View from Manila: Howdy, Secretary Austin, goodbye 

Beneath a Trump presidency, it might be in Manila’s greatest curiosity to create a community that goes past its sole treaty-ally

MANILA, Philippines – United States Protection Secretary Lloyd Austin is within the Philippines this week, his second cease in a weeklong blitz across the Indo-Pacific. It is going to probably be amongst Austin’s final visits to the area earlier than his deliberate successor, Donald Trump’s protection chief choose Fox and Buddies Weekend anchor Pete Hegseth, takes over. 

In Manila on Monday, November 18, Austin and his Filipino counterpart Protection Secretary Gilberto Teodoro signed the long-awaited Basic Safety of Army Info Settlement, which might make real-time data sharing between the 2 treaty-allies swifter and extra environment friendly. 

Whereas in Camp Aguinaldo, the 2 protection chiefs additionally oversaw the groundbreaking of the bilateral Mixed Coordination Middle. “This new facility is a contemporary functionality designed to boost interoperability between the 2 forces by way of the Pacific Multidomain Coaching and Experimentation Functionality, permitting AFP and U.S. forces to function as a mixed command middle for strategic planning, joint operations, intelligence sharing, and fast response coordination guaranteeing each nations are prepared to answer regional challenges,” in keeping with the US Embassy in Manila. 

We’re advised that the middle, apart from serving the Philippines and the US, could also be utilized by nations with whom Manila has army coaching agreements: Australia and Japan (as quickly because the Reciprocal Entry Settlement is ratified by the Japanese Food regimen and the Philippine Senate). 

Austin and Teodoro are additionally set to go to on Tuesday, November 19, the Western Command in Palawan, or the unified command accountable for many of the West Philippine Sea, together with options like Ayungin Shoal and Pag-asa Island. 

Austin’s November 2024 go to wraps up his time period of over three years — together with the two-and-a-half years which were main strides within the bilateral relationship, a stark distinction from the purgatory that the US was compelled into beneath former president Rodrigo Duterte. 

Beneath President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and US President Joe Biden we’ve seen: 

• 4 new websites beneath the Enhanced Protection Cooperation Settlement, the place the US can proposition belongings and use staging areas for numerous functions, together with catastrophe response;
• The issuance of bilateral protection tips that explicitly states that the Mutual Protection Treaty covers assaults within the South China Sea;
• Two of the “greatest” Balikatan workouts (though it have to be famous that even beneath Duterte, who had wished the annual joint army train stopped, the 2 nations nonetheless managed to drag off what was then the “greatest” iteration of such train); 
• Quite a few bilateral and multilateral joint sails within the West Philippine Sea, kickstarted by the primary ever Maritime Cooperative Exercise between the US and the Philippines in November 2023;
• A trilateral leaders assembly between the US, Philippines, and Japan 

“I’m very comfortable that regardless of the lower than superb climate, that you’ve managed to return and go to. There are various objects that we’ll focus on… regarding the totally different points which can be dealing with each our nations, particularly on the financial entrance and definitely the army entrance,” Marcos advised Austin in Malacañang. 

Hours earlier, in Camp Aguinaldo, Teodoro awarded Austin the Excellent Achievement Medal for “substantial contributions to strengthening the Philippines-US bilateral protection ties and selling regional safety within the Indo-Pacific.”

Most analysts will agree that it’s unlikely for the US to reverse the positive factors within the final two years. In spite of everything, the Philippines is in a strategic spot, as america navigates a China that’s grow to be an increasing number of assertive, particularly within the Indo-Pacific. 

Florida Senator Marco Rubio, poised to take over the State Division as soon as the second Trump administration begins in January 2025, is a China hawk who earlier launched a invoice “to diplomatically, economically, and militarily assist the Philippines because it resists Chinese language efforts to grab Philippine territory within the South China Sea.”  

The invoice, launched in July 2024 or a month after the China Coast Guard’s tense June 17 assault on Philippine troopers in Ayungin Shoal, would “codify a Bilateral Strategic Dialogue with the Philippines” and “assist efforts to harden the place of the Sierra Madre,” referring to the rusting warship that stands watch within the shoal. 

One other China hawk (and Floridian), Consultant Mike Waltz, is about to take over the Nationwide Safety Adviser function. The controversial Hegseth can be thought of to be a China hawk. 

Conversations with army personnel trace at a shy confidence in direction of bilateral ties and the great it should do the Armed Forces of the Philippines. But there’s the unpredictability and “transactional” nature of Trump to consider; will he see the advantages of backing and presumably shelling out (much more) cash for the Philippines?  

Throughout final week’s panel dialogue on Trump’s 2024 win, former Philippine communications secretary Ricky Carandang raised an fascinating level: an isolationist US beneath Trump could possibly be factor for Manila. 

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“Now we have romanticized and idealized our relationship with America to the purpose the place Filipinos assume they’re simply going to return to our help simply because we’re the little brown brother. Possibly this may shake us off of that, that may shake that type of idealism off of us, and we will view our relationship with America in a extra clear-headed and extra pragmatic method as an alternative of anticipating them to save lots of us from all of our ills,” he advised a panel that included Rappler’s editor-at-large Marites Vitug, worldwide relations and safety professional Herman Kraft, and analyst (and fellow Aquino-era Cupboard member) Ronald Llamas. 

To be clear (and honest), the Philippines beneath Marcos and his overseas affairs and protection chiefs Enrique Manalo and Teodoro, has been working to develop its diplomatic and safety ties, even because it has grown even nearer to its sole treaty ally. 

There’s a considerable line of nations desperate to improve protection and diplomatic ties following the signing of the RAA with Japan, and the improve to a Strategic Partnership with South China. There’s New Zealand, France, and Canada ready within the wings — maybe by early 2025, or perhaps even earlier than the 12 months ends? 

I understand we’ve had our fill of “fascinating occasions” — particularly the six years beneath Rodrigo Duterte. However we’re additionally about to start out a brand new 12 months of extra chaos and disarray internationally. It’s a world that Trump shall be coming into anew, and one which he would clearly be shaping in keeping with what he needs. – Rappler.com