UFC 304 Paths to Victory: How does Leon Edwards beat Belal Muhammad and retain his welterweight title?

Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad are set to run issues again.

This Saturday, Edwards and Muhammad face off for the welterweight title in the primary occasion of UFC 304, a rematch of their 2021 battle that led to a no-contest after an inadvertent eye poke rendered Muhammad unable to proceed. How a lot can we study from their first battle, how a lot has every man modified since then, and who will go away Manchester, England with welterweight gold?

Let’s have a look.

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Paths to Victory for Leon Edwards at UFC 304

Edwards has turn out to be one of many high pound-for-pound fighters within the sport due to his distinctive well-roundedness. Primarily a kickboxer, Edwards is an elite anti-wrestler, however he’s additionally prepared to make use of clinch ways and wrestling of his personal if the event requires it, that means “Rocky” can compete in all phases and take fights to the one which favors his opponent the least. The premise off all of that is footwork. Edwards is excellent at controlling the vary and angling out of stress, or collapsing it when essential. The straw that stirs the drink for Edwards is that he’s the one dictating the place the motion is going down. And within the first battle with Muhammad, that gave Edwards an enormous benefit.

Muhammad is a stress fighter, and Edwards got here out very aggressively, placing Muhammad on his heels the place he’s least comfy. From there, Edwards frequently snapped in kicks to the physique to set that vary and stymie Muhammad. When Muhammad did attempt to get issues going, Edwards would merely again out or change stances, once more disrupting Muhammad’s offense, and there’s no cause to suppose he can’t do the identical on Saturday.

The opposite large weapon for Edwards of their first battle, and one that ought to carry by means of to Saturday, is the jab + rear-hand straight. Edwards doesn’t have an important jab, however it’s a adequate setup punch and he used it to sneak in lengthy rear-straights from both stance that discovered the mark persistently. Then, when Muhammad started to parry the straight punches, Edwards snuck a head kick over the guard that harm Muhammad. Once more, all of that needs to be out there to Edwards on Saturday.

So far as one thing new, we noticed a few of it within the first encounter however Edwards appears to be like to be the superior clinch fighter of the 2. Edwards has good positioning in tie-ups and extra importantly finds tough methods to get angles and land good knees. One of many major methods Edwards can lose this battle is to easily get out-worked by Muhammad, so discovering refuge within the clinches ought to “Keep in mind the Title” begin constructing momentum is an efficient security valve.

In the end for Edwards, the plan for Muhammad is solely to be a extra aggressive model of himself. Taking the wind out of Muhammad’s sails early, and slowing the tempo down, favors him considerably as he’s the superior technician of the 2, and it’s unclear if Muhammad has a deep sufficient bag of methods to seek out one thing else.

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Paths to victory for Belal Muhammad at UFC 304

Muhammad is presently on a 10-fight unbeaten streak backed primarily by his mix of stress, wrestle-boxing, and cardio. It’s a potent mixture however one which gained’t be sufficient to beat Edwards with out some adjustments.

As mentioned above, Muhammad actually struggled with Edwards’s vary and aggression within the first matchup, and people are issues that persist for Muhammad throughout all opponents. Muhammad is a snowball rolling down hill however he does have to get rolling first, and when you by no means let him out of first gear, his offense is lackluster. Muhammad can’t let Edwards dictate the tempo and vary of the battle or he’s misplaced earlier than the bout is even begun.

So how does he try this? Effectively, the primary half sounds easy however could be moderately exhausting: he has to simply accept harm. Within the first battle, Muhammad acquired caught at vary partly as a result of he merely didn’t like getting hit when he got here in. Effectively, robust cookies. Getting hit is nobody’s thought of a very good time (OK, possibly it’s for Justin Gaethje), however it’s the worth of admission to this battle as Edwards is greater, sooner, and has good footwork. And whereas it might suck to stroll headlong into offense, the reality is that sitting at vary is definitely worse, as a result of like Muhammad, Edwards doesn’t need to be pressured. Edwards desires to face in house and have a slow-paced kickboxing match. Muhammad can’t acquiesce to that and hope to win.

As soon as Muhammad accepts that he’s going to must stroll by means of hearth, the largest precedence is getting Edwards to the fence. Edwards is an excellent anti-wrestler however when you put him close to the fence, it restricts his means to create house, and smothering Edwards is the important thing for Muhammad to seek out constant success. To do that Muhammad goes to wish to double and triple-up his jab. The jab was Muhammad’s solely actual weapon of success within the first match and it’s essential on this one.

The final piece of the puzzle for Muhammad is the wrestling. Edwards is a superb defensive wrestler and good at standing up, however when we now have seen folks stymie him, it’s been with smothering high management. Kamaru Usman’s best success in opposition to Edwards got here from placing him alongside the fence and controlling him. Muhammad is just not that stage of wrestler or of management grappler, however he’s exceptionally well-conditioned and that counts for lots. Wrestle early, wrestle typically and make Edwards work from the opening bell, as a result of the identical pictures that may get stuffed within the first spherical will begin to land as Edwards slows down. The extra Muhammad could make Edwards work, the higher his possibilities because the battle drags on.

X-Elements

The time.

This occasion takes place in Manchester, England and for some cause, the powers that be determined that regardless, it must occur on conventional U.S. pay-per-view occasions. That implies that when Edwards and Muhammad truly make the stroll, will probably be round 5 a.m. native time. That may be a large departure from when most fighters are used to competing and will screw issues up for both or each males in the event that they aren’t correctly ready. Each males are professionals and clearly conscious of this heading into the bout, but when both of them slacked on this particular preparation, that’s an enormous benefit for the opposite come battle evening (morning).

Prediction

As a lot as I like Muhammad as a fighter, it is a robust matchup for him. Edwards is greater, youthful, sooner, and has a wider vary of instruments than him. Furthermore, Muhammad doesn’t have the form of high-powered offense that might not less than give him a gambler’s probability of touchdown one thing. It’s merely not who he’s, and Edwards is aware of that.

This battle is extraordinarily more likely to seem like each Leon Edwards battle, a masterclass of vary and refined motion that isn’t broadly interesting to the general public as a result of there aren’t large, flashy moments. As an alternative, Edwards will merely outland Muhammad for many of the battle and stroll away with one other clear however uninspiring resolution.

Leon Edwards def. Belal Muhammad by way of unanimous resolution (49-46, 49-46, 49-46).