Mets followers have their narrative: Sean Manaea was outstanding in Sport 3 of the NLDS, preserving the Phillies in verify over seven-plus innings and main his membership to a convincing 7-2 victory. Phillies followers have their narrative, too: The NL East champs performed uncompetitive baseball all night, pushing them to the brink of elimination. The previous narrative offers the Mets all of the company (they received as a result of they performed effectively!), whereas second offers the Phillies all of the blame (they misplaced as a result of they performed so poorly!), however that doesn’t imply they each can’t be true. The Mets have been firing on all cylinders in Sport 3, and the Phillies didn’t do a lot to cease them.
Coming into play on Tuesday, all 4 Division Sequence have been tied up 1-1. That successfully turned every collection right into a three-game set – and a three-game set during which the decrease seeds held home-field benefit. It’s no secret the Phillies love enjoying at Residents Financial institution Park; their 54-27 (.667) report at residence this season was the most effective in baseball, whereas their 41-40 (.506) report on the street was tied for thirteenth. Nonetheless, the Phillies nonetheless had an ace up their sleeve as they packed their luggage and left for Queens. They solely needed to win one sport at Citi Area and so they might come again residence to a different Zack Wheeler begin on the Financial institution. That’s an enormous purpose why they got here into tonight’s sport with a 61% likelihood to advance to the NLCS, in addition to the very best World Sequence odds among the many eight remaining groups.
Manaea had one thing to say about that. The veteran left-hander is coming off arguably the most effective season of his nine-year profession. By WAR and FIP, his 2021 marketing campaign was barely higher, however his 3.47 ERA, 181.2 innings pitched, and 1.82 WPA have been all profession bests. The driving pressure behind his success this yr was his sinker, which he featured as his main pitch (as he had in 2021) and threw with extra horizontal motion. Neither PitchingBot nor Stuff+ was particularly enamored with the pitch, however the outcomes spoke for themselves: Based on Baseball Savant, Manaea’s sinker had a +15 run worth in 2024, the fifth-highest mark amongst all sinkers within the league.
In Sport 3, Manaea complemented that sinker with a heavier dose of his sweeper and changeup than common, opting to largely eschew the remainder of his arsenal. Trimming his pitch combine labored effectively for Manaea down the stretch this yr, and it continued to work effectively on Tuesday. He earned seven swings and misses on every of his secondaries for a mixed 50% whiff price. That proved particularly useful contemplating that his sinker lacked a few of its typical horizontal break; the Phillies hit it arduous, placing six in play with a 99.3-mph common exit velocity.
All informed, Manaea wasn’t all the time sharp; he walked two batters, hit two extra, and gave up six batted balls with an exit velocity over 101 mph. However once more, it’s arduous to argue with the outcomes. He went seven-plus innings on 91 pitches, and the one run he allowed was on a runner he bequeathed to Phil Maton within the high of the eighth. He by no means threw greater than 17 pitches or confronted greater than 5 batters in an inning. He gave up his justifiable share of arduous contact and balls within the air, however by no means let one attain the stands; a couple of regarded shut off the bat, however none would have left the yard at any main league ballpark. Lastly, and maybe most significantly, Manaea saved the Phillies’ two harmful lefty bats, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, at bay. He additionally saved platoon bats Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott out of the lineup till he exited within the eighth. The Phillies clearly wanted to run up Manaea’s pitch rely and get him out of the sport sooner, however they couldn’t get it finished.
The remainder of the staff supplied greater than sufficient help behind Manaea, letting Carlos Mendoza really feel safe about giving his starter a protracted leash. The Mets scored seven runs on 9 hits and 5 walks. Pete Alonso returned to Citi Area after saying his potential goodbye final month and hit a no-doubter in his first at-bat; Jesse Winker added a towering shot of his personal two innings later. Eight of the 9 gamers within the Mets’ beginning lineup reached base, and the one one who didn’t, Tyrone Taylor, made a superb defensive play to catch Alec Bohm making an attempt to stretch a single right into a double within the high of the fourth:
That play could be nearly as good a segue as any into the opposite central narrative of the sport: The Phillies have been sloppy in Sport 3. No particular person participant deserves all of the blame, however few escaped the night time’s motion with out botching or bungling one thing. Aaron Nola wasn’t terrible; in truth, there have been instances when he regarded fairly good. His velocity was up, he saved his pitch rely low, and he struck out eight. He retired Francisco Lindor all 3 times he confronted him. Nonetheless, the Phillies wanted greater than five-plus innings and 4 earned runs out of Nola. The Mets have been sitting on his four-seam right away, and he paid the value on Alonso’s homer within the backside of the second. He paid once more when he gave Winker a juicy meatball within the backside of the fourth; it was a barely extra hittable pitch than the similarly-located fastball Winker almost despatched into the seats two innings earlier:
Nola bumped into extra hassle within the sixth, giving up a single to Mark Vientos and strolling Brandon Nimmo to place two runners on with no outs. It was the primary time he needed to pitch with a number of runners on base, and the primary time he needed to pitch with a runner in scoring place. It’s at this level that we might level the finger of blame towards Rob Thomson, who selected to let Nola face Alonso for a 3rd time quite than go to the bullpen. It was solely after Nola walked Alonso to load the bases that Thomson known as for Orion Kerkering; the younger fireballer recorded two outs earlier than giving up a two-run single to Starling Marte.
Thomson made the identical mistake the next inning, this time letting José Alvarado face Alonso with runners on first and second. Alvarado has fallen far down the Phillies’ bullpen depth chart since final October, largely attributable to his ridiculously excessive stroll price towards right-handed batters this yr. Lo and behold, he walked Alonso to load the bases, and solely then did Thomson name for a pitching change. Even stranger, Thomson known as in José Ruiz, famously a low-leverage arm, with the bases loaded in a four-run ballgame. All-Star relievers Carlos Estévez, Matt Strahm, and Jeff Hoffman have been left sitting proper there ready whereas Ruiz gave up a two-run single to Jose Iglesias.
And the Phillies’ issues have been hardly restricted to pitching. There was Bohm’s poor baserunning within the fourth. There was Harper putting out on three swings instantly after Manaea issued two consecutive walks to open the highest of the sixth. There was Trea Turner failing to catch J.T. Realmuto’s laser of a throw and apply the tag to Harrison Bader stealing second within the backside of the body. Even Nick Castellanos‘ phenomenal second-inning catch in proper was adopted by him dropping the ball on the switch. That one turned out to be no hurt, no foul – the runner couldn’t advance from first anyway, and Nola escaped the inning unscathed – but it surely was one other instance of the Phillies failing to execute:
A typical theme to every of these debacles? The Phillies began with one thing good, solely to mess it up. Bohm laced a wonderful base hit to the outfield, however was thrown out. The Phillies lastly bought one thing going towards Manaea with no outs, however squandered the chance. Realmuto made a powerful throw, however Turner missed the catch. Castellanos made an ideal catch, however dropped the ball earlier than he might flip a double play. For lack of a greater phrase, it was sloppy. Even worse, it might need been an omen.
From 2008 to 2011, the Phillies improved on their common season report every year solely to take a step again in every subsequent the postseason. They received the World Sequence in 2008, misplaced within the World Sequence in 2009, misplaced within the NLCS in 2010, and misplaced within the NLDS in 2011. Now, the present membership is liable to fumbling the bag as soon as once more. They received their first NL East title 2011, however they’re getting dangerously near an early postseason exit.
The Mets and their followers left the ballpark on Tuesday feeling nice a few terrific win. The entire staff got here collectively behind a superb Manaea to maintain the magic going towards their hardest opponent but. In the meantime, the Phillies and their followers are left completely disenchanted by a sloppy efficiency throughout the board. And naturally, these narratives are interconnected. The Mets have been solely nearly as good because the Phillies allowed them to be. The Phillies have been solely so dangerous as a result of the Mets capitalized on their errors. Alonso’s residence run was his success and Nola’s failure. The identical is true for Taylor’s terrific throw to nail Bohm at second base. Thomson’s bullpen administration was solely proved poor as a result of the Mets’ offense was relentless. Manaea regarded so nice as a result of the Phillies’ offense got here up quick.
Now, with a 2-1 lead within the NLDS, the Mets are the favorites to win the collection. However they’re solely the favorites as a result of the Phillies gave up that title, and the Phillies are solely the underdogs as a result of the Mets made it so.
