Trevor Lawrence turned the newest quarterback to get an enormous contract, and now that particulars are out on the deal it’s wanting an increasing number of like the most effective contracts within the NFL for his crew. The oft-overlooked chief of the Jaguars, Lawrence is maybe one of many best present examples of the disconnect between field rating scouting and really watching him play — which is a part of what makes this deal so nice for Jacksonville.
Lawrence’s contract will find yourself being price $40.4M in Common Annual Worth (AAV) when accounting for ensures and bonuses. It makes him the eleventh highest-paid quarterback within the league in AAV, regardless of being a former No. 1 choose and the newest to affix the second contract membership.
It’s been straightforward for informal followers to miss simply how prolific a passer Lawrence has grow to be. Exterior of his disastrous rookie season beneath City Meyer, Lawrence has advanced right into a dependable 4,000+ yard passer who’s environment friendly with the ball (finishing over 65% of passes in every of the final two years), whereas having an unbelievable two-year TD/INT ratio of 46/22. He’s additionally finished all this with out having an All-World receiving corps with Calvin Ridley as his No. 1, and Christian Kirk within the No. 2 spot.
Now as he enters 2024 we’re seeing a Jaguars crew with extra receiving expertise unfold across the discipline and targeted much less on one particular person participant. There’s little doubt that shedding Ridley is hard, however the Jaguars mitigated the loss by forming a real, three-deep corps with Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. The mixture of Davis and Thomas Jr. needs to be greater than sufficient to exceed Ridley’s manufacturing, however extra importantly give a course of thrower like Lawrence extra targets across the discipline — which is all the time a superb factor.
That’s the place we get to the brass tacks of this deal. Trevor Lawrence is on the precipice of actually breaking out. Doug Pederson is rising an increasing number of comfy with extending the Jaguars’ routes and having Lawrence throw deeper, and his efficiency hasn’t dropped off because of this. From 2022 to 2023 he lifted his Meant Air Yards from 7.4 to eight.2 yards per try, all whereas maintaining his completions inside 1 % of accuracy. This can be a predictor for a participant who is ready to shoulder an even bigger load, and that ought to carry once more in 2024.
In every of the final two years he’s additionally needed to cope with a unit that drops A LOT of passes — 64 to be exact, which is nearly on par with what number of drops Patrick Mahomes has needed to cope with in Kansas Metropolis, throwing to his island of misfit toys.
So, if we work beneath the belief that Lawrence will take a step ahead once more this yr (which is a good wager), it will put him across the 4,300 passing yard mark, with wherever between 25 and 30 passing touchdowns. This is able to put him on par with the perfect quarterbacks within the NFL.
Once more, this can be a man who’s being paid the eleventh highest yearly wage amongst quarterbacks. If you find yourself able the place a 24-year-old QB is on his second contract, locked in for 5 years, enjoying on par with the top-5 at his place, however paying him much less — that’s an enormous win. Right here’s the place Lawrence slots in among the many highest paid QBs:
- Lamar Jackson — $51.8M
- Jared Goff — $48.4M
- Deshaun Watson — $46M
- Patrick Mahomes — $45M
- Kirk Cousins — $45M
- Joe Burrow — $43.8M
- Dak Prescott — $42M
- Jalen Hurts — $41.6M
- Daniel Jones — $41M
- Justin Herbert — $40.9M
- Trevor Lawrence — $40.4M
It’s troublesome to make a strict comparability between gamers working in distinction offenses, with differing personnels — however anecdotally you could possibly make a simple argument for Lawrence over Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson, or Daniel Jones, whereas pitching a good case that he’s higher than Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts.
All this at pretty low AAV cash which looks as if splitting hairs proper now, however can be magnified with a rising cap the place quarterbacks can be paid greater than Lawrence, which can permit for the Jaguars to out-spend on different positions.
Jacksonville bought in on the bottom ground to get this deal finished early, and it was sensible as hell. In two or three years we’ll be questioning how Lawrence was inked for thus little, very similar to the Payments did with Josh Allen and his extension.
When a entrance workplace is sensible for lengthy sufficient the wins observe. The Jaguars are on the precipice of one thing particular.
