Whereas the guide isn’t utterly shut on the 2024 Cincinnati Reds, with a 0.3% projected likelihood of creating the postseason coming into this week, solely a plot twist out of left subject might change the story. At 82-80, the 2023 Reds weren’t precisely good, however after coming into the season with a bleak outlook, they comfortably beat most expectations. Provided that their enhancements final 12 months largely got here from their younger expertise slightly than short-term signings, it wasn’t unreasonable again in March to imagine this staff might contend for a postseason berth. 5 months later, because the Reds look extra prone to play the position of spoiler in September than make it to October, now looks like a high-quality time to contemplate the place they need to go from right here.
Step one can be to ask ourselves what had been the affordable expectations for the Reds in 2024. The ZiPS projections gave them an 80-82 document, however with sufficient uncertainty that if issues broke their method, they might make a playoff push (35.1% odds). One man’s digital monstrosity isn’t the one honest outlook, after all, however our depth charts and Baseball Prospectus each had Cincinnati in an identical place, at 79 wins.
Proper now, our depth charts and ZiPS have the Reds ending with a 77-85 document, a disappointing end result, however not precisely a large miss relative to the projections above. If we’re going to determine the place the Reds go from right here, we first have to know how they obtained so far, and meaning trying again on the classes they drew from their 82 wins final 12 months.
Based mostly on their offseason strikes, it seems the group determined – little doubt some unknown mixture of possession and the entrance workplace – that the overall method was to remain the course with their younger expertise and make mid-tier free agent signings to fill the staff’s most urgent holes. The Reds made no vital trades over the winter, except you rely sending pitcher Daniel Duarte to the Rangers for money in January after designating him for task as vital. It wasn’t till practically Opening Day that the staff made a transfer that might have an precise impact on the roster, choosing up Santiago Espinal from the Blue Jays within the aftermath of the Noelvi Marte suspension.
Excluding the Espinal commerce, the gamers signed in free company made up the whole thing of the exterior enhancements from 2023 to 2024. Suffice it to say, I used to be not a fan of the precise signings they made. To sum up my common emotions on the time, I assumed Jeimer Candelario was the proper participant for the unsuitable staff. It doesn’t make a lot sense for a staff overloaded with third basemen to signal a participant who’s most respected as a 3rd baseman after which make him a mediocre first baseman. On the pitching aspect, Emilio Pagán was a catastrophe ready to occur, and $13 million was quite a bit to present Nick Martinez. Different pitcher signings made extra sense: Brent Suter was a very good addition and Frankie Montas was an inexpensive gamble. The signings didn’t go precisely as I anticipated – some had been worse, some had been higher – however they actually didn’t do a lot to enhance the membership.
2023-2024 Free Agent Signings – Cincinnati Reds
| Participant | Projected Depth Chart WAR | 2024 WAR | Depth Chart Closing 2024 WAR | Contract AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | 1.9 | -0.3 | -0.2 | $15.0M |
| Nick Martinez | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.8 | $13.0M |
| Brent Suter | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | $3.0M |
| Emilio Pagán | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | $8.0M |
| Buck Farmer | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | $2.3M |
| Luke Maile | 0.6 | -0.5 | -0.5 | $3.5M |
| Austin Wynns | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | $900K |
| Frankie Montas | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | $16.0M |
| Justin Wilson | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | $1.5M |
| TOTAL | 7.3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | $63.2M |
As a gaggle, the free brokers have carried out a bit worse than projected, however not alarmingly so. By the tip of the 12 months, we venture these 9 free brokers to be value 5.1 WAR to the Reds, in comparison with the 7.3 WAR that was predicted. Two wins wouldn’t have salvaged Cincinnati’s season.
Accidents to among the younger expertise has actually hindered the Reds. Matt McLain, who made a convincing case for being one of many staff’s foundational abilities final 12 months, injured his shoulder within the spring and has but to play for Cincinnati this season. Christian Encarnacion-Strand didn’t get the prospect to make up for his chilly begin as a result of he underwent season-ending surgical procedure in July after fracturing his proper wrist in Could, and whereas it’s not an damage, the staff went with out Marte for 80 video games after he was suspended for performance-enhancing medication.
Nevertheless, the Reds additionally obtained some spectacular breakouts on the flip aspect to compensate. For as thrilling as they’re, Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene weren’t anticipated to be on this 12 months’s MVP and Cy Younger races, although that’s the place they stand in late August.
Furthermore, accidents alone didn’t cease Cincinnati in its tracks. I ran the numbers on time misplaced to accidents two weeks in the past, and the Reds ranked eleventh out of 30 groups in potential worth misplaced to damage, at 6.46 wins, proper consistent with the imply (6.5 wins) and a half-win greater than median (six wins).
That leaves us with the conclusion that the Reds didn’t battle this season as a result of they had been unfortunate; slightly, they did so as a result of they had been a roughly .500 staff when it comes to expertise and didn’t get fortunate. The trail ahead, then, is for possession and the entrance workplace to acknowledge this to allow them to work to enhance the staff within the offseason as a substitute of staying the course once more and hoping for higher outcomes.
One a part of this 12 months’s plan — counting on the younger expertise — was justified and is value doing once more subsequent season, so long as the Reds reinforce their core with extra impactful veterans. Wanting on the projections for 2025 now versus the place they had been six months in the past, the Reds have misplaced a number of wins, however their basis continues to be fairly strong.
ZiPS 2025 Now vs. Preseason
(Rhett Lowder just isn’t included right here as a result of he didn’t get a preseason ZiPS projection this 12 months for 2025, so there can be nothing to check together with his present projection for subsequent season.)
After I run some very preliminary projections for the NL Central in 2025, primarily based on gamers who’re underneath staff management for subsequent season, the division seems to be quite a bit prefer it did on this 12 months’s the preseason projections, with all 5 groups roughly clustered across the .500 mark. That signifies that, with the proper strikes, the Reds might enhance their playoff odds significantly this offseason.
Their plan to paper over holes this season by shifting third basemen round has not been profitable: The staff ranks twenty fifth in outfield WAR and twenty eighth each in first base WAR and designated hitter WAR. Upgrading these positions with gamers who truly play them would go a great distance towards turning issues round. The rotation hasn’t been unhealthy this season, however it isn’t adequate because it’s at present constructed.
It’s value mentioning that the Reds did spend cash on their roster coming into this season, however they only didn’t achieve this successfully. Signing mid-tier free brokers once more this offseason received’t treatment the staff’s woes. Sure, possession virtually actually would balk on the thought of giving Juan Soto a clean test to play for Cincinnati, however it might be much more preposterous to spend the identical quantity to signal six gamers who’re barely above substitute stage, which is form of what the Reds did final winter.
Wanting forward, although the upcoming class of free brokers isn’t significantly deep, Cincinnati’s entrance workplace must strike the proper steadiness of high quality and amount. Corbin Burnes is without doubt one of the finest gamers obtainable, and the Reds ought to make a critical push to signal him. Blake Snell has been on such a roll after his tough begin to this season that it appears practically sure that he’ll decide out of his Giants contract. The Braves have but to increase Max Fried, so he appears sure at no cost company, too. And whereas they may fall quick, why shouldn’t the Reds go after Roki Sasaki if he will get posted this winter? In spite of everything, they made a bid to land Shohei Ohtani again when he was coming over from Japan.
On the offensive aspect, Anthony Santander would give the Reds the reputable middle-of-the-order bat within the outfield that they at present lack, as would Tyler O’Neill and Teoscar Hernández
We at present have the Reds with a assured payroll of slightly below $50 million for 2025, although that’s not together with arbitration awards. They actually have the power to go after gamers who would make an actual distinction and nonetheless have a payroll properly beneath that of the typical staff. A repeat of final winter’s method can be a catastrophe; extra of the identical will seemingly result in extra of the identical. The Reds fairly probably have extra upside than another staff within the NL Central, however the time’s come for them to select a path slightly than treading water.
