UFC 307 Paths to Victory: How does Khalil Rountree Jr. pull off an enormous upset over Alex Pereira?

On Saturday night time on the Delta Heart in Salt Lake Metropolis, Utah, UFC 307 takes place with gentle heavyweight champion Alex Pereira placing his title on the road in opposition to fellow knockout artist Khalil Rountree Jr. in the primary occasion.

Pereira is among the high pound-for-pound fighters within the sport and has already jumped in on two earlier events this yr to assist the UFC at UFC 300 and at UFC 303 (the place he delivered spectacular knockouts). As such, Rountree is a major underdog to the champion. However that doesn’t imply “The Struggle Horse” can’t shock the world on Saturday so let’s check out how Rountree would possibly creator the upset, and at how Pereira retains his belt.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Paths to Victory for Alex Pereira at UFC 307

That is the third one of those I’ve written for Pereira this yr, and actually, it’s getting a bit tough to seek out new methods to say that “Poatan” is superior. The person is speed-running a Corridor of Fame profession and is already climbing the checklist of all-time fighters in only a few brief years within the sport. He within the midst of a very unprecedented profession and, no less than on paper, that ought to proceed on Saturday.

Maybe greater than another individual in MMA at present, Pereira possesses a real nuclear possibility. He’s very probably the toughest pound-for-pound puncher within the sport and what’s actually unbelievable about it’s that he doesn’t even swing laborious. He’s finest identified for his deadly left hook, however each shot Pereira throws thuds like a cinderblock and lacks the large wind-up you see from another heavy hitters. That is the engine that drives his complete recreation. The specter of cataclysmic repercussions at a second’s discover forces each Pereira opponent to organize accordingly and thus dictates a lot of how his fights play out.

Alongside these traces, whereas Pereira’s knockouts energy his recreation, it’s his low kicks that drive the automotive. Pereira is among the easiest calf-kickers in MMA as a result of he exhibits nearly no setup on them they usually nonetheless severely impede his opponents. They’re the bedrock of his recreation, permitting him to attain seemingly innocuous blows, after which oops, instantly Pereira’s landed 15 in three minutes and now your leg doesn’t work anymore.

And for Pereira to defend his title on Saturday, these are the one actual instruments he wants. The construction of Pereira’s recreation is a Scylla and Charybdis setup, the place you’ll be able to keep on the surface and get kicked to demise or you’ll be able to wade into the hazard zone and face his nuclear energy. Both avenue leads to demise, and for Rountree, that is very true as he isn’t an adept defender of low kicks and he’s not going to instantly flip right into a D-1 wrestler. Additionally, he has a foul behavior of dropping his proper hand when he throws his personal left.

For Pereira, the trail ahead is evident: be your self and restrict protracted engagements. Rountree just isn’t pretty much as good of a kickboxer, however he does have pace and energy and throws together, which is a danger. Pereira ought to chop the leg from the surface and work pictures to the physique as effectively, whereas he waits for Rountree to drop his guard, then increase goes the dynamite.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Paths to Victory for Khalil Rountree Jr. at UFC 307

A UFC fighter since 2016 the place he entered the promotion off of The Final Fighter, Rountree has established himself as one in every of gentle heavyweight’s premier knockout artists throughout his eight-year tenure. However maybe extra spectacular than his knockouts is the truth that Rountree has confirmed notably succesful at dispatching former Glory Kickboxers, going 3-0 over them within the UFC. Now although “The Glory Killer” faces the Glory Kickboxing finish boss in former two-division champion Pereira.

Rountree’s success in opposition to former kickboxers comes down to 1 easy factor: he’s a strong striker in his personal proper and he possess the pace and energy to catch folks off guard. Rountree is quick and highly effective and throws fight-ending pictures in speedy mixture, which along with his willingness to interact make him a risk throughout any alternate. That being stated, it additionally opens him as much as getting cracked by counters, which is demise in opposition to Pereira.

Rountree faces two main points on this matchup. The primary is navigating Pereira’s kicks. Rountree isn’t nice at checking low kicks and whereas one hopes he’s labored on that talent for this battle, a extra possible response is drilled counters, with Rountree’s left hand being keyed to set off a responding shot each time Pereira kicks him. If he can’t disincentivize calf kicks with checks, counters is the one different actual possibility accessible to stopping Pereira from dictating the motion.

The second problem is producing his personal constant offense. We noticed in opposition to Dustin Jacoby that Rountree had a tough time managing the gap in opposition to a very good striker with good footwork, and thus settled on lunging in recklessly at occasions. I can’t stress sufficient how dangerous of an thought that’s in opposition to Pereira, who will instantly membership him for it.

As a substitute, Rountree ought to insist on profitable the strain battle. Pereira can battle off his again foot however Rountree is in significantly better form if he’s at all times the one coming ahead. He additionally ought to feint quite a bit. Feints opened up various alternatives for Israel Adesanya, and from Rountree they may very well be the distinction in touchdown a fight-ender or not. Most significantly although, Rountree wants to make use of these instruments to crowd Pereira and get inside, the place he can swing for the fences. May “Poatan” catch him if they begin buying and selling hooks in a cellphone sales space? Sure. However that can be by far the place that Rountree is most certainly to land his personal fight-ender on Pereira.

Get inside and throw down, then see the place the chips fall.

One Huge Query

Does the grueling schedule lastly meet up with Pereira?

Pereira is 37 years outdated. That’s not precisely a spring rooster, even up at gentle heavyweight. The person has been combating professionally for 12 years and has over 50 skilled fights. That’s A LOT of mileage. On high of that, Pereira has been absurdly energetic since becoming a member of the UFC. That is his tenth battle in three years. That’s a Donald Cerrone-level of exercise, which is sweet for star-making however dangerous for remaining undefeated.

In nearly any sport, frequent competitors results in occasional defeat. You’ll be able to’t at all times have your finest day, particularly for those who’re combating each couple of months. And that will get exacerbated in fight sports activities as a result of the price of coaching and the accidents you accumulate there are so excessive. To date, Pereira has principally confirmed himself able to profitable via any such hindrances, however for those who roll the cube sufficient, ultimately they arrive up snake eyes.

Prediction

On the danger of sounding disrespectful to Rountree, this must be a showcase for Pereira. Rountree is a enjoyable fighter, however he’s like that quote from 300, “extra brawler than warrior, he makes a beautiful mess of issues.” If Rountree could make this extra of a brawl than a kickboxing battle, his possibilities to win go up, however even when he does, that’s nonetheless no assure. Pereira is simply too savvy and packs an excessive amount of energy in his personal proper for Rountree 8 out of 10 occasions.

Alex Pereira knocks out Khalil Rountree Jr. at 1:03 of Spherical 2.