This isn’t the Blue Jays’ yr. Although they performed at roughly a 90-win tempo over the 2020-23 seasons, issues have fallen aside right here in 2024. They’re 44-52, placing them 9.5 video games out of a playoff spot and with a number of groups blocking their path. Except they crack off an 11-game successful streak between now and the deadline, they’ll be trying to do some promoting within the coming weeks.
Crazier issues have occurred however the odds are towards them. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them only a 2% likelihood of a miracle postseason berth whereas the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are solely barely extra optimistic at 3.9%.
Current reporting has steered the Jays are keen to deal rental gamers however might cease there. Some have floated gamers like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as potential commerce candidates, with every controllable by the 2025 season, however basic supervisor Ross Atkins appeared to shoot down that chance. Final month, he stated that buying and selling these guys “simply doesn’t make any sense for us.”
Usually, it appears the membership is hoping to contend once more in 2025. That leaves them with six rental gamers they might commerce between now and the July 30 deadline, as every of Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi García and Trevor Richards are slated for the open market at season’s finish. Naturally, every participant may have totally different commerce worth based mostly on his ability stage but in addition his contract.
One query that the entrance workplace might want to reply is whether or not they may prioritize shedding salaries and getting below the aggressive stability tax or focus extra on prospect returns, consuming some cash to be able to tip the scales that means. The Mets demonstrated the latter path final yr, as they swallowed important parts of the cash owed to each Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander to be able to deliver again bigger prospect hauls.
Each Roster Useful resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts are fairly shut in estimating Toronto’s present CBT quantity. RR has them simply over $247MM with Cot’s a tad greater at $250MM. These are simply estimates however they’re seemingly fairly shut, so the Jays must subtract $10-15MM to be able to limbo below the bottom tax threshold of $237MM.
They received’t be capable of shed any participant’s full wage from their CBT quantity because the season is already greater than half over, however they might shed parts. For instance, if a participant has a CBT hit of $20MM and is traded on the halfway level of the season, $10MM of that will keep on the buying and selling membership’s books and the opposite half would switch to the buying membership. That’s assuming no money issues had been concerned within the deal.
It’s additionally value declaring {that a} participant’s CBT hit is predicated on the common annual worth of his contract, not the wage. The baseball season is 187 days lengthy and there are 73 left to go, roughly 39%. By the deadline, that can be right down to 61 days or 32.6%. Let’s take a tough define of the place these six rental gamers stand:
- Turner: $13MM CBT hit for the yr, $5.07MM remaining right now, $4.24MM at deadline
- Kikuchi: $12MM, $4.68MM, $3.91MM
- Kiermaier: $10.5MM, $4.1MM, $3.42MM
- Garcia: $6MM, $2.34MM, $1.96MM
- Jansen, $5.2MM, $2.03MM, $1.7MM
- Richards: $2.15MM, $839K, $700K
As of right now, these six gamers mix for a CBT hit of roughly $19.06MM, with that quantity set to drop to $15.93MM by the deadline. Although it might be tight, it’s actually potential they might duck below the tax this yr.
Doing so would include sure advantages, although the tax financial savings could be minimal. The Jays paid the tax for the primary time final yr and are presently on tempo to be a second-time payor. That solely comes with a 30% tax fee, which means they’re presently slated to pay within the vary of $3-4MM in taxes.
That’s a drop within the bucket for a serious league group however there could be different arguments for ducking below. If the Jays did pay the tax this yr and once more in 2025, they’d be a third-time payor subsequent yr, which might bump their tax fee to 50%. Whereas ducking below the road this yr would reset their standing and permit them to enter 2025 as a “first-time” payor and have a base fee of simply 20%. That feels important however nonetheless results in pretty modest tax financial savings. For instance, going $30MM over subsequent yr’s base threshold would result in both a $6MM or $15MM tax invoice, relying on whether or not they’re paying a 20% or 50% fee.
Maybe extra importantly, in the event that they signed a participant within the offseason that had rejected a qualifying provide, they’d face a lesser penalty by avoiding the tax. A tax-paying membership surrenders $1MM in worldwide bonus pool house in addition to its second- and fifth-highest picks within the subsequent draft when signing a QO participant. Avoiding the tax adjustments that to simply $500K in bonus cash and simply the second-highest decide.
They’d additionally enhance what they obtain if a participant rejects a QO and indicators elsewhere. Tax payors obtain a decide after the fourth spherical if a QO participant indicators elsewhere, whereas it’s the beginning of the third in the event that they keep away from the tax. The Jays have a few potential QO candidates in Jansen and Kikuchi however the QO consideration could be moot in the event that they get traded.
However as talked about, the Jays might simply overlook concerning the tax and give attention to getting the very best prospects they’ll. The Cubs are reportedly fascinated by Jansen however they’d most likely slightly surrender a greater return whereas having the Jays maintain their cash on their books. The Cubs seemingly wish to keep away from the tax themselves and Roster Useful resource presently has them just below $234MM. They’ve a well-regarded farm system and would possibly lean in direction of subtracting from that, versus taking up cash on the deadline. It might be comparable with different groups, such because the Padres. Roster Useful resource has them at $225MM and so they appear to wish to keep below the tax as properly. They want pitching and could also be fascinated by somebody like Kikuchi, however they could not wish to tackle his cash/CBT hit.
Different groups can be within the reverse place. A group such because the Tigers, for instance, could be in search of extra offense. In the event that they had been to inquire about Turner, they’d most likely want to tackle the cash and never surrender prospect expertise. They’re nowhere close to the tax line and their actual payroll is properly under their previous spending ranges. Since they’re seven video games out of the playoffs, they could be keen to tackle a bit of money to be able to bolster their membership for a long-shot postseason push, versus surrendering younger gamers and hurting themselves in future seasons.
What the Jays are capable of do will in the end depend upon what sort of provides are coming their means, as they don’t function in a vacuum. They already know that no membership is keen to tackle all of Kiermaier’s contract, as they made him freely out there on waivers just lately and didn’t get any takers. Maybe somebody could be fascinated by him as a speed-and-defense fourth outfielder if the Jays ate a few of his deal, however getting all the the rest of his contract off the books doesn’t seem like an possibility.
Relying on the circumstances of their buying and selling companions, they could should strike a stability, with some offers centered on value financial savings and others on maximizing the return when it comes to expertise. If that leaves them nonetheless a hair over the tax line, they might contemplate transferring non-rental gamers, with Chad Inexperienced arguably the most suitable choice there. He’s below contract by 2025 however has a $10.5MM CBT hit, identical as Kiermaier, giving the Jays an opportunity to wash one other few million from their CBT quantity. Doing so would damage their 2025 bullpen however they may really feel they might simply substitute Inexperienced’s manufacturing through an offseason signing. With bullpen assist typically in demand on the deadline, Inexperienced ought to garner curiosity.
Guys like George Springer, Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman all have CBT hits of $21MM or extra. The Jays might attempt to discover takers for these however Springer is 34 years previous and having a tough season, which might tamp down curiosity. Dealing both Bassitt or Gausman would damage subsequent yr’s rotation, which is probably the membership’s finest argument for making an attempt to compete once more in 2025, as they might go into the offseason with a entrance 4 of Gausman, Bassitt, José Berríos and Yariel Rodríguez on paper.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa may very well be another choice as he’s below contract by 2025 and has a $7.5MM CBT hit. He’s having the very best season of his profession however has been on the injured listing because the begin of this month with a left knee sprain. He can nonetheless be traded whereas on the IL however his well being standing will affect his commerce worth.
In the end, there are numerous transferring components right here, a part of the explanation why the Jays can be an fascinating membership to look at within the weeks to return. Many of the sellers at this yr’s deadline can be centered on the long run, as golf equipment just like the White Sox and Marlins are in actually tough form within the current. That may make their deadline priorities slightly simple, as they are going to be merely trying to purchase as a lot future expertise as potential.
However the Blue Jays will seemingly be balancing a number of totally different considerations. They are going to be wanting to surrender some expertise, however not in a means that considerably harms their possibilities of competing once more subsequent yr. They may give attention to buying as a lot expertise as they’ll proper now or they might limbo below the tax line, giving them extra freedom to accumulate expertise within the offseason. A technique or one other, Atkins and his crew can be trying to flip a misplaced season into one thing that may assist them down the road, although there are numerous alternative ways they might attempt to accomplish that.
