We’re Off to the Postseason Races

Right now is a vital day on the baseball calendar, though you won’t see or hear that talked about anyplace else. In some unspecified time in the future this night, doubtless round 10:30 PM Japanese, the seventh recreation of the evening will wrap up and the 2024 main league season will cross over into its second half, technically talking. Half of the two,430 video games on the common season schedule may have a winner and a loser, and the vast majority of the league’s 30 groups may have performed at the least 81 video games. To me, it’s the right time to examine in on the assorted postseason races across the league. Groups have had loads of time to show who they’re, however there’s simply as a lot time remaining for these narratives to vary fully. Let’s dive in.

To provide you a fast sense of how issues have modified since Opening Day, here’s a side-by-side comparability of the potential playoff discipline as decided by our preseason projections, the most well-liked picks from our preseason employees predictions, and what the playoffs would seem like if the season ended at present:

The present projected standings look fairly just like that last column, with two exceptions: the Astros are projected to beat out the Crimson Sox for the ultimate American League Wild Card spot, and the Padres and Cardinals are projected to swap locations within the second and third Nationwide League Wild Card positions.

Eight of the present playoff groups have been considered as preseason contenders by our employees, the projections, or each: the Yankees, Orioles, Twins, Mariners, Phillies, Braves, Cardinals and Dodgers. The one row that might win you any cash on a slot machine is the NL West, the place the Dodgers stay the overwhelming favorites. Nonetheless, all eight of these groups are in a great place to make the postseason. The Yankees, Orioles, Phillies, Braves, and Dodgers have postseason odds above 92%, whereas the Mariners sit at 76.1%, the Twins at 73.9%, and the Cardinals at 45%. As for the remaining playoff berths, preseason favorites just like the ever-competitive Astros and Rays, the pennant-holding Rangers and Diamondbacks, and the new-look Giants have struggled to breach the .500 mark. In the meantime, a number of surprising contenders, just like the Guardians, Crimson Sox, Royals, and Brewers, have popped as much as make issues extra fascinating.

Of the three AL division races, the best to foretell proper now appears to be like just like the AL Central. The Guardians, who completed 76-86 final season and whose largest splash on the free agent market was Austin Hedges, have 69.0% odds to win their division, barely larger than these of the Yankees (65.7%) and Mariners (63.4%). Cleveland has an eight-game lead over Minnesota and a nine-game lead over Kansas Metropolis, and though our rest-of-season projections nonetheless see the Twins as probably the most proficient workforce within the division – they’ve outperformed the Guardians in batting worth (wRAA), baserunning worth (BsR), defensive worth (Def), and pitching worth (WAR) – an eight-game deficit is difficult to come back again from, regardless of what number of sausages you retain within the dugout.

The races within the AL East and West ought to show to be a lot nearer, though it’s up for debate the place probably the most compelling battle lies. New York and Baltimore are separated by a single recreation, whereas Seattle has a 4.5-game cushion over Houston. Nevertheless, our projections see the Yankees and Astros because the superior groups, so the Mariners may need simply as a lot hassle defending their 4.5-game lead because the Yankees do their one-game benefit.

The AL East may even doubtless decide the No. 1 seed within the AL, with the winner nearly certainly avoiding the Wild Card Sequence and securing dwelling discipline benefit at the least till the World Sequence. Conversely, the AL West winner is at the moment on monitor to be the No. 3 seed, which is much much less advantageous. That mentioned, the AL West race has the added intrigue of the Rangers, who aren’t fully out of the combination regardless of their 37-43 document. That is largely the identical workforce that gained the World Sequence simply final yr, and with a number of reinforcements who ought to come off the injured checklist throughout the second half, Texas might make a fairy story run on the division crown. The Rangers’ 4.6% division odds aren’t precisely promising, however that’s nearly precisely the place their World Sequence odds stood (4.6%) coming into the 2023 postseason. Don’t overlook, there’s an enormous distinction between zero and actually something larger than zero. However extra on that in a second.

Issues are somewhat extra simple within the NL, the place the chances, the standings, and customary sense all level to the NL Central because the closest division race. The Dodgers are one of the best workforce in baseball on paper, and with an 8.5-game lead within the NL West, their division odds are at 94.6%. In the meantime, the Phillies maintain an eight-game lead within the NL East, and so they have managed to persuade our rest-of-season projections that they’re roughly equal in expertise to the Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider-less Braves. The NL East rivals have 10 video games left to play in opposition to each other, so Atlanta nonetheless has management of its personal future. Nonetheless, Philadelphia’s division odds are 82.6%.

The Brewers are nonetheless the clear frontrunners within the NL Central – they’ve larger division odds (73.6%) than any workforce within the AL – however it’s a lot simpler to think about Milwaukee collapsing down the stretch than both Los Angeles or Philadelphia. The Cardinals, at the moment six video games again in second place, have barely higher rest-of-season projections. Extra importantly, I’d argue St. Louis has a better ground because of a way more dependable beginning rotation. A six-game lead with half the season left to play must be sufficient for the Brewers to say their third division title previously 4 years, however yet another beginning pitching damage may very well be the straw that breaks the camel’s again. Funnily sufficient, whereas this could be the closest division race down the stretch, it’s additionally going to be the least consequential; there’s a excessive probability the winner of the NL Central faces the runner-up within the first spherical of the NL playoffs.

In my humble opinion, the divisions will host the extra fascinating races over the second half of the season. Nevertheless, we’re in for some pleasure within the Wild Card races, too, given the sheer variety of groups within the combine. The Orioles and Braves are more likely to declare the highest spots within the AL and NL, however after that, issues get sophisticated rapidly. 5 groups are inside 4 video games of the ultimate Wild Card slots within the AL, whereas seven groups are at the least that shut within the NL. What’s extra, there are a handful of extra groups sitting additional again that I’m not able to say are fully out of the race.

If the season ended at present, the Twins would take the second AL Wild Card spot, whereas the Crimson Sox would beat out the Royals for the ultimate playoff berth by the tiniest decimal level. The Twins are performing roughly how most individuals anticipated, though the emergence of the Guardians has bumped them down from division favorites to Wild Card contenders by way of little fault of their very own. In the meantime, the disappointing performances of the Astros, Rays, Rangers, and Blue Jays have made room for surprisingly aggressive groups just like the Crimson Sox and Royals to enter the dialog. The Astros and Rays are shut sufficient and proficient sufficient that they’re nonetheless very a lot within the race, whereas the Rangers and Blue Jays are simply shut sufficient and simply proficient sufficient that I’m not going to jot down them off fully. I additionally really feel compelled to say the Tigers, a darkish horse candidate to contend coming into the season. They haven’t performed significantly properly this yr, however the race is shut sufficient that you may squint and say they’re nonetheless within the combine. On the very least, if we’re going to incorporate Texas and Toronto within the playoff image, we are able to’t ignore Detroit:

Issues are even nearer within the NL, the place seven groups are hovering round .500 and bumping up in opposition to each other within the Wild Card standings. That features contenders we anticipated, just like the Cardinals, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants; the marginally extra shocking Mets; and the plucky Pirates and Nationals. The Reds are 4.5 video games out, however they’re one among solely 4 groups within the Wild Card race with a constructive run differential (+6). Lastly, the Cubs are 5 video games again, with the third-worst document within the NL. That mentioned, they have been within the combine as a lot as anybody earlier than the season started, and so they nonetheless have the expertise to get again in it.

In the end, the Nationals (3.5 video games again) are nonetheless lengthy photographs, and it’s arduous to think about the Pirates staying within the race. It’s somewhat simpler to ascertain the Cubs or Reds placing collectively an enormous successful streak, however they’ve a number of groups to leapfrog earlier than they’re again within the playoff image. Nonetheless, that leaves 5 carefully matched groups competing for the ultimate two spots, with the potential for one more contender or two to make issues much more fascinating:

As crowded and unpredictable because the Wild Playing cards races appear, this won’t be so uncommon within the age of the 12-team playoff format. Round this time final yr, Chris Gilligan wrote in regards to the playoff race, noting how the sphere was extra bunched collectively than it had been in 2022. Right here’s what that regarded like:

And right here’s how issues look this yr, for comparability:

This yr’s distribution appears to be like much more just like the one from 2022 than 2023, with the very best bars on the very again and really entrance. The highest groups have separated themselves from the pack extra convincingly this yr than final, and 4 extra groups are within the bleak 0-10% playoff odds group. As Chris famous, 21 of the 30 golf equipment had between a ten% and 90% likelihood of creating the playoffs round this time final yr. At the moment, simply 14 of 30 groups sit inside that vary.

The primary half of the season tells us loads of what we have to know in regards to the playoff image. For instance, check out this side-by-side comparability of the 2023 playoff discipline in accordance with preseason projections, projections by way of video games on June 26, 2023, and precise outcomes:

Our 2023 preseason projections accurately predicted solely three division winners and 7 playoff groups. By this date final yr, the projections accurately recognized 5 of the six eventual playoff groups in every league.

On the identical time, there’s a cause they nonetheless play the video games within the second half. The Astros’ odds to win the AL West have been simply 22.2% this time final yr. These are worse odds than all three of the second-place golf equipment within the AL proper now. Furthermore, the Orioles’ odds within the AL East have been simply 7.6%. If they may flip these odds right into a division crown, I’m not counting out anybody this yr besides the Angels, White Sox, Athletics, Marlins, and Rockies.

Think about if I have been to let you know that once I examine the climate report within the morning, I exploit a easy heuristic to determine if I must take my umbrella out for the day. A 60% likelihood of rain or larger means it’s positively going to rain. A 30% likelihood of rain or decrease means it’s positively not going to rain. If that sounds foolish to you (and it ought to), then it might be simply as silly to make that assumption on the subject of playoff odds. The primary half of the 2024 season has offered us with loads of data to foretell the eventual playoff discipline, however when you don’t anticipate any surprises, you would possibly find yourself soaking moist.