Everybody has their very own desire, however for my part the Breeders’ Cup Mile is basically the proper horse race.
I’ve all the time been keen on betting turf races and one mile on the grass is a terrific check of each velocity and stamina. Add in the truth that the $2 million FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Introduced by PDJF attracts elite worldwide turf milers in addition to high North American runners and the likelihood for an upset – 5 $50 winners on this race within the final 25 years – and it’s simple to see why the race is a spotlight every year on the World Championships. Oh yeah, 17 of the final 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile have been determined by a size or much less and solely two have been determined by two lengths or extra.
Merely put, the Breeders’ Cup Mile usually is a superb handicapping puzzle and the race itself not often fails to dwell as much as the hype.
For followers like me who love this race, for devoted handicappers planning to wager all 14 World Championships races, and informal followers planning to observe and perhaps wager a couple of bucks on it, there are vital tendencies to know when analyzing the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
Let’s take a better have a look at the information from 1999 via 2023 and determine as many historic nuggets as attainable to assist decide the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Nov. 2 at Del Mar.
Keep away from velocity
During the last 25 years, not a single Breeders’ Cup Mile winner was in first after the opening quarter-mile or the primary half-mile within the race. In reality, solely two of the 25 have been first in early stretch (roughly an eighth of a mile to run). There have been 10 runners in second place in early stretch, however pacesetters nonetheless are up in opposition to historical past within the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
Eight of the 25 winners since 1999 have been devoted one-run closers and one other 5 profiled as nearer/stalker varieties. The lone horse with an actual inclination to press for the lead was World Approval, who was 4-for-5 coming into the race in 2017 and received by 1 ¼ lengths as the favourite.
Ten of the final 25 winners have been 10th or worse after the primary quarter-mile and 24 winners have been third or worse after a half-mile.
Depend on class
Sixteen of the 25 Breeders’ Cup Mile winners from 1999 to 2023 have been established Grade/Group 1 winners and 15 of the final 17 had a minimum of one win at that high stage. Twenty-four of the 25 had received on the Grade/Group 2 stage or increased with 73.20-1 longshot Order of Australia in 2020 at Keeneland the lone exception.
Look past last-out winners
For a lot of Breeders’ Cup races, current type is unequivocally crucial standards in figuring out the winner. For the Mile, as talked about above, established again class is extra vital than current type.
Solely seven of the final 20 Breeders’ Cup Mile winners prevailed of their ultimate prep race and solely 12 of the 25 winners from 1999 to 2023 entered the race off of a win. 9 others entered off top-three finishes, together with six who have been overwhelmed by a size or much less, however 4 of the 25 have been unplaced of their ultimate prep race and three winners have been seventh or worse of their most up-to-date race.
Be a little bit extra forgiving of a disappointing prep race when evaluating the Mile.
True milers race
The common distance raced by Breeders’ Cup Mile winners from 1999 to 2023 within the calendar yr main as much as the World Championships is 8.25 furlongs, between one mile and 1 1/16 miles. The median is strictly the identical.
Just one winner within the final 25 years raced a median distance longer than 8.8 furlongs and that was 73.2-1 longshot winner Order of Australia in 2020, additionally the lone horse with out a minimum of a Grade or Group 2 win.
Likewise, just one winner raced a median of lower than 7.5 furlongs during the last 25 years, so search for true milers and never turf sprinters stretching out to a mile or longer-distance grass horses chopping again to a mile.
Worldwide occasion
Ten of the final 25 winners prepped for the Breeders’ Cup Mile in Europe and one other three made their ultimate pre-Breeders’ Cup begin in Canada. 5 of the final six winners have been based mostly in Europe.
Seven Mile winners made their ultimate prep in Kentucky – 5 within the Coolmore Turf Mile and two within the First Girl Stakes, each at Keeneland. The latest winner of this race to come back out of a New York prep race was Artie Schiller in 2005. Likewise, the final Mile winner to come back out of a California prep race was Singletary in 2004, though California preps produced 4 Breeders’ Cup Mile winners in a six-year span from 1999 to 2004.
Of the seven 3-year-old winners during the last 25 editions, solely Battle Chant in 2000 was not based mostly in Europe, so give desire to worldwide 3-year-olds over these based mostly within the U.S.
Uncovering longshots
I’d not think about the Breeders’ Cup Mile to be a real longshots’ race regardless of the typical successful payoff of 12.5-1 during the last 25 years. That was skewed by $148.40 winner Order of Australia in 2020. The media successful odds of 5.1-1 are much more consultant of a race during which 11 of the final 25 winners have been 3.6-1 odds – barely greater than 7-2 – or much less.
There have been, nonetheless, seven double-digit winners since 1999, together with 5 that paid $50 or extra for a $2 win wager.
Six of the seven entered the race off a defeat with solely 26-1 European 4-year-old Domedriver coming into the 2002 Mile off of a Group 2 win in France. Order of Australia was the lone member of this group with nary a Grade/Group 2 win on his résumé, having solely received on the allowance stage for elite European coach Aidan O’Brien.
Singletary (16.5-1 odds, 2004), Miesque’s Approval (24.3-1, 2006), Courtroom Imaginative and prescient (64.8-1, 2011), and Vacationer (12.4-1, 2016) have been U.S.-based runners who most well-liked to race off the tempo and entered the Breeders’ Cup Mile off third-, fourth-, seventh-, and third-place finishes, respectively. The primary two have been Grade 2 winners and Courtroom Imaginative and prescient and Vacationer have been Grade 1 winners.
French invader Domedriver profiled as a deep nearer with an electrical flip of foot and Karakontie (30-1, 2014) was a French traditional winner at one mile who had fallen off type whereas attempting to stretch out in distance.
4 of the seven have been devoted closers with the opposite three becoming into a better/stalker or stalker profile, and all have been a minimum of 2 ½ lengths again after the opening half-mile.
These winners function a reminder to offer an extended have a look at all the worldwide runners, together with the 3-year-olds, and at U.S.-based runners with again class popping out of disappointing races.
The 2024 candidates
Not like the primary two races on this historic sequence – the FanDuel Juvenile Introduced by TAA and the Longines Basic – the sphere for the Breeders’ Cup Mile is way more in flux. With out a agency grasp of which runners will probably be competing, let’s have a look at a number of main contenders and a few potential upset candidates.
The highest home contender is Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes winner Carl Spackler. He received that race in front-running style however has wins from off the tempo at each the Grade 1 and Grade 2 stage. The 4-year-old by Lope de Vega jogs my memory a little bit of World Approval, a miler getting excellent on the good time, however I fear he is perhaps too near the tempo and have little left in deep stretch to carry off a high quality group of closers. He is perhaps a greater wager to fill out the exacta or trifecta.
California-based Grade 1 winner Johannes is 4-for-4 this yr with a dominant win on the Del Mar turf in July within the Eddie Learn Stakes. The stalker/nearer can also be 4-for-4 at this one-mile distance, however prepping in California has not been fruitful for this race within the final 25 years.
4-year-old filly Gina Romantica received the Grade 1 First Girl Stakes Introduced by UK Healthcare for the second straight yr Oct. 5 at Keeneland. Six fillies have received the Mile within the final 25 years and Gina Romantica was removed from outclassed final yr within the Mile when closing for fourth, overwhelmed by a size, at Santa Anita.
An attention-grabbing upset candidate is perhaps Rogers Woodbine Mile Stakes winner Win for the Cash if he’s ignored coming off his first graded stakes win for Corridor of Fame coach Mark Casse.
Extra Than Appears to be like closed with a strong rush from far again within the Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes to complete second to Carl Spackler, however he has not received a race above Grade 3. A number of different proficient U.S.-based horses that desire to race on or close to the lead that I’d most likely keep away from within the Breeders’ Cup Mile ought to they compete within the race embrace Del Mar Mile Stakes winner Conclude, Woodbine Mile runner-up Filo Di Arianna, E.P. Taylor Stakes winner Full Depend Felicia, and Mint Thousands and thousands Stakes winner Goliad.
The worldwide contingent might be fairly robust this yr. Charles Appleby has been a pressure within the U.S. in recent times — he has received the final three editions of this race and sports activities a glowing document of 10 wins with 20 complete starters on the Breeders’ Cup — so his Group 1-winning miler Notable Speech a lot be revered. Three-year-old filly Porta Fortuna has received three straight Group 1 races at a mile, defeating older females within the final two. Six Perfections in 2003 and Goldikova in 2008 shipped over from Europe to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile as 3-year-old fillies and have been comparable mid-pack sort runners.
Ramatuelle, by Justify, is also a European 3-year-old filly who received a seven-furlong Group 1 race in France in October and completed third by a neck within the QIPCO One Thousand Guineas earlier this yr. Porta Fortuna has gotten the higher of her on a few events, however she is a cultured filly.
Ten Completely satisfied Rose is a Japanese Group 1 winner at a mile and is perhaps a bit ignored after prepping for this race with a seventh-place end in a turf dash in her first race in 4 months. One other attainable contender from Japan is Geoglyph, a Group 1 winner at 3 who has not received a race since 2022 however confirmed some indicators of life in his most up-to-date begin. He must be an enormous worth.
Aidan O’Brien’s Diego Velazquez enters off a Group 2 win at a mile, whereas that coach’s Mountain Bear made the journey to the U.S. for the Coolmore Turf Mile and rallied for third behind Carl Spackler and Extra Than Appears to be like. Each could be high quality contenders however I desire different worldwide runners except I used to be getting vital worth on the toteboard.
A few further intriguing longshots from among the many worldwide possibles are Prague, winner of a Group 2 race at Newmarket going a mile in his fifth profession begin; and Rogue Millennium, a Group 2 winner in 2023 with a number of Group 1 placings this yr for coach Joseph O’Brien.
