Utilizing Historical past as a Information to Betting the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Turf

A terrific discipline is anticipated to start out within the $4 million, Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf Nov. 2 at Del Mar. Horses who final raced in the USA, England, France, Eire, Germany, and Japan are among the many pre-entrants.

Most of the time, horses based mostly exterior the U.S. win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. However with so many worldwide challengers within the entries, figuring out the more than likely winner isn’t simple.

That’s the place historical past might help out. Reviewing previous outcomes of the Breeders’ Cup Turf reveals eight developments bettors can use to slim down the highest contenders:

Stretch runners normally prevail

Every now and then, you’ll see a horse with early pace win the Breeders’ Cup Turf — in 2016, Highland Reel led from begin to end —  however normally the race is received by horses who rally from off the tempo.

Certainly, 12 of the final 15 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf (and 10 of the final 11) have been received by horses racing between fifth place and thirteenth place after the opening half-mile. Horses closing from the again half of the pack win the Breeders’ Cup Turf with regularity, so favoring stretch runners is the way in which to go when planning your bets.

Betting favorites usually crack the highest 4

The betting favourite normally information a top-four end within the Breeders’ Cup Turf, doing so in 13 out of the final 15 years. To place it one other approach, in case you’ve been excluding favorites from superfecta tickets, you’ve misplaced 87% of such bets since 2009.

Favorites have executed particularly properly lately, profitable three out of the final six editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Worldwide raiders outshine the house workforce

Horses based mostly exterior of North America have lengthy dominated the Breeders’ Cup Turf, particularly over the last quarter-century. Of the final 26 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners — there have been two winners due to a lifeless warmth in 2003 — 20 (77%) had been based mostly abroad, leaving six wins for the house workforce. Just one North American runner, Bricks and Mortar in 2019, has managed to prevail within the final 9 years.

Overseas-bred horses, led by Irish-breds, win as a rule

Do you know 25 out of the 41 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (56%) had been bred exterior of North America? This contains 20 of the final 30 winners (67%) and eight of the final 10 (80%), indicating the dominance of foreign-bred runners within the Breeders’ Cup Turf is just rising.

Eire has produced probably the most Breeders’ Cup Turf winners at 17 (41%), together with 16 of the final 30. Nice Britain (six winners, 14.6%), France (one winner, 2.4%), and Germany (one winner, 2.4%) have additionally produced Breeders’ Cup Turf winners, leaving 16 winners (39%) bred in North America.

O’Brien, Appleby are the present prime trainers

A lot of Eire’s Breeders’ Cup Turf winners have been conditioned by Aidan O’Brien. The famend Irish coach has received a file seven editions of the Turf, all with Irish-breds. His tally contains 5 winners within the final 13 years: Auguste Rodin (2023), Highland Reel (2016), Discovered (2015), Magician (2013), and St Nicholas Abbey (2011). Simply as impressively, 18 of O’Brien’s 34 Breeders’ Cup Turf starters (53%) have recorded top-three finishes.

Charlie Appleby is one other formidable coach to observe. From simply 5 starters in three editions of the Turf, Appleby has recorded two wins with Yibir (2021) and Insurgent’s Romance (2022). Appleby’s file throughout all Breeders’ Cup races stands at a stellar 10-for-20 (50%), so any horse Appleby saddles have to be revered.

Moore, Dettori are the dominant jockeys

Internationally famend jockeys Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore have loved ample success within the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Dettori has ridden 21 horses within the Turf, profitable 5 instances whereas ending within the prime 4 on 13 events. Moore’s file is even higher with 5 wins, 4 seconds, three thirds, and two fourths from 14 rides. In different phrases, all 14 of Moore’s mounts have completed within the prime 4.

Favor confirmed Grade 1/Group 1 winners

It’s unusual for horses with out a Grade 1 or Group 1 win to take dwelling first prize within the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Sixteen of the final 20 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (80%) had beforehand received a top-tier race.

Don’t underestimate fillies and mares

Generally fillies and mares choose to compete in opposition to males within the Breeders’ Cup Turf, fairly than face fellow females within the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. When this occurs, listen.

Over the last decade, fillies and mares have made 14 begins within the Breeders’ Cup Turf. They’ve recorded three wins courtesy of Discovered (2015), Allow (2018), and Tarnawa (2020). Even higher, fillies and mares ran 1-2 in each 2018 and 2020. Given their comparatively restricted participation, the actual fact fillies and mares have received three of the final 10 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf (30%) is spectacular.

Conclusions

Analyzing the pre-entries for the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Turf, three contenders stand out because the more than likely winners from a historic standpoint. They’re, in alphabetical order, Emily Upjohn, Luxembourg, and Insurgent’s Romance.

Emily Upjohn, a 5-year-old mare, has received a number of Group 1 races in Europe. In June 2023, with Frankie Dettori within the saddle, she beat males within the 1 1/2-mile Group 1 Dahlbury Coronation Cup at Epsom in England. The British-bred mare is reuniting with Dettori for the Breeders’ Cup Turf and exits a powerful third-place end within the Group 1 Qatar Prix Vermeille in opposition to Bluestocking, who returned to win the celebrated Group 1 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Luxembourg has additionally received a number of Group 1 races overseas. Through the spring, he received the Coronation Cup beneath the steerage of Ryan Moore. Skilled by Aidan O’Brien, the Irish-bred 5-year-old has competed with aplomb across the globe and exits a 2 1/4-length defeat in opposition to fierce competitors within the Group 1 Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes, so he stays a formidable participant with a powerful likelihood to shine within the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

As for Insurgent’s Romance, the Irish-bred 6-year-old has already tasted Breeders’ Cup Turf glory, profitable this race by 2 1/4 lengths in 2022. He struggled in 2023, however has bounced again to his greatest in 2024, profitable 4 out of 5 begins (together with three Group 1 races in three totally different international locations) for coach Charlie Appleby. His lone defeat this yr got here when third to Goliath and Bluestocking within the 1 1/2-mile Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

Separating these three to find out the only more than likely winner is tough. Historical past doesn’t clearly favor one over the others. If pressed, I’d give the slightest edge to Insurgent’s Romance, who figures to start out because the betting favourite. Although Insurgent’s Romance has proven tactical pace as of late, he received the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Turf with a rally from tenth place, and a return to off-the-pace ways this yr would give Insurgent’s Romance the slimmest historic benefit over Emily Upjohn and Luxembourg.

Good luck along with your handicapping, and benefit from the race!