As I write this earlier than the beginning of play on Could 23, we’re nearly a 3rd of the way in which by way of the season, and I don’t suppose we will keep away from it anymore. Jurickson Profar is batting .339 with a 178 wRC+. Jurickson Profar ranks tenth in baseball with 2.2 WAR. Jurickson Profar, who signed a one-year, $1 million contract on February 24. Jurickson Profar, who till this season averaged 0.8 WAR per 162 video games over 10 seasons, and final season put up -1.7 WAR, making him actually the least worthwhile participant in baseball. Jurickson Profar leads all certified Nationwide League gamers in on-base proportion (.431) and ranks within the prime 10 in batting common, slugging proportion (.517), RBI (32), and strikeout price (13.7%). Jurickson Profar.
(I say certified as a result of LaMonte Wade Jr. and his .481 OBP didn’t have sufficient plate appearances to be among the many league leaders. Naturally, between the time I wrote this put up and now, Wade crossed the qualification threshold, so Profar now ranks second.)
Right here’s one thing I wrote a pair months in the past:
“I think about that everyone right here at FanGraphs generates concepts for articles in numerous methods. Taking a look at leaderboards is definitely a typical methodology. You click on round, sorting by totally different stats till somebody appears to be like misplaced. ‘How did you get all the way in which up right here?’ is what the beginning of a FanGraphs article feels like.”
Effectively, right here we’re. How the identify of Bip Roberts did Jurickson Profar get all the way in which up right here?
I truthfully don’t know what the Padres had been anticipating after they introduced Profar again, however this couldn’t have been it. Let’s rapidly set up simply how out of character this run has been. Not solely has Profar by no means had a 52-game stretch like this, he’s by no means come shut. He’s operating a .949 OPS. Earlier than this season, his greatest 52-game span in a single season got here in 2018, when he ran an .882 OPS. That’s a 67-point distinction. Profar is batting .339, however till this season he’d by no means as soon as had a span this lengthy the place he hit above .300. Right here’s his 52-game rolling wRC+ for his complete profession. His earlier excessive got here on August 2, 2022. It was 31 factors decrease.
Proper off the bat, this graph tells us that after a horrible 2023 season, Profar was due for some regression of the nice type. He got here into this season with a profession wRC+ of 92, and that determine is 97 if we restrict it to his final six seasons. The good wager was that he was going to bounce again not less than a part of the way in which from final 12 months’s 76 wRC+ clunker.
There’s additionally one other apparent gimme: Luck. Profar has by no means completed a season with a BABIP above .300, however he’s presently at .371, tied for fourth highest in baseball. His .416 wOBA is 38 factors above his .378 xwOBA, a differential that places him within the prime 10 p.c of all batters. The two.3-homer distinction between Profar’s 4.7 anticipated house runs and seven precise house runs is the seventh-largest hole in baseball. Profar’s line drive price, which had by no means risen above 27.7% in a season, is presently at 32%. It’s unbelievable that Profar is squaring the ball up a lot, however line drive price can be notoriously fickle. We are able to and may anticipate all of those numbers to come back again down.
Profar is operating profession bests in each stroll price, 13.2%, and strikeout price, 13.7%. So as to get a deal with on how that has come about, I in contrast his plate self-discipline numbers from this 12 months to his common the 4 earlier seasons.
Profar’s Plate Self-discipline
| Season | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-2023 | 27.4% | 67.9% | 44.8% | 70.6% | 88.7% | 82.4% | 43.0% |
| 2024 | 28.6% | 70.1% | 45.7% | 66.2% | 91.7% | 82.3% | 41.0% |
As you possibly can see, he’s seeing fewer strikes, and he’s being a bit extra aggressive, particularly within the zone. He’s additionally making extra contact contained in the zone, however not exterior the zone. That final half is unsustainable. Individuals don’t normally get higher at making contact particularly on the pitches that they wish to hit anyway. When it does right itself, it can end in decrease stroll and strikeout charges, and extra weakly hit balls in play. Nonetheless, the numbers aren’t shouting something notably clear. In keeping with Statcast, Profar’s swing/take selections have been price 21 runs, simply the second time in his profession that it’s been a constructive quantity. That’s the fifth-highest mark in baseball, and it slots him proper between Mookie Betts and Juan Soto. Nevertheless, in keeping with SEAGER, Profar’s swing selections put him within the nineteenth percentile. Proper now, I simply wish to see an even bigger pattern dimension.
Profar has all the time been good at making contact, however to date this season, he’s doing so whereas hitting the ball more durable. That is the place issues get actual. Despite the fact that it’s propped up by a line drive price that’s too good to be true, a .378 xwOBA is a big leap for Profar, whose profession better of .338 got here through the quick 2020 season, when he put up a 113 wRC+. The switch-hitting Profar can be succeeding from each side of the plate, operating a 181 wRC+ as a lefty and a 172 wRC+ as a righty.
This season, Profar’s common exit velocity is a career-high 90.4 mph. Extra importantly, he’s seen an enormous leap in his ninetieth percentile exit velocity, going from 101.8 mph in each 2022 and 2023 to 104.5 this season. That moved him from the twenty fifth percentile to the 58th. His 40.8% hard-hit price is not only a profession greatest, nevertheless it’s the primary time he’s ever touched the fiftieth percentile. None of this is sufficient to make him an influence hitter or make a .517 slugging proportion sustainable, however it’s a severe leap, and people sorts of numbers are arduous to faux. Furthermore, they’re coming after some adjustments to Profar’s swing. From the left facet of the plate, Profar has modified up his stance considerably, beginning out way more open, with an even bigger bat waggle at a steeper angle. From each side of the plate, he’s gone from nearly no leg kick in any respect final 12 months to bringing his foot a number of inches off the bottom this 12 months.
Including a leg kick is a typical approach for a participant to attempt to enhance energy, and it definitely appears to be working for Profar to date. In keeping with Statcast’s new bat monitoring metrics, Profar is barely above common when it comes to squaring the ball up and barely under common when it comes to bat velocity. There’s no method to know the place he ranked in earlier seasons, however based mostly on all of this, I don’t suppose it could be loopy to provide him the good thing about the doubt and anticipate a few of this new exit velocity to stay.
There’s one final thing I’d like to think about. It’s potential that Profar is simply very completely satisfied to be house, or that he occurs to see the ball notably properly in San Diego. Profar has a profession 123 wRC+ in Petco Park. Over his time with the Padres from 2020 to 2023 (excluding his time with Colorado in 2023), he’s run a 113 wRC+ at house, in comparison with 96 on the highway. Even this season, he’s at 212 at house, in comparison with a (someway) comparatively pedestrian 149 on the highway. I wouldn’t put a ton of inventory in that concept, however there’s a risk that Profar simply feels snug at Petco.
So the place does all of this depart us? It undoubtedly doesn’t depart us pondering that Profar is now a true-talent .300/.400/.500 hitter. He’s due for some regression when it comes to BABIP, when it comes to line drive price, and when it comes to contact price exterior the zone. However, it does look like he may need discovered a method to hit for a bit extra energy with out sacrificing a lot in the way in which of contact means. We’ll have to attend and see the place precisely that leaves him.
