The betting markets have tabbed Scottie Scheffler as the favourite to raise his first claret jug this Sunday at Royal Troon. It’s a well-recognized place for Scheffler, a six-time winner this yr who has entered each main championship as the favourite.
However ought to he actually be the favourite getting into this Open Championship?
Those that say sure will level to the numbers, together with the truth that Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained strategy and greens in regulation whereas rating second in whole driving and proximity to the opening – all strong indicators for achievement at this week’s cease on the Open rota.
However those that aspect with the nos will argue that it’s not at all times merely what the numbers say. We haven’t seen Scheffler because the Vacationers Championship (he received that one, too, by the best way) and that final time we noticed him at a serious he was tying for forty first at Pinehurst No. 2 – and he was considerably outspoken about not liking the luck component of the Donald Ross gem; that doesn’t go away at Troon, the place pot bunkers, gorse and different enjoyable stuff lurk, and the place we may see some climate (30-35 mph gusts are already forecasted for Thursday’s opening spherical).
And talking of the U.S. Open, Rory McIlroy is coming off one more heartbreaker, although he bounced again shortly with a T-4 on the Genesis Scottish Open, and McIlroy’s driving means is at all times going to be a bonus at a course like Troon, the place guys equivalent to Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Åberg all arrange effectively and have at the very least some respectable momentum.
A pair bits of historical past that do go in Scheffler’s favor: Royal Troon’s listing of champions (six of the previous seven winners right here have been American) and low-scoring propensity (every of its final 4 championships have produced a successful rating of double-digits below par, together with Henrik Stenson’s 20-under efficiency in 2016; Scheffler leads the Tour in birdie common by over a half-birdie per spherical).
So, with all that mentioned, is Scheffler my favourite this week?
Let’s discover out – however solely after I rank each gamers within the 158-man discipline, plus present evaluation on the highest 50 of this rating:
Nos. 141-158
158. Todd Hamilton
157. John Daly
156. Jack McDonald
155. Elvis Smylie
154. Denwit Boriboonsub
153. Darren Clarke
152. Jasper Stubbs (a)
151. Charlie Lindh
150. Aguri Iwasaki
149. Altin van der Merwe (a)
148. Justin Leonard
147. Sam Hutsby
146. Jaime Montojo (a)
145. Jeung-Hun Wang
144. Luis Masaveu (a)
143. Liam Nolan (a)
142. Darren Fichardt
141. Alex Cejka
Nos. 131-140
140. Matthew Dodd-Berry (a)
139. Michael Hendry
138. Masahiro Kawamura
137. Kazuma Kobori
136. Ryosuke Kinoshita
135. Gun-Taek Koh
134. Phil Mickelson
133. Sam Horsfield
132. Padraig Harrington
131. Andy Ogletree
Nos. 121-130
130. Tommy Morrison (a)
129. Mason Andersen
128. Marcel Siem
127. Minkyu Kim
126. Vincent Norrman
125. Daniel Hillier
124. Dominic Clemons (a)
123. Ernie Els
122. Jacob Skov Olesen (a)
121. Jorge Campillo
Nos. 111-120
120. Alexander Bjork
119. Daniel Brown
118. Santiago de la Fuente (a)
117. Ryan Van Velzen
116. Henrik Stenson
115. Tiger Woods
114. Younghan Track
113. Nacho Elvira
112. Gary Woodland
111. Stewart Cink
Nos. 101-110
110. Dan Bradbury
109. Matthew Southgate
108. Angel Hidalgo
107. John Catlin
106. Sean Crocker
105. Yannik Paul
104. Thorbjorn Olesen
103. Jesper Svensson
102. Matt Wallace
101. Yuto Katsuragawa
Nos. 91-100
100. Rikuya Hoshino
99. Joost Luiten
98. Nick Taylor
97. Joe Dean
96. Shubhankar Sharma
95. Francesco Molinari
94. Calum Scott (a)
93. Zach Johnson
92. Romain Langasque
91. Rickie Fowler
Nos. 81-90
90. Alex Noren
89. Mackenzie Hughes
88. Richard Mansell
87. Brendon Todd
86. Thriston Lawrence
85. Ben Griffin
84. C.T. Pan
83. Adam Schenk
82. Eric Cole
81. Sami Valimaki
CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA – MAY 26: Gordon Sargent of the Vanderbilt Commodores hits through the Division I Males’s Golf Championship held at Omni La Costa Resort & Spa on Might 26, 2024 in Carlsbad, California. (Photograph by C. Morgan Engel/NCAA Pictures through Getty Photos)
NCAA Pictures through Getty Photos
Nos. 71-80
80. Chris Kirk
79. Abraham Ancer
78. Justin Rose
77. Guido Migliozzi
76. Denny McCarthy
75. Dustin Johnson
74. Ryo Hisatsune
73. Ryan Fox
72. Gordon Sargent (a)
71. David Puig
Nos. 61-70
70. Louis Oosthuizen
69. Matteo Manassero
68. Keita Nakajima
67. Nicolai Hojgaard
66. Sebastian Soderberg
65. Emiliano Grillo
64. Taylor Moore
63. Matthew Jordan
62. Ewen Ferguson
61. Adrian Meronk
Nos. 51-60
60. Adam Hadwin
59. Rasmus Hojgaard
58. Keegan Bradley
57. J.T. Poston
56. Jordan Smith
55. Max Homa
54. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
53. Stephan Jaeger
52. Tom Hoge
51. Laurie Canter
Nos. 41-50
50. Billy Horschel
49. Harris English
48. Jason Day
47. Maverick McNealy
46. Austin Eckroat
45. Matthieu Pavon
44. Cameron Smith
43. Lucas Glover
42. Will Zalatoris
41. Dean Burmester
Horschel missed the Scottish lower, his first MC since Valero, as his ball-striking has began to fade barely. However he’s had a little bit of success on hyperlinks (T-21 at St. Andrews) and is likely one of the extra correct drivers on Tour. … No top-10s since Genesis and never an awesome Open observe file, however English is sort of prime 20 in whole driving and closed in 65 to complete T-34 in Scotland. … Day has been so-so of late, principally due to strategy play, although T-2 final yr at Royal Liverpool and it’s at all times good to drive and putt it effectively at these Opens. … McNealy’s Deere missed lower halted some good momentum that included a T-7 in Canada. However he’s prime 40 in whole driving, hits it low off the tee and is an effective lag putter. … Possibly a type of guys who ought to be ranked increased, Eckroat is prime 20 in whole driving and strokes gained strategy. He did miss the Scottish lower in his first style of hyperlinks(ish) as a professional. … Sure, Pavon was simply fifth on the U.S. Open, however he additionally missed the Scottish lower and has been so up and down of late. … Smith ranked this low?! The 2021 Open champ is final among the many LIV guys right here in whole driving. However maybe his T-6 at Valderrama is an indication this rating is lifeless improper. … Glover hasn’t performed an Open in a couple of years, although he was T-20 at Portrush. He has been masterful at hitting his irons shut (third in proximity) and may discover fairways with one of the best of them. … Zalatoris hasn’t performed since withdrawing from Detroit due to his again. He returned on the Scottish and missed the lower, and he didn’t drive it effectively in any respect. However that may very well be rust. This rating appears about proper contemplating the query marks. … Burmester cooled off after a robust first spherical at Valderrama. If he can discover fairways, he’ll be strong right here.
Nos. 31-40
40. Robert MacIntyre
39. Matt Fitzpatrick
38. Russell Henley
37. Kurt Kitayama
36. Sepp Straka
35. Victor Perez
34. Patrick Cantlay
33. Byeong Hun An
32. Tom McKibbin
31. Sam Burns
The Scottish champ, MacIntyre vowed to spend the early week in celebration. When he makes it to the primary tee, he’s nonetheless barely within the prime 100 in whole driving, although he was prime 10 in strokes off the tee and strategy final day trip. … Fitzpatrick once more misplaced strokes off the tee and on strategy in Scotland, although he’s nonetheless going to discover a ton of fairways and he’s not missed an Open lower in his final 4 tries. … The Open struggles have gotten to finish sooner or later for Henley, who has 5 MCs in 9 profession begins. Throw out a foul placing week at Vacationers and Henley has six finishes of T-27 or higher in seven occasions, together with a stunning T-7 at Pinehurst. … T-60 final yr was Kitayama’s greatest Open end, although I’m going to most likely lean a little bit greater than most on the truth that he hasn’t misplaced strokes off the tee since Memphis final yr. … Straka exited the Scottish early, although he ought to get again to hitting it on a line and has some confidence nonetheless with a T-2 final yr at Royal Liverpool. … Perez upset on the U.S. Open after a 3rd in Canada and T-12 at Memorial, however the T-10 on the Scottish was promising. Driver hasn’t been the problem, and he’s fifth on Tour in three-putt avoidance from exterior 25 ft. … Cantlay is coming off a T-5 at Vacationers and T-3 on the U.S. Open, and he’s been strong at current Opens, although I’m nonetheless not completely bought the ball-striking will rise up sufficient to contend. On the flip aspect, he’s most likely a lock for a prime 35, as he’s finished that in eight of his final 9 majors. … An backed up Friday to overlook the Scottish lower, however I like his size and skill to drive it effectively. Plus, he’s been T-32 or higher in three straight Opens. … I nearly put McKibbin, the 21-year-old from Holywood increased, as he’s fourth on the DPWT in strokes gained off the tee, almost prime 10 in driving accuracy and prime 30 in strokes gained strategy. He was T-41 in his main debut ultimately month’s U.S. Open. … Liked the T-9 at Pinehurst out of Burns, although regardless of his elite driving, he’s acquired to show it first throughout the pond (nothing higher than T-42 at an Open).
Nos. 21-30
30. Hideki Matsuyama
29. Aaron Rai
28. Brian Harman
27. Jordan Spieth
26. Joaquin Niemann
25. Adam Scott
24. Tom Kim
23. Sahith Theegala
22. Justin Thomas
21. Brooks Koepka
A Scottish MC ended Matsuyama’s good run (T-8 at Memorial, sixth at U.S. Open, T-23 at Vacationers), and although it’s only one occasion, take into accout he’s effectively exterior the highest 100 in whole driving. … Rai was among the many final males in because of his T-4 on the Scottish, and he’s acquired the chops to outperform this rating. 5 straight top-20s and a few stellar ball-striking. … The reigning Champion Golfer of the 12 months, Harman, enters his title protection having completed T-26 or higher in six of his final eight begins, together with a T-21 on the Scottish. … I’m nervous about Spieth’s wrist, although for as unpredictable as he’s, he’s sixth in whole driving and loves this championship having not completed worse than T-23 in his previous 5 appearances. … Third among the many LIV guys in whole driving, Niemann was T-6 at LIV Andalucia to push his top-10 whole to double digits this yr. Simply want his Open file was higher (greatest end: T-53). … Not solely has Scott made 10 of 11 cuts, however he was second on the Scottish and gained over 4 photographs off the tee. … Runner-up at Vacationers and T-15 at Scottish bolster a robust ball-striker in Kim, who additionally was T-2 final yr at Royal Liverpool. … Theegala has not but discovered his groove at The Open, however he has made seven of his final eight main cuts and liked what I noticed throughout his T-4 at Scottish, particularly with the putter. … Thomas ought to completely have greater than only a T-11 to his Open resume, however he doesn’t. A T-62 on the Scottish doesn’t assist issues, both. That mentioned, he’s nonetheless eighth in strokes gained strategy and is exhibiting flashes of how he drove it to begin the yr. … One thing is off with Koepka proper now. He was T-27 on LIV on Sunday and hasn’t posted a serious top-25 this yr. He additionally has gone MC, T-64 in his final two Opens. One saving grace, although, is he’s nonetheless driving it effectively.
Nos. 11-20
20. Wyndham Clark
19. Min Woo Lee
18. Sungjae Im
17. Akshay Bhatia
16. Davis Thompson
15. Si Woo Kim
14. Tyrrell Hatton
13. Jon Rahm
12. Bryson DeChambeau
11. Tommy Fleetwood
Clark will probably be ignored based mostly on his main efficiency this yr (T-56 at U.S. Open adopted MCs at Masters, PGA), however he’s nonetheless prime 10 strokes gained off the tee, was T-33 ultimately yr’s Open and shot 62 Sunday to complete T-10 in Scotland. … Sunday was ugly (75), however I nonetheless consider in Min Woo and his stinger. He’s third in whole driving and leads the Tour in carry distance, which both means he’s carrying bunkers downwind or capable of nonetheless muscle a driving iron on the market below the gusts. … Im is rolling with a T-4 in Scotland following 4 showings of T-12 or higher in a five-start stretch. Driving it effectively. T-20 ultimately yr’s Open his solely made lower in final six main begins. He’s again … Bhatia has been trending onerous because the Memorial, most just lately sharing second in Detroit. He additionally was T-16 at Pinehurst for his first main top-20. Shall be his first Open, however prime 25 in whole driving and stroke gained strategy will assist mitigate that inexperience. … Thompson was T-46 on the Scottish after successful the Deere, although you’ve got to like the bookend 65s. Driver is beginning to get actually good, and he led Scottish discipline in strokes gained across the inexperienced. Maintain driving the wave. … Si Woo, my majors go-to, has posted T-32 or higher in 10 of his final 12 begins. High 25 in strokes gained off the tee, prime 15 on strategy, and he was T-15 at St. Andrews two years in the past. … Seven instances in his previous 10 main begins has Hatton completed T-27 or higher. He ended up one shot out of a playoff Sunday at Valderrama, too. … The foot factor appears corrected, although Rahm managed only a T-10 at LIV Andalucia. There’s mounting stress on Rahm to get again on the foremost saddle, too. Good factor is he’s nonetheless elite off the tee; he simply must get his swagger again in these main tournaments. … For as nice as DeChambeau has been, this hasn’t been his greatest occasion. In six begins, he’s acquired a T-8 at St. Andrews and nothing else inside the highest 30. He’ll nonetheless simply flirt with a top-10 as a result of he’s clearly on the prime of his sport proper now. … I assumed it will be final week, although Fleetwood cooled off a bit to complete T-34 on the Scottish. That snapped his streak of T-26 or higher at six begins. High 10 in whole driving; I like him to begin a brand new streak right here.
NORTH BERWICK, SCOTLAND – JULY 14: Rory McIlroy of Northern Eire acknowledges the gang on the 18th inexperienced following his spherical throughout day 4 of the Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Membership on July 14, 2024 in North Berwick, Scotland. (Photograph by Andrew Redington/Getty Photos)
Nos. 1-10
10. Cameron Younger
9. Corey Conners
8. Shane Lowry
7. Tony Finau
6. Xander Schauffele
5. Ludvig Aberg
4. Viktor Hovland
3. Scottie Scheffler
2. Collin Morikawa
1. Rory McIlroy
Younger adopted his runner-up at St. Andrews with a T-8 at Royal Liverpool. High 20 in whole driving, so it’s not all simply distance, and he’s trending (T-9 at Vacationers, T-6 at Rocket Mortgage). … Final yr at Royal Liverpool, Conners misplaced a couple of half-stroke per spherical on strategy; he’s not been detrimental since. Contemplating he’s third in strokes gained strategy getting into this week – and his T-10 on the Scottish was his third top-10 in his final 5 begins – Conners may very effectively notch his first profession Open top-10. … We’ve not seen Lowry because the Vacationers (T-9), he missed the lower in his final Open, nevertheless it’s about time for the 2019 Open champ to return to his type on this championship (he was T-12 two years in the past at St. Andrews as effectively). He’s prime 12 in whole driving and prime 10 in strokes gained strategy. The right top-10 sleeper within the mildew of Russ Henley at Pinehurst (T-7) or Alex Noren at Valhalla (T-12; simply missed). … Finau’s missed lower final yr at Royal Liverpool killed some good Open momentum (T-9, third, T-15, T-28), however he’s fourth in strokes gained strategy and has turned in three straight constructive placing weeks (all top-8 finishes, too). The driving force has been iffy, although if Large Tone is rolling in putts, be careful. … Schauffele is the Tour’s chief in three-putt avoidance exterior of 25 ft. Add that to his ball-striking means and the truth that he hasn’t completed exterior the highest 25 since Pebble and Schauffele most likely ought to be prime 3 right here. However he didn’t drive it nice on the Scottish, and his greatest Open end since his T-2 at Carnoustie is T-15. … The closing 73 for Åberg on the Scottish provides to some disappointing closing rounds for the younger Swede of late, none extra crushing than his 73 Sunday at Pinehurst. That pattern is a bit regarding, as is the detrimental strokes gained off the tee in each weekend rounds on the Renaissance Membership, however belief the physique of labor (seven top-10s; prime 5 in whole driving and ball-striking). … Hovland could have only one top-10 this yr (third at PGA), however he’s been flushing it currently and he’s by far one of the best lag putter of the elite gamers. A robust Open file (T-13 or higher in three begins) provides to confidence. … It’s onerous to not put Scheffler at No. 1, a place he’s been in for these rankings for every of the yr’s first three majors. He’s one of the best tee-to-green participant on the earth by far and he’s been T-23 or higher in three profession Open begins, however he additionally hasn’t performed since successful the Vacationers, and maybe the luck issue of this championship (very like Pinehurst and its native areas) will mess with the normally impenetrable Scheffler once more. … Morikawa misplaced strokes strategy Sunday at Scottish, simply the third time that’s occurred in a spherical because the begin of the PGA. He’s been ultra-consistent (4 top-4s in final six begins and no finishes exterior prime 25 since earlier than the Masters) and he’s going to seek out fairways, so if the iron play continues trending upward prefer it has been, a second Claret Jug is within the playing cards. … McIlroy’s tie for fourth at Scottish proves his U.S. Open heartbreak is within the rearview, so why not choose the Tour’s chief in whole driving who ranks solely behind Spieth in adjusted strokes gained at The Open amongst gamers within the discipline with greater than 12 profession rounds performed.
