The Dodgers’ defeat of the Padres on Wednesday night time did rather a lot to clear up the final suspenseful division race by restoring their NL West result in three video games, lowering their magic quantity to 2, and reducing the San Diego’s odds of successful the division to three%. The larger story, nonetheless — an infuriating one given commissioner Rob Manfred’s unwillingness to override the Braves’ profit-minded intransigence with some proactive schedule shifting — is the Hurricane Helene-induced postponement of the ultimate two video games of the Mets-Braves sequence. Except the Diamondbacks slide fully out of the image, the 2 NL East rivals will now play a 1:10 p.m. ET doubleheader in Atlanta on Monday, the day after the scheduled finish of the common season. Whichever of the 2 groups survives (presumably each) would then face flights to Milwaukee (locked in because the third seed) and/or California (both Los Angeles or San Diego because the fourth seed) to start out their respective Wild Card sequence the following day, with their pitching staffs at a big drawback. Ugh, ugh, ugh.
Anyway, having gone across the horn after which some to establish the strongest gamers at every place among the many remaining contenders within the Nationwide and American Leagues, we now flip to the weakest ones. That is one thing of an offshoot of my annual Alternative Degree Killers sequence, and actually, even some confirmed October contributors have spots that also match the invoice as true lineup sinkholes, solely this time with no commerce deadline to assist fill them. For this, I’m contemplating full-season efficiency however with a watch to who’s finest or worst now, with accidents and changes in thoughts. In contrast to the Killers sequence, I’m additionally contemplating pitching, with the shortening of rotations and bullpens factoring into my deliberations.
On this installment, I’ll spotlight the largest hassle spots from amongst an NL area that features the Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Mets, and Braves.
Catcher: Kyle Higashioka and Elias Díaz, Padres
Padres catchers have mixed for 1.0 WAR, the bottom mark of any remaining contender in both league by 1.4 WAR. The current addition of Elias Díaz by way of waivers, and the following optioning of Luis Campusano — whose 83 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR, with ghastly defensive metrics in each taste, are what has actually weighed that rating down — mitigates that considerably. Nonetheless, a pairing of Díaz with Kyle Higashioka stands out extra as flimsy relative to the competitors than an precise legal responsibility. Higashioka is a better-than-average hitter for a backstop because of his energy; he hit .218/.264/.470 (104 wRC+), with 16 residence runs in 251 plate appearances, and he’s a minimum of respectable defensively (3.7 FRM, -3 FRV together with blocking and throwing). Díaz is weaker with the bat (.266/.315/.381, 82 wRC+) however equally strong behind the plate. Now if solely they’d a former shortstop who may catch…
First Base: Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers, Brewers
After lacking all the 2023 season because of a torn ACL, Rhys Hoskins has struggled mightily, batting simply .213/.303/.415 (100 wRC+). He’s nonetheless offered sufficient pop to hit 25 residence runs, however he’s not hitting the ball as arduous as he did earlier than his damage, he’s hanging out extra typically, and let’s face it, protection nonetheless isn’t his robust go well with. Jake Bauers, who has began 58 video games to Hoskins’ 86 (with the latter making 36 begins at DH), is the higher defender, however as his .197/.299/.363 (87 wRC+) slashline exhibits, he has but to indicate he’s above Quad-A caliber. Hoskins has hit for a 117 wRC+ with a lot better Statcast numbers in September, so perhaps there’s a glimmer of hope right here, however except San Diego’s Luis Arraez/Jake Cronenworth/Donovan Solano mishmash, the remainder of the NL area options good-to-great first basemen, and I’d take that Pad pod over the Brewers’ pair.
Second Base: Ozzie Albies, Braves
Whereas I thought-about the Phillies’ Bryson Stott (who has hit for simply an 84 wRC+ within the second half) for this spot, he and his backups have greater than doubled the WAR of Braves second basemen (3.0 to 1.2), even with Whit Merrifield enjoying extra successfully for the latter membership than the previous. Atlanta’s drawback has rather a lot to do with Ozzie Albies lacking two months because of a fractured left wrist. Albies is again, however he’s simply 3-for-19 with a house run and an 85.3-mph common exit velocity in 4 video games, and has hit a modest .253/.303/.403 (94 wRC+) with 9 homers this yr, properly off final yr’s efficiency (124 wRC+, 33 HR). The Braves have larger liabilities (see under), however I’m not but satisfied that makes Albies an asset in his present type.
Shortstop: Orlando Arcia, Braves
In 2023, Orlando Arcia stepped into the beginning shortstop position vacated by departed free agent Dansby Swanson and turned a sizzling first half into the primary All-Star collection of his profession; even after cooling off final season, he completed with a good .264/.321/.420 (100 wRC+) line and a couple of.4 WAR. This yr, nonetheless, he wound up on my midseason Alternative Degree Killers listing, and whereas he’s had a greater second half (95 wRC+) than first (56 wRC+), his general efficiency (.219/.271/.357, 72 wRC+, 1.0 WAR) makes him by far the least precious of any common shortstop on an NL contender — and his monitor report, together with his struggles in Milwaukee, put him a lot nearer to this season’s stage than final yr’s.
Third Base: Gio Urshela, Braves
It’s not my intent to maintain choosing on the Braves, however they’re in a bind right here, and the competitors at this place is stiff. Eugenio Suárez was my choose for the place’s strongest on the premise of his sizzling second half, getting the nod over Alec Bohm and Manny Machado, with Max Muncy, Joey Ortiz, and Mark Vientos all having good seasons as properly. Austin Riley wasn’t enjoying as much as his normal stage earlier than he fractured his proper hand on August 18, however he’d have match into that latter cluster simply advantageous and would’ve made this alternative a really tough one. Sadly, whereas the Braves hoped Riley would return in time for the playoffs, on Tuesday they revealed {that a} CT scan taken earlier this week confirmed his hand hadn’t healed sufficient to make him a viable choice earlier than the tip of the postseason. That places fill-in Gio Urshela into the crosshairs. Launched by the Tigers in mid-August after posting a 75 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR, he has carried out respectably since being picked up by the Braves (.270/.288/.426, 95 wRC+ in 118 PA), however even when he may preserve that stage, he’d nonetheless be the least interesting choice of this group.
Left Discipline: Brandon Nimmo, Mets
I used to be all set to go along with the Braves right here as properly till digging into their current utilization sample, with hot-hitting Ramón Laureano (.301/.332/.510, 131 wRC+ in 205 PA for the staff after being launched by the Guardians) enjoying kind of full time these days whereas Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall have been justifiably benched for tried alternative stage killing. As a substitute I’m going with Brandon Nimmo. The usually dependable outfielder’s 111 wRC+ and a couple of.8 WAR are properly under his normal requirements as a result of he’s hit an anemic .190/.285/.319 (70 wRC+) for the reason that All-Star break. Even with 4 residence runs in his previous 10 video games, his wRC+ for the month remains to be simply 81. Perhaps he’s rising from his hunch, however at a place the place 5 different common left fielders on NL contenders have produced a 130 wRC+ or higher within the second half, he’s not pulling his weight.
Heart Discipline: Harrison Bader, Mets
Nimmo isn’t the one Mets outfielder in a chronic hunch. Harrison Bader has out-funked his teammate, batting .177/.245/.300 (57 wRC+) in 143 PA within the second half, and has hit for simply an 83 wRC+ with 1.5 WAR general. He’s nonetheless a good flychaser, although his 10 FRV doesn’t line up with average-ish totals in DRS (-2) and UZR (0.2).
Proper Discipline: Sal Frelick, Brewers
A former first-round choose (2021) and top-50 prospect (2023), Sal Frelick is a speedy hit-over-power kind whose offensive profile makes way more sense in middle area (the place he’s noticed often) than in proper. He merely doesn’t hit the ball arduous sufficient. His 83.4 mph common exit velo, 0.8% barrel charge (that’s three barrels in 395 batted ball occasions), and 19.5% hard-hit charge all rank final among the many 130 batting title-qualified hitters, and it’s translated right into a meager .259/.321/.334 line, along with his 86 wRC+ second-to-last among the many gamers whose main place is correct area. His defensive worth helps to offset the sunshine bat; even with some small-sample weirdness in left area, he’s totaled 13 DRS, 6 FRV and 4.2 UZR throughout the three outfield positions en path to 1.5 WAR.
Designated Hitter: J.D. Martinez, Mets
Final yr with the Dodgers, J.D. Martinez reunited with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc, who a decade in the past helped him unlock his energy by hitting the ball within the air with larger frequency, thus placing him on the forefront of the launch angle revolution and on the trail to stardom. The reunion helped Martinez to his finest season since 2019, a 33-homer, 135-wRC+ efficiency, however the signing of Shohei Ohtani put him out of a job in Los Angeles. He languished on the free agent market till late March, and after signing with the Mets, wanted a minor league tuneup and didn’t debut till April 26. For awhile issues went very properly, as he hit .263/.349/.457 (130 wRC+) with 10 residence runs in 278 PA earlier than the All-Star break. He’s joined Nimmo and Bader within the dumps since then, batting simply .194/.276/.339 (77 wRC+), together with a 3-for-44 September worthy of placing his face on the facet of a milk carton. Have you ever seen this slugger?
Rotation: Dodgers
It’s not that the Dodgers have been doomed to repeat final yr’s Division Collection unraveling as a result of they forgot what occurred. They loaded up on high-end beginning pitching this previous winter by signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto and buying and selling for Tyler Glasnow, then including James Paxton and bringing again Clayton Kershaw with a plan for him to return from main shoulder surgical procedure in midsummer. With these pitchers — fragile although they might have been — becoming a member of their present wealth of younger arms (together with Walker Buehler and Dustin Might, each coming back from elbow surgical procedures), the Dodgers figured they’d sufficient pitching to make it via the season and assemble a robust rotation for the playoffs.
It hasn’t occurred that method, as each common starter of theirs moreover the oft-injured Paxton — together with all the aforementioned plus Bobby Miller — landed on the IL in some unspecified time in the future, with Miller and Buehler pitching like shadows of their former selves and incomes demotions to Triple-A Oklahoma Metropolis. Now their solely two starters to succeed in the 100-inning threshold — Glasnow and rookie Gavin Stone — have been accomplished in by arm accidents (an elbow sprain for the previous, shoulder irritation for the latter). Kershaw is on the IL because of a bone spur in his left huge toe, and Yamamoto has but to pitch greater than 4 innings in a begin since coming back from a 12-week absence because of a rotator cuff pressure. Even with the acquisition of Jack Flaherty forward of the commerce deadline, the Los Angeles rotation has produced a 5.02 ERA and 4.75 FIP since July 30, and rookie Landon Knack and the struggling Buehler could very properly want to start out alongside Yamamoto and Flaherty within the Division Collection. Not even a $255 million payroll should buy certainty.
Bullpen: Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks reached the World Collection final yr regardless of an unsteady bullpen that was tremendously aided by their buying and selling for nearer Paul Sewald on the deadline. Sadly for them, Sewald pitched his method out of the ninth inning job by blowing 4 saves in July, and his alternative, Justin Martinez, has allowed runs in 10 of his 22 appearances since notching his first save on August 5, changing eight out of 9 save probabilities however taking 4 losses alongside the best way. The bullpen fared very properly in August (3.34 ERA, 2.97 FIP) however has been terrible in September (6.39 ERA, 4.24 FIP) due largely to a .362 BABIP and much an excessive amount of arduous contact. Whereas one deadline acquisition, A.J. Puk, is driving a streak of twenty-two 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings, one other addition, Dylan Floro, pitched his method off the roster with a double-digit ERA; in the meantime setup man Ryan Thompson has been lit for a 6.86 ERA for the reason that begin of August, and Sewald has landed on the IL with neck discomfort. Dangerous pitching (together with the starters) has been the main driver of Arizona’s 4-7 skid that has stored the door large open for each the Braves and Mets, climate be damned.
Protection: Padres
Among the many remaining NL contenders, the Padres have the bottom DRS (-9) and UZR (-8.4), and so they’re inside one run of the bottom FRV (-12). To be truthful, these numbers are weighed down by the since-demoted Campusano, however of their present state, the Padres do have points. The return of Fernando Tatis Jr. from a 10-week absence because of a stress response in his proper femur has been offset by the lack of shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to a bout of shoulder irritation. His absence has destabilized the protection by sending Xander Bogaerts again to the place they moved him off this spring, which with the shift of Cronenworth again to second has pressured the DH-caliber Arraez to play first among the time. The timing of Kim’s return is unclear; in the meantime, Tatis isn’t having something near the type of season that gained him final yr’s Platinum Glove, and left fielder Jurickson Profar is a specific legal responsibility primarily based on the metrics. Even so, none of this has stopped the Padres from placing collectively one of the best second-half report (40-18, .695) in baseball.
