The Grade 2, $500,000 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes Saturday at Truthful Grounds contains a discipline of 13 vying for vital Street to the Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve qualifying factors in addition to a $300,000 first prize.
Two of the horses more than likely to be favored by bettors are making their 2025 debuts, these being Jonathan’s Means and East Avenue. Jonathan’s Means gained the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes in September 2024 earlier than an unthreatening effort within the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Offered by TAA and a second-place end within the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes. East Avenue completed ninth within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after stumbling badly initially however gained the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity simply previous to that. 4 horses entered within the Risen Star final raced within the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on this monitor 4 weeks in the past, most notably runner-up Constructed, who was crushed by a neck. Magnitude was sixth within the Lecomte following a second-place effort within the Gun Runner Stakes in December when crushed by 6 ¾ lengths, that race gained by Constructed, with Render Judgment third and one other 2 ¾ lengths in arrears. Seattle Street (seventh) and Jolly Samurai (ninth) additionally hope to enhance off their efforts within the Lecomte. Chunk of Gold completed quick for second within the Leonatus Stakes final month in solely the second begin of his profession and may enhance, whereas Septarian hopes to do the identical off a third-place end within the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on Jan. 4. Then there’s American Promise, who broke final of 9 within the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes three weeks in the past earlier than speeding as much as second then tiring. Vassimo brings an ideal 2-for-2 file into the race, together with a 2 ¾-length win 4 weeks in the past in his first begin round two turns. Giocoso returns from three months away from the races, having gained a two-turn race on grass earlier than the remaining and with a third-place end behind Jonathan’s Means within the Iroquois previous to that. Vamos Carlitos gained a claiming race two begins again after which was second in an allowance race on this monitor 4 weeks in the past and rounds out the sphere.
High win contenders:
Having led from begin to end from the rail in incomes his first victory in late December, I’m 100% sure the plan was to ship American Promise to the entrance from post-position seven initially within the Southwest Stakes on Jan. 25 and play “come catch me” from that time onward. Nonetheless, to cite from Robert Burns, “The very best laid plans of mice and males typically go awry.” Such was the case when American Promise stood within the gate when it opened for lower than a second, however that was greater than sufficient time for him to lose any probability of utilizing the technique of main from the beginning. As a substitute, the colt moved up rapidly to be fifth after a quarter-mile then second after a half-mile, earlier than tiring considerably from the mis-expenditure of vitality. For the Risen Star, American Promise drew the rail, the identical as in his victory in December when he earned a really sturdy 102 Equibase Velocity Determine, increased than the 100 determine possible favourite Jonathan’s Means earned in successful the Iroquois Stakes final September and better than the 99 determine East Avenue earned successful the Breeders’ Futurity final October. Making the case that his effort within the Southwest may be ignored because of the dangerous begin, and that the hassle and discipline excessive 102 velocity determine one race earlier than which may be repeated, this implies American Promise is a powerful contender. Moreover, American Promise is out of the Tapit mare Tapella, who produced a number of stakes winner Hoosier Philly, who has earned greater than $950,000 to this point. The jockey change to Keith Asmussen doesn’t damage both, as he and Corridor of Fame coach D. Wayne Lukas teamed as much as win the Bugler Stakes at Oaklawn Park a number of weeks again and final 12 months they gained the Honeybee Stakes (a Street to the Kentucky Oaks race) with Lemon Muffin at odds of 28.10-1.
Constructed might have a slight edge over Jonathan’s Means and over East Avenue, as he ran 4 weeks in the past as in contrast with 11 weeks in the past for Jonathan’s Means and 15 weeks in the past for East Avenue. Constructed had returned from 11 weeks off on Dec. 21 to win the Gun Runner Stakes, incomes a career-best 95 Equibase Velocity Determine, then 4 weeks later within the Lecomte, Constructed rallied strongly from sixth to overlook by a neck on the end line, though his velocity determine regressed to 84. For the Risen Star, Constructed will get a jockey change to Luis Saez, and within the occasion American Promise can’t lead from begin to end, Constructed seems to have what it takes to go previous within the stretch for the win.
Other than attempting to win a two-turn race following 11 weeks off, Jonathan’s Means should be a powerful contender. He gained in his debut final August at six furlongs relatively simply with an 89 determine, then improved to a career-best 100 Equibase Velocity Determine when victorious within the Iroquois Stakes 4 weeks later. Following a poor effort when seventh within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile — although effectively backed at 5.80-1 odds — Jonathan’s Means closed out his freshman marketing campaign properly when rallying for second behind simple winner First Resort within the Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes to earn an 88 velocity determine. Coach Phil Bauer has actually gotten the colt into high form lately, with two glorious exercises at Truthful Grounds in preparation for this race. The primary of the 2 was one of the best of 40 on the distance of 5 furlongs and the newer was third better of 126 on the day at a half-mile. These counsel this gifted colt will put forth a high effort on this race, however contemplating the day off it nonetheless is probably not adequate to beat the highest two contenders.
Much like Jonathan’s Means, East Avenue gained in his debut, additionally a dash, with a 91 velocity determine, earlier than enhancing to a 99-figure effort successful the Breeders’ Futurity in October. The 9-5 favourite within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, East Avenue stumbled initially and misplaced all probability to fulfil the possible plan of main early within the race, by no means making any headway thereafter. Freshened since then, it seems very possible that this can be a prep race for the Louisiana Derby subsequent month, though definitely the connections need him to run effectively. On condition that East Avenue attracts the post-position 4 and American Promise will get the rail, it’s unlikely the directions given jockey Tyler Gaffalione will likely be to have interaction with American Promise within the early levels, however East Avenue might take up a stalking place and be an element to the end on this race.
The remainder of the sphere (with greatest consultant Equibase Velocity Determine): Chunk of Gold (91), Giocoso (98), Jolly Samurai (83), Magnitude (89), Render Judgment (86), Seattle Street (82), Septarian (86), Vamos Carlitos (86) and Vassimo (83).
Win Contenders, in choice order:
American Promise
Constructed
Jonathan’s Means
