Tips on how to Argue About Clutchness

This in all probability isn’t an issue for most individuals, however I’m plagued always by the reminiscence of irritating baseball arguments from days previous. I in all probability get into these arguments greater than most individuals, partially due to my (and I hope it doesn’t sound conceited to say this) huge data of the game, however principally as a result of I’ve lived most of my life in New Jersey, which his dwelling to essentially the most cussed, tendentious individuals you’d ever have the misfortune of assembly.

One such argument came about in all probability shut to fifteen years in the past, after I ruined what was presupposed to be a soothing Friday night down the shore by getting right into a shouting match over the problem of Alex Rodriguez vs. Derek Jeter. I most well-liked A-Rod, who would go on to complete his profession with a slugging share greater than 100 factors larger than that of his Yankees teammate. I used to be arguing towards somebody whose case rested on Jeter being “extra clutch.”

If you happen to’re sufficiently old to recollect what “analytics bloggers” like me considered that argument within the 2010s, you possibly can perceive my quickness to anger and doubtless think about the colours my face turned. When the mud settled, Jeter — who, it seems, was really an distinctive hitter all alongside — did end with a greater profession postseason wRC+ than A-Rod. Nevertheless it was shut: 121 to Jeter, 116 for Rodriguez.

However the basis of my place has stayed with me: A greater hitter who performs the identical in stress conditions — or perhaps a little worse — should be extra productive within the clutch than an inferior participant who raises his sport. How does that line of reasoning maintain up? We’re in a little bit of a sluggish interval between the commerce deadline and the sharp finish of the playoff race — plus Dan Szymborski simply wrote concerning the White Sox and their world-historical screwing of the pooch, which is the one factor in baseball I really care about proper now — so now appears nearly as good a time as any to seek out out. Possibly this text will present a helpful public service to the cussed and argumentative amongst you in some unspecified time in the future down the road.

So let’s pit the clutchest hitters in baseball this season towards the most effective. Who would you relatively have up with the sport on the road? I’ll use wRC+ as a proxy for normal hitter high quality and, um, Clutch (which charges how a lot a hitter raises his sport in higher-leverage conditions) as a proxy for clutchness.

We nearly acquired some nice symmetry right here. There are 15 certified hitters this season with a Clutch ranking of 1.00 or higher, which, in accordance with the FanGraphs glossary, is “nice.” Kind the identical leaderboard by total wRC+, and also you get 15 gamers with a wRC+ of 148 or higher. Which, in case you shut your eyes and cross your fingers, is principally a wRC+ of 150.

Just one participant seems within the high 15 in each metrics, which from the place I’m sitting principally makes him the favored youngster of the gods of fortune. Possibly it’s higher to be fortunate than good, nevertheless it’s greatest to be each. Anybody wish to guess who this golden god of a person is? You bought a reputation in thoughts?

Jurickson Profar. What a world.

Profar however, situational stats don’t bode nicely for the context-neutral mashers. 4 of the remaining 14 high hitters in wRC+ — Aaron Choose, Bryce Harper, Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez — are literally within the backside 15 in Clutch. Steven Kwan, no. 11 in wRC+ this season, can also be down close to the underside of the Clutch leaderboard. Taking Profar out of the equation for either side, listed below are your 28 contestants.

I don’t find out about you, but when I had to decide on an inventory of hitters to win me a sport, or a World Sequence, I’d take the checklist with Choose, Soto, Ohtani, and Harper.

In high-leverage conditions, outlined as a plate look with a leverage index of two.0 or larger, the Good checklist and the Clutch checklist are very shut, however the guys on the Clutch checklist have been higher this yr on the mixture.

So the higher hitters stroll extra and have a better OBP, however the clutch ones hit for extra energy. And in case you drill down on particular person efficiency, clutch hitters dominate the highest of the checklist as nicely. I’ll warn you, that is the place issues get just a little bizarre.

As a result of holy crap, what occurred to Harper?

Now, loads of these tendentious New Jerseyans I talked about earlier are Phillies followers, and I nonetheless hear their baleful cries. The Phillies, who regarded just like the 2001 Mariners till a couple of week earlier than the All-Star break, are at present within the midst of a slide that’s a pair bounces away from rivaling the one the Dodgers went on in 2017. The general public, suffice it to say, just isn’t taking it nicely.

A few of that response stems from the truth that loads of the people who find themselves appearing just like the Phillies won’t ever win once more are nonetheless twitchy from watching the Eagles begin 10-1 after which appear like they have been by no means going to win once more. That form of — and that is going to sound imply and I don’t care — soccer mentality is ill-suited to baseball, which is a sport the place you possibly can’t name completely different performs or blitz extra, and the place simply making an attempt more durable is commonly counterproductive.

However there’s been criticism of Harper developing small in massive moments and, yeah, seems that’s proper on the cash.

In 43 high-leverage plate appearances this yr, Harper is hitting .152/.326/.182. The 5 hits he’s managed embody 4 singles and a double. It boggles the thoughts for 3 causes: First, it’s onerous to think about anybody being that unhealthy in any pattern. Second, Harper’s been superior usually this yr; his struggles in high-leverage conditions solely entered into this text as a result of he’s been one of many 15 greatest hitters within the majors this season. And third, all of us bear in mind this, proper?

OMG BRYCE HARPER!!! WOW!!! THE SWING OF HIS LIFE!!! pic.twitter.com/9UWmROAuNV

— FOX Sports activities: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 23, 2022

I used to be within the constructing for that dwelling run. It’s one of many clutchest issues I’ve ever seen in individual, and never unrepresentative of Harper’s playoff profession. In 49 profession postseason video games, he’s hitting .276/.383/.613. Since becoming a member of the Phillies, he’s .286/.455/.643 within the postseason and .278/.417/.493 in 295 high-leverage regular-season plate appearances. Earlier than this annus horribilis of the clutch, Harper was a .299/.433/.546 hitter as a Phillie in high-leverage regular-season conditions.

I’m not unreceptive to the likelihood that Harper is urgent in massive conditions this season. He’s extra conspicuously conscious of his context and leverage state of affairs — each in-game and relative to the pursuit of a championship — than any hitter I’ve ever seen. And the road between rising to the event and making an attempt to do an excessive amount of is impossibly skinny.

But when I had the sport on the road and the selection between having Harper or Varsho on the plate, I’d nonetheless decide Harper. Clutchness just isn’t intangible; in baseball, it’s really extremely quantifiable. However solely looking back.

You wish to know the way I do know? As a result of Harper led the league — actually led the league — in Clutch final yr. In reality, let’s do the identical experiment utilizing final yr’s stats: Take the highest 15 within the league in wRC+ and Clutch in 2023, and evaluate their high-leverage efficiency in 2024.

This time, there are three crossovers: Harper, Carroll, and Ronald Acuña Jr. So by taking them out, we’re decreasing the pattern to 12 good hitters and 12 clutch hitters. 5 hitters — Freeman, Soto, Ozuna, Harper, and Ohtani — appeared on the Good checklist in each 2023 and 2024. Solely two — Stott and Carroll — appeared on each Clutch lists.

Anyway, taking that longer lead time into consideration, right here’s how the most effective and most clutch hitters of 2023, respectively, are doing in high-leverage conditions in 2024.

This time there’s no comparability. The nice hitters from 2023 are miles forward of the clutch hitters.

I might’ve saved myself loads of bother by doing this math all these years in the past. The explanation I misplaced that argument is that it was principally backward-looking. You may inform who has been a greater hitter in clutch conditions, however previous returns should not a assure of future efficiency. Harping on the previous could be cathartic for functions of venting on Twitter or discuss radio, nevertheless it’s not a constructive predictor of the longer term. If you wish to discover essentially the most clutch hitters of tomorrow, you’re higher off taking a look at the most effective total hitters of right now.