Ever since Main League Baseball launched the primary drip of its bat monitoring information this spring, I’ve been maintaining a tally of a selected leaderboard. I don’t know if anyone else cares a lot about it, however I’ve been fascinated by the quick swing leaderboard. I haven’t been monitoring it religiously; I’ve simply been checking in each couple of weeks. Additionally, I haven’t been it the way in which you’re alleged to. I’m solely the underside of the checklist. I suppose that makes it not a lot a leaderboard as a trailerboard, however I don’t care. I’m taken with it as a result of there’s an honest-to-goodness horse race happening there.
A quick swing is one the place the barrel of the bat is touring not less than 75 mph when it strikes or comes closest to the ball. That quantity was chosen, per Mike Petriello, “as a result of that’s the road the place, on a per-swing foundation, a swing goes from destructive run worth for a hitter to common, on its strategy to constructive.” All issues being equal, it’s higher to swing exhausting. On a person participant foundation, right here’s the correlation between fast-swing charge and wRC+. Roughly talking, 5 share factors of fast-swing charge is value three further factors of wRC+:
Right here’s one thing that will shock you: Quick-swing charge (R = .48) has a stronger correlation to wRC+ than common bat velocity does (R = .41). I assume that that is the case for a similar cause that Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity is a extra helpful stat than common exit velocity. You’re ignoring an enormous chunk of much less helpful data and specializing in the swings that may end up in actual harm.
To be clear, there’s a sure type of bias baked into these numbers. It’s not simply that quick swings are higher, it’s that almost all gamers have to put themselves in good place to get off their greatest swing. The extra you must alter to the pitch since you didn’t time it up proper or as a result of it moved in a route you weren’t anticipating, the extra you must change your mechanics, which is able to drag down your bat velocity. Subsequently, gamers with higher pitch recognition, higher plate self-discipline, and extra adaptable swings will get off more durable swings extra usually. The best bat velocity recorded to this point is 88 mph, however 25 totally different gamers have hit not less than 87.7 mph, and 67 totally different gamers have hit not less than 87.0. In different phrases, numerous gamers are able to hitting the ball as exhausting as Aaron Decide or Shohei Ohtani. The true differentiator is their capability to get to that energy regularly.
The underside of the checklist works in a similar way. There are many gamers who not often swing exhausting, however they’ve totally different causes for it. Few of the gamers on the very backside of the quick swing leaderboard have the capability to swing as exhausting as Oneil Cruz. Nonetheless, some are deliberately taking shorter, softer cuts as a result of they’re prioritizing strong contact, whereas some (I’m so sorry, Charlie Blackmon) appear to be swinging softly as a result of they only can’t put themselves in a great place to drive the ball. At this time, we’re within the two gamers who greatest exemplify the soft-swing-to-celebration pipeline: Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan.
I’ve been checking the underside of the quick swing leaderboard for one cause: For many of the season, neither Arraez nor Kwan had registered a single quick swing. They have been at 0.0%. They have been the one certified gamers with double zeroes, and I used to be rooting exhausting for them to make it by the entire season that approach. By means of July 9, Kwan was working a 172 wRC+, fifth greatest in baseball, whereas Arraez was at 104. The leaderboard was lovely and it seemed like this:
Alas, nothing gold can keep. On July 10, Arraez noticed a juicy 96.5-mph four-seamer from Bryce Miller proper over the center of the plate. The Crown Prince of Cromulent Contact lastly caved to his internal caveman, unleashing a 77.1-mph swing that resulted in a 97.9-mph bullet — proper to second base for a simple groundout:
And similar to that, it was a one-horse race. Regardless of coming from nowhere to slug .512 within the first half, Kwan stood alone as the one certified participant in baseball who hadn’t registered a single quick swing all season. Perhaps that strain was an excessive amount of for him, as a result of he solely lasted one other 13 days earlier than becoming a member of Arraez. (Extra probably, Kwan was merely urgent, as he was at that time mired in one of many worst slumps of his quick profession.) Like Arraez, Kwan yanked a innocent grounder to the best aspect of the infield. Not like Arraez, he didn’t even make nice contact, sending a Shelby Miller splitter on the backside of the zone to first base with a 76.5-mph swing:
Somewhat over two weeks later, Kwan lapsed once more, however not less than this time he acquired his cash’s value. Simeon Woods Richardson put a particularly hittable four-seamer belt excessive and proper over the center, and Kwan acknowledged the providing with the bare-minimum quick swing, a 75-mph minimize that despatched the ball 396 toes into the best subject bleachers:
Though that was the quickest tracked swing of Kwan’s season, it solely ranked twentieth by way of exit velocity. That’s one of many tips that each of those gamers possess. They’re so good at squaring the ball up that they don’t essentially have to swing exhausting. Again when bat monitoring information got here out, the components for figuring out precisely how squared-up any batted ball is was launched as nicely. It’s a easy share primarily based on the velocity of the pitch and the velocity of the bat. It seems like this:
Squared-Up Proportion = EV / ((Bat Velocity x 1.23) + (0.2116 x Pitch Velocity))
Utilizing that components, let me hit you with a trick query: Each time Participant A swings, they’ve a bat velocity of 65 mph, they usually sq. the ball up at 90%. Each time Participant B swings, they’ve a bat velocity of 65 mph, they usually sq. the ball up at 80%. Who hits the ball more durable?
I advised you this was a trick query. They’re practically an identical. Participant A hits the ball 91.0 mph, whereas Participant B hits it 90.7 mph. Remember the fact that the squared-up cutoff is 80%. Remember the fact that a mean bat velocity of 75 would put you close to the highest of the league and 65 mph would put you close to the very backside. Each single time, Participant B is squaring the ball up and swinging with the bat velocity of the common dwelling run, however they’re nonetheless a hair under Participant A. Kwan and Arraez are by no means going to problem for the league lead in exit velocity, however they sq. the ball up each usually and nicely.
I’d like to finish on one thing that’s positively not statistically vital, so don’t take it too critically, however I nonetheless assume it’s fairly fascinating. Originally of this text, I discussed that 75 mph is the cutoff for a quick swing as a result of, on common, that’s the place swings begin to accrue constructive run worth. It takes a humongous pattern, like entire-league humongous, to make these numbers statistically vital. On a person participant foundation, any correlation you discover can be tiny, however I made a decision to have a look at each tracked swing this season from each Arraez and Kwan, after which calculate the correlation coefficients between their bat velocity and run worth. For Arraez, there was virtually no correlation in any way (R = .01) between bat velocity and run worth. Even should you restrict the pattern to balls in play, the correlation solely will increase to .02. For Kwan, the correlation continues to be a particularly weak .06, nevertheless it not less than appears to exist. Out of curiosity, I ran the numbers for Aaron Decide, and located a correlation of .09, going as much as .13 should you look solely at balls in play. For Decide, more durable swings are inclined to see higher outcomes. For Kwan, and to a stunning extent for Arraez, the 2 are a lot much less associated. Since they don’t essentially have to swing exhausting to carry out nicely on the plate, perhaps it’s time they deal with what’s most vital. Proper now Arraez is forward 1-to-2 within the Exhausting Swing Avoidance Sweepstakes. He’s acquired simply over a month to defend that lead.
