Utilizing Historical past as a Information to Handicapping the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Handicapping the $2 million, Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff isn’t a straightforward process. The 1 1/8-mile race for fillies and mares yearly attracts a deep area, filled with confirmed Grade 1 winners.

The 2024 Breeders’ Cup Distaff on Nov. 2 at Del Mar is adhering to the same old commonplace. The possible area contains one Eclipse Award winner (Idiomatic), a near-certain future Eclipse Award winner (Thorpedo Anna), a couple of different Grade 1 winners, and a few challengers from Japan.

How can we slim down the contenders to seek out the almost certainly winner? Reviewing the latest historical past of the Distaff may also help. The next six traits may also help information you towards the filly or mare with one of the best likelihood to go to the Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner’s circle:

Don’t be afraid to wager late runners

In case you’re considering, “the Distaff is a mud race, so it in all probability favors horses with early velocity,” suppose once more. Whereas many North American dust races play favorably towards horses with tactical velocity, the Distaff is an exception. Do you know 14 of the final 20 Distaff winners (70%) have been racing exterior the highest three after the opening half-mile, together with 9 (45%) who have been positioned no nearer than sixth place?

Simply as putting, within the final 20 years just one Distaff winner has led after the opening half-mile. Don’t be afraid to beat on late runners within the Distaff — midpack and deep closers usually outperform velocity horses.

Favorites have a robust file

From time to time you’ll see a longshot win the Distaff, like 49-1 Marche Lorraine in 2021. Nevertheless it’s much more widespread to see short-priced horses go to the winner’s circle. Favorites have received 17 out of 40 editions of the Distaff (42.5%), whereas horses beginning at lower than 5-1 odds have received 29 out of 40 editions (72.5%). Moreover, 37 of the final 48 horses (77%) to complete within the Distaff prime three began at lower than 10-1 odds.

Don’t underestimate horses exiting defeats

Whereas it may be reassuring to wager on Distaff contenders who received their earlier begin, it’s not unusual for horses to win the Distaff following a prep race defeat. During the last 20 years, 11 Distaff winners exited a victory and 9 entered off a defeat.

Established Grade 1 winners are powerful to beat

Confirmed Grade 1 winners are powerful to beat within the Distaff. They’ve received 17 of the final 20 editions, and two of the horses who defied this pattern (Unequalled Belle and Nice House) had positioned second a number of instances towards Grade 1 firm.

Older mares have an edge, however don’t dismiss 3-year-olds

It’s extra widespread for fillies and mares ages 3 and older to win the Distaff; they’ve received 29 out of 40 editions. However 11 wins for 3-year-olds is respectable given how they’re sometimes outnumbered within the entries by older horses. At the very least one 3-year-old filly has completed within the Distaff prime three in 12 of the final 14 years, so don’t depend the children out, particularly when betting trifectas.

Wager on horses who ran at Saratoga

Among the greatest summer time racing takes place at Saratoga Race Course in New York, and it’s widespread for fillies and mares who competed at Saratoga to win the Distaff within the fall. To be particular, 12 of the final 20 Distaff champs (60%) competed at Saratoga within the yr of their Breeders’ Cup triumph.

The Grade 1 Private Ensign Stakes is one among Saratoga’s most vital Distaff preps. Within the final dozen years, Idiomatic (2023), Malathaat (2022), Perpetually Unbridled (2017), Stopchargingmaria (2015), and Royal Delta (2012) have all used the Private Ensign as a steppingstone to Distaff success.

Conclusions

As talked about within the introduction, a deep area is anticipated to compete within the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Key win threats embody defending Distaff winner Idiomatic, a 5-year-old mare recent off a romping victory within the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes, and Thorpedo Anna, a sensational 3-year-old filly with 4 Grade 1 wins underneath her belt this yr. Each ran at Saratoga through the summer time, and each will begin at effectively underneath 5-1 odds within the betting. There’s so much to love about them from a historic perspective.

However there’s additionally one downside: Idiomatic and Thorpedo Anna are each velocity horses. Idiomatic has achieved lots of her wins in gate-to-wire trend, whereas Thorpedo Anna routinely presses the early tempo. Historical past suggests their operating types aren’t excellent for the Distaff, and that might be very true if Idiomatic and Thorpedo Anna interact one another too early within the race, organising a taxing tempo battle.

That’s why bettors ought to think about Raging Sea in its place. Throughout the summer time at Saratoga, the 4-year-old filly rallied from behind a velocity duel within the Grade 1 Private Ensign Stakes to defeat Idiomatic by a head.

Raging Sea adopted up with a late-running triumph within the Grade 2 Beldame Stakes, her third consecutive graded stakes win. Raging Sea’s operating fashion is appropriate for the Distaff, and the actual fact she’s a confirmed Grade 1 winner (at Saratoga no much less) provides to her attraction from a historic perspective. If she begins at underneath 5-1 within the betting, then historical past suggests Raging Sea is the almost certainly winner of the Distaff.

Good luck together with your handicapping, and benefit from the race!