Utilizing Historical past as a Information to Betting the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

The $2 million Grade 1 NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies is a race that churns out champions. Yr after yr, virtually with out exception, the winner goes on to earn champion 2-year-old filly honors on the Eclipse Awards.

In a few years, selecting the Juvenile Fillies winner is as simple as betting the favourite – they win at a excessive fee. However generally predictability goes out the window and longshots shock at big odds, triggering huge payoffs.

Which sort of consequence will we see within the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on Nov. 1 at Del Mar? Historical past may also help us reply that query. By reviewing the previous outcomes of the Juvenile Fillies, 9 recurring tendencies develop into evident that we are able to use to determine the most definitely winner:

Velocity horses have a bonus

Horses with early pace are dominant within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Eleven of the final 15 winners (73%) have been racing in first, second, or third place after the opening half-mile, together with 5 who have been positioned on the lead.

It’s additionally value noting that Ria Antonio, who rallied from sixth place in 2013, solely received the Juvenile Fillies by way of the disqualification of front-running She’s a Tiger, who set the quickest Juvenile Fillies tempo fractions of the final 15 years.

Favor the favourite

Favorites have received the Juvenile Fillies at an astonishing fee. To be particular, they’ve received 19 out of 40 editions, or 47.5%. That’s a lot larger than the standard successful share for favorites, so bettors can be ok with backing the best choice within the Juvenile Fillies.

Keep away from betting horses between 7.50-1 and 17.20-1

It’s not exceptional for main longshots to upset the Juvenile Fillies. We’ve seen eight winners go off at odds of 17.30-1 or larger, together with (since 2013) Caledonia Street, Champagne Room, Take Cost Brandi, and Ria Antonia. The horses that nearly by no means win the Juvenile Fillies, nevertheless, are midrange longshots going off at odds between 7.50-1 and 17.20-1. There’s solely been one winner on this odds vary within the historical past of the race and that was again in 2001 when Tempera struck at odds of 11.90-1. When betting the Juvenile Fillies, you need to again a short-priced contender (ideally the favourite) or a serious longshot, however nothing in between.

Wager fillies who’ve raced one mile or farther

Sprinters who’re unproven operating one mile or farther hardly ever win the Juvenile Fillies. It has solely occurred as soon as within the final 15 years, in 2012, when eventual four-time champion Beholder received the Juvenile Fillies in her first begin operating farther than seven furlongs. It’s smart to wager fillies who’ve run in at the least one race over one mile or additional.

Jockeys Joel Rosario and Mike Smith typically prevail

Two jockeys which have ridden notably effectively in latest editions of the Juvenile Fillies are Joel Rosario and Mike Smith. Each have ridden 13 instances within the Juvenile Fillies and each have received 3 times.

Rosario’s success has come within the final half-dozen years, successful in 2018, 2020, and 2021. Smith’s success goes a bit additional again with wins in 2008, 2015, and 2017. 4 of Smith’s final 5 mounts have completed within the prime three.

Grade 1 alums have an edge

It’s uncommon for a filly with out expertise competing on the Grade 1 stage to win the Juvenile Fillies. The numbers don’t lie as a result of 21 of the final 23 Juvenile Fillies winners had beforehand competed in a Grade 1 race. The 2 fillies who defied this development, Superior Feather and Dreaming of Anna, have been undefeated winners of a number of non-Grade 1 stakes.

The takeaway? Wager fillies with Grade 1 expertise. And should you’re going to wager towards this development, be certain you’re backing an undefeated stakes winner with potential to shine whereas stepping up at school.

The Frizette is the important thing prep race

Associated to the statistic above, the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes in New York has been a pivotal steppingstone to success within the Juvenile Fillies, producing seven of the final 15 winners.

The Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes and Grade 1 FanDuel Racing Del Mar Debutante are different productive preps, producing 4 winners and three winners of the Juvenile Fillies the final 15 years.

Exterior put up positions are a bonus

Don’t fear about betting fillies drawn in outdoors put up positions as a result of racing outdoors and within the clear is usually a path to victory within the Juvenile Fillies with 9 of the final 15 winners breaking from put up six or wider. Throughout the identical timeframe, solely three fillies breaking from put up one have managed to file top-three finishes.

Don’t overestimate expertise over the host observe

The Breeders’ Cup strikes across the nation to a unique observe every year, so it’s pure to imagine fillies with expertise over the host observe have a bonus in any given yr. This truly has not been the case lately as 12 of the final 15 Juvenile Fillies winners have been making their first begin on the host observe.

Conclusions

Historical past paints a vivid image of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Pending the put up place draw, one filly stands out because the most definitely winner: Scottish Lassie.

Scottish Lassie has proven pace-tracking tactical pace in each of her begins. After ending third in her debut sprinting at Saratoga, she improved dramatically when stepping up at school for the one-mile Grade 1 Frizette Stakes, dominating her rivals by 9 lengths.

Her spectacular Frizette victory might set up Scottish Lassie because the Juvenile Fillies favourite. In any case, she’ll be a brief value within the betting, a lot decrease than 7.50-1. She matches the vast majority of our historic tendencies and ought to be mighty robust to beat even whereas competing at Del Mar for the primary time.

Good luck together with your handicapping, and benefit from the race!