The White Sox Are Collapsing Towards Immortality

The 2024 season began completely terribly for the White Sox. After 25 video games, the staff’s report stood at 3-22, thanks largely to an anemic offense that hardly scored two runs per recreation. On the time – the Sox have been 3-21 after I wrote the piece – I posed the query of whether or not the White Sox had an actual shot at dropping 120 video games. I concluded that it was attainable, with ZiPS projecting an 8.1% probability that Chicago would lose 120 video games, higher odds than even the Oakland A’s throughout their brutal 2023 season. That gave the impression to be the tip of the story, not less than till July.

After the terrible begin, issues bought barely sunnier for the Sox for awhile. They swept the Tampa Bay Rays, a staff anticipated to be a contender, and over the following not-so-nice 69 video games, they went 24-45. Whereas a .348 successful share isn’t in the identical zip code as competence, that’s a 56-win tempo, a degree of lousiness that’s pretty commonplace for the worst groups within the league, not the stuff of legend. However because the commerce deadline approached, issues once more turned grim.

The White Sox gained the primary recreation of a doubleheader in opposition to the Twins on July 10, enhancing their report to 27-67. That date, nearly a month in the past, was the final time the White Sox gained a recreation. The staff’s 21 straight losses ties them with the 1988 Orioles for the second-most consecutive losses in trendy baseball historical past (since 1901), simply two losses behind the most important loser, the 1961 Philadelphia Phillies. In some sense, the present one may be probably the most spectacular dropping streak, just because the variations between the perfect and worst groups in baseball has shrunk through the years, making streaks like this tougher to attain.

And no, the White Sox haven’t been unfortunate. Utilizing a modified Pythagorean successful share (I exploit 1.83 for the exponent fairly than two, because it’s been barely extra correct traditionally), the White Sox have been the fourth-worst staff since 1901.

If the season ended right this moment, the White Sox would have the worst modified Pythagorean win share in additional than 80 years, because the Philadelphia Phils in 1942. No, that’s not a typo; the Phillies formally shortened their staff identify for a season in 1942, apparently as a result of they determined they didn’t need to have the identical identify as the road of cigars.

Drawback is, the season doesn’t finish right this moment, so the Sox haven’t closed the deal but. Regression towards the imply is an actual factor, and one of many main explanation why individuals overrate groups when issues are going very nicely, and vice-versa. On the finish of the day, a .235 successful share or the .272 in modified Pythag are possible – although not assured – to go up over the remaining video games. Projections symbolize a extra secure description of a staff’s potential, in addition to one which’s typically extra predictive of the longer term, and even with the diminished post-deadline roster, ZiPS sees the White Sox as “solely” a .355 staff, a 58-104 tempo that represents merely a ho-hum degree of awfulness.

Nevertheless it’s additionally possible that given extra video games, these different horrible groups possible would have performed higher ball as nicely, for comparable causes. (Bear in mind, Main League Baseball didn’t implement the present 162-game schedule till 1961.) Whereas ZiPS projections date again to 2005, I’ve a fast little estimator for a staff’s underlying potential that correlates pretty nicely with projections; it’s a mixture of precise report, a staff’s “wRC Pythagorean” — which makes use of wRC fairly than runs rating and allowed — and a mannequin of regression towards .500. So I calculated the worst groups by this methodology and in contrast them to Chicago’s .356 estimate.

Whew, the White Sox as soon as once more fall to satisfyingly hurlicious ranges because the worst staff because the 1952 Pirates. And the factor is that for the Sox, a .355 report is awful sufficient that they stand a great opportunity at dropping 120 video games anyway with the variety of losses they have already got banked. With 47 video games to play, a .355 report would internet them solely 16.7 wins, leaving them at slightly below a 44-118 report, tantalizingly near the 1962 Mets commonplace. And since we all know that projections aren’t excellent, or not less than possibly actuality isn’t, that provides the White Sox ample room to proceed to underperform and take the grand prize. Fortunately, ZiPS can handle that estimate.

Even with issues projected to not go fairly as badly, ZiPS offers the White Sox a barely higher than one-in-three probability (34%) to lose 120 video games. And it may get even worse, with a 1% projected shot of ending with a 35-127 report (or worse). That’s championship brutality proper there. The amusing factor is that this likelihood may’ve been even larger, however the White Sox didn’t commerce Garrett Crochet or Luis Robert Jr. on the deadline, leaving the staff encumbered with a further 2-3 wins. If I take away Crochet and Robert Jr. in favor of their possible sub-replacement replacements, ZiPS initiatives the Pale Hose to have a 66% probability of dropping not less than 120 video games!

I’m unsure I’d go as far as to name it a silver lining, however hope stays even for probably the most woeful groups in baseball. The final staff to make a severe late run at 120 losses, the 2003 Tigers, improved shortly within the following seasons and made it to the World Sequence simply three years later. These 1952 Pirates have been in the midst of a full rebuild helmed by legendary normal supervisor Department Rickey, employed in ’51, and although well being issues compelled him to step down in ’55, the group assembled most of the key gamers who have been on the World Sequence-winning staff in ’60. And let’s not overlook that seven years after dropping 120 video games, the Mets gained the 1969 World Sequence. White Sox proprietor Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t one to embrace change, however a catastrophe of epic proportions may, in principle, be the one factor that might immediate him to overtake the group. I wouldn’t say I’m terribly optimistic about this truly occurring, however with an improved farm system – we now rank Chicago’s farm because the third finest in baseball – and possibly a greater entrance workplace assembled, the Sox may flip issues round.

Whether or not the White Sox have a brighter future is one thing we’ll have to attend to seek out out. For now, get pleasure from these Sox as they attain new ranges of ineptitude, as a result of they often is the worst main league staff you’ll ever see.