (44-47, 3.5 wild-card video games again)
The Giants have been one of many greatest spenders in free company this previous winter, however accidents have largely prevented them from attaining constant success. The current returns of beginning pitchers Kyle Harrison and Blake Snell, in addition to the approaching return of Robbie Ray, arrange a captivating commerce deadline for San Francisco. In all probability, the Giants will probably be patrons so their offseason efforts aren’t wasted, although their upcoming stretch of video games will decide whether or not that is the case.
At this level, nevertheless, it is tough to say the middling Giants could make any noteworthy additions to raise them to true wild-card rivalry. General, the group ranks twenty fifth in group ERA (4.44), 14th in runs scored (402) and fifteenth in OPS (.703).
Verdict: Pretender
St. Louis Cardinals (47-42, second wild-card spot)
Just like the Mets, it wasn’t way back that the Cardinals have been thought of an afterthought within the NL wild-card race. Nonetheless, a strong month of June has helped the group safe a wild-card spot in the interim and put St. Louis ready to be a purchaser on the commerce deadline. Even so, regardless of their current surge, the Cardinals have a number of areas of the roster to enhance, as they nonetheless rank 18th in OPS (.689) and twenty first in starter ERA (4.39).
St. Louis has the offensive expertise to get by with out including a difference-making bat on the deadline, but it surely should purchase a high quality beginning pitcher. USA In the present day’s Bob Nightengale not too long ago reported that rival executives imagine the reigning champion Rangers will make right-hander Max Scherzer accessible forward of the commerce deadline. If the Cardinals can convey the Chesterfield, Missouri native to St. Louis, they need to have what it takes to qualify for the postseason.
Verdict: Contender
