Showdown on the Shed: Previewing the 2024 Residence Run Derby

For individuals who benefit from the loudest, easiest, most dopamine-drenched type of baseball, right this moment is a big day. It’s Derby day, and even higher, the foolish hats will not be obligatory. The MLB Residence Run Derby takes place at 8:00 p.m. ET at Globe Life Discipline in Arlington, Texas. What the Costco-coded ballpark lacks in aesthetics it makes up for in bulk. In keeping with Statcast’s park components, Globe Life yields extra dwelling runs than the typical park each for righties (120) and for lefties (110), so we needs to be in for a present. You possibly can watch on ESPN, however for those who’re a nerd – and also you’re studying FanGraphs proper now, so I’m certain you are able to do the mathematics on this one – you’ll in all probability want the Statcast broadcast over on ESPN 2.

As in any yr, there’s a laundry record of Derby-worthy gamers who received’t be taking part, with Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Decide, and Elly De La Cruz on the prime. Nonetheless, this a stable sampling of swatters, and practically each participant figures to have a legit shot at successful. Both we’ll have a first-time winner or Pete Alonso will take dwelling his record-tying third title.

The sphere options three of the highest six dwelling run hitters in baseball this season — Gunnar Henderson, Marcell Ozuna, and José Ramírez — and two of the sport’s brightest younger shortstops: AL MVP candidates Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr.. It additionally contains three sluggers who take the Derby far more significantly than your common participant — Alonso, Henderson, and Teoscar Hernández — and two others who’ve received derbies at decrease ranges: Witt and Alec Bohm. Lastly, there’s Adolis García, an electrifying slugger whose historic energy show in the course of the Rangers’ World Collection run final season is bound to maintain the gang at full throat. Within the sections beneath, I’ll break down all the brand new guidelines and I’ll attempt to make a case for why every candidate has a shot on the crown.

Rule Adjustments

In recent times, the complete Derby has taken the type of a single-elimination match, with the eight individuals seeded based mostly on their common season dwelling run totals. This yr, the primary spherical might be huge open. All eight gamers will hit as many dwelling runs as they’ll, and the 4 gamers with the best totals will advance right into a four-person bracket. They’ll be seeded based mostly on these totals, with the gap of their longest dwelling run serving as a tiebreaker.

On the one hand, this can probably make the competitors slightly bit extra honest. Final yr, Adley Rutschman hit 27 dwelling runs within the first spherical. That was the third-highest complete of the spherical, however he failed to maneuver on as a result of he had the dangerous luck to be going through off towards Luis Robert Jr., who hit 28. However, this variation makes the Derby far more of an endurance contest. Swinging for the fences repeatedly is tiring work. In earlier years, for those who have been batting second, all you wanted to do was homer as soon as greater than your opponent, after which you would save your power for the later rounds. That choice is now gone. Everybody must max out their first-round complete, so we must always in all probability anticipate some sweaty, sluggish sluggers by the point we get to the ultimate. Conditioning might be key.

In case your favourite factor in regards to the Residence Run Derby is the byzantine guidelines, you’re in for a deal with as a result of we’re simply getting began. This yr, the timing of every spherical stays the identical: Batters get three minutes within the first two rounds and two minutes within the remaining spherical, with one 45-second timeout per spherical. Nonetheless, you would possibly recall that in earlier years, the system required the pitcher to attend till the final ball had landed earlier than pitching, at the least in principle. In apply, some pitchers flouted that rule, and consequently, their hitters noticed far more pitches than did their opponents. So as to curb that apply (which whereas undeniably unfair was additionally extraordinarily enjoyable), the foundations now embrace a most variety of pitches per spherical: 40 within the first two rounds and 27 within the remaining spherical, which works out to 4.5 seconds per pitch. For those who run out of pitches, then the spherical is over, even when there’s nonetheless time on the clock. Remember, that’s a most variety of pitches, not swings. That might make the command of the pitcher, already an enormous issue, much more necessary. In recent times, if batters didn’t like a pitch, they may take it and their pitcher would fireplace one other one straight away. There wasn’t a lot of a time penalty, as a result of they didn’t have to attend for the earlier pitch to land. On this new format, if the pitcher misses their batter’s nitro zone, it makes lots much less sense for the batter to take the pitch and look forward to the following one, as a result of they solely get so many treasured balls.

The bonus system has additionally modified fully. This yr, every participant concludes every spherical with an untimed bonus spherical by which they’ll hit till they report three outs. In the event that they hit a ball at the least 425 toes throughout the bonus, then they earn a fourth out. In different phrases, batters might get locked in and launch a bunch of homers in a row in the course of the bonus and pile onto their totals for the spherical, and due to the additional out, those that hit one particularly lengthy blast in the course of the bonus would have an excellent better benefit.

If there’s a tie within the head-to-head rounds after the bonus, then each gamers get a 60-second swing-off with no extra bonuses or timeouts. In the event that they’re nonetheless tied after the swing-off, then they every get one other swing-off that consists of simply three swings. If it’s nonetheless tied after that, they do the entire three-swing enterprise once more till there’s a winner or till the solar swallows the earth, whichever occurs first.

OK, that’s it. These are the entire guidelines, I swear. Let’s transfer on to the individuals. Though the gamers are not seeded, we’ll nonetheless talk about them within the order of their dwelling run totals.

Gunnar Henderson

Henderson turned 23 on June 29, so he has the prospect to turn into the youngest champion in Derby historical past. As a second-year participant who received’t be eligible for arbitration till 2026, the million-dollar prize for first place would greater than double his wage, and the $750,000 runner-up prize would very practically double it as nicely. Primarily based on his efficiency this season, he additionally has a powerful case as the favourite. His 28 homers rank third in baseball behind Decide and Ohtani, and his 56.7% hard-hit price ranks fourth amongst certified gamers behind these two and Juan Soto. Henderson additionally leads the Derby individuals with a median bat pace of 75.8 mph (which can also be good for ninth in all of baseball). Not that it’s notably related to the Derby, however Henderson is second within the majors with 6.1 WAR, only a hair behind Decide (6.3).

Henderson can also be actually invested within the Derby. On Thursday, he held a legit apply session at Oriole Park, timed by teammate Colton Cowser and pitched by his Derby pitcher, Norfolk Tides supervisor Buck Britton. “I’ve hit his BP nicely,” Henderson advised reporters when requested why he selected Britton to pitch to him. “He throws good BP and it’s a reasonably simple movement.” Nonetheless, Britton famous a possible challenge with Henderson’s strategy. “Hopefully these balls simply recover from the wall,” stated Britton. “He hits the ball so arduous, however he hits it at actually low angles, so simply getting the ball within the air” might be key. Henderson is fourth in baseball with 112 blasts, however simply 31 of these blasts have come on fly balls, which sends him right down to twelfth place and third amongst Derby individuals, behind Ozuna (43) and Hernández (32). When Henderson does put the ball within the air, he’s golden. His 31.1% HR/FB price is the perfect in baseball. However earlier than you get too involved about Henderson’s launch angle, look no additional than the final two winners. Henderson’s 46.9% groundball price is decrease than the 48.2% price that Soto ran within the first half of 2022, the yr he received the Derby, and the 49.8% price that reigning champ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. put up within the first half of final season.

Marcell Ozuna

There’s no getting round this: Ozuna was a horrible option to characterize Main League Baseball in such a celebratory occasion. In 2021, he was arrested for a home violence incident, a part of which was captured on physique cam footage. The expenses have been dropped when Ozuna agreed to take part in a pretrial diversion program. He was additionally arrested for driving below the affect in 2022 and pleaded no contest in 2023. It’s not as if there’s any standards for the Derby that compelled MLB to place Ozuna entrance and heart; his All-Star choice serves as its personal acknowledgement of the very sturdy season he’s having. So inviting him to take part within the Derby, the league’s most fan-oriented and family-friendly night time of the yr, is an lively selection, one which sends a really clear message in regards to the league’s values. Ozuna has hit 26 dwelling runs this season.

José Ramírez

Because the begin of the 2016 season, Ramírez has put up 46.5 WAR, fifth in baseball. However don’t let the truth that he’s one of many recreation’s best all-around gamers obscure his energy. Because the begin of the 2017 season, Ramírez has hit 220 dwelling runs, sixth most in baseball. Additionally, don’t sleep on Ramírez tonight simply based mostly on how he carried out in his first Derby look, in 2022, when he batted right-handed due to a serious thumb damage that fully sapped his energy. This yr, he’s anticipated to bat left-handed, and the facility is again. This season he’s tied for sixth in baseball with 23 dwelling runs. Ramírez’s common homer this season travels 388 toes, the shortest distance among the many group, however that shouldn’t essentially be held towards him. It’s a results of his deal with pulling balls on the air, a wonderful recipe for achievement and one thing he does extra incessantly than another participant. Likewise, though Ramírez has the bottom Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity of the group, at 103.9 mph, he can dial issues up when he needs to. His hardest-hit ball of the yr was 116.6 mph, which trails solely Witt among the many group and ranks twelfth in all of baseball.

The fascinating factor is that it’d truly make extra sense for Ramírez to bat right-handed tonight, and never simply because righties have a better time leaving the yard at Globe Life. Over the course of his profession, 69% of his homers have come from the left facet, however that’s largely as a result of he faces far more righty pitchers than lefties, that means he bats left-handed way more incessantly than he does righty. His energy output on a price foundation is about the identical from each side; throughout his profession, he’s homered in 4.1% of his plate appearances when he bats left-handed in addition to when he hits righty, and both sides’s HR/FB ratio is almost an identical, too. That stated, he positively has the potential for extra energy from the proper facet. His exit velocity, barrel price, and hard-hit price are decrease from the left facet this season and over the course of his profession. With the introduction of bat monitoring information, I can let you know that this season, his bat pace averages 74.2 mph from the proper facet, practically 4 mph quicker than his 70.3 mark from the left facet. In keeping with Mike Petriello, who might be calling the Derby on ESPN 2 tonight, “on balls hit within the air, each 1 mph of bat pace earns you roughly six extra toes of distance.” That’s a distinction of practically 24 toes.

Teoscar Hernández

Contemplating he has by no means completed a season with greater than 32 dwelling runs — in 2021, his solely 30-homer marketing campaign — Hernández could be simple to miss, however he’s a powerful darkish horse candidate. The 31-year-old has been one of many recreation’s most constant energy hitters ever since he grew to become a big-league common in 2018. If we ignore the 2020 season, when Hernández managed 16 homers in simply 50 video games, then he’s hit at the least 25 homers in every of the final 4 seasons, and at the least 20 in every of the final 5. He might not lead this yr’s eight individuals in anybody class, however since 2018, he’s by no means as soon as completed a season beneath the eightieth percentile in barrel price, common exit velocity, or max exit velocity.

Maybe much more necessary than his credentials is the truth that Hernández actually needs to win. He brazenly campaigned to be included, and as soon as he was chosen, he sought recommendation from Guerrero Jr., a two-time Derby contestant who received final yr’s match, and Ohtani, his Dodgers teammate who participated within the 2021 Derby. The 2 warned him in regards to the impact that fatigue can play, and Hernández has stated that he’ll deal with lifting the ball moderately than tiring himself out with max-effort hacks. “I feel I’ve slightly little bit of a bonus as a result of I swing lots,” Hernández stated. “I take a whole lot of swings on daily basis. My physique is used to going swing, swing, swing with out getting relaxation.”

Hernández has held two timed apply classes along with his Derby pitcher, Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel, whose son Brady simply participated within the Excessive College Residence Run Derby this weekend. Anybody who’s watched the Derby commonly is aware of that the pitcher makes an enormous distinction, and in Ebel, Hernández may need one thing of a secret weapon. This might be his fourth Derby pitching look on the big-league stage, and he additionally pitched in two minor league derbies. He helped Vladimir Guerrero win the 2007 Derby, then pitched to Albert Pujols in 2015 and Joc Pederson in 2019.

Pete Alonso

Alonso has been in a funk these days; he has simply two dwelling runs this month, and over his final 12 video games, he’s batting .196 with no extra-base hits and a 41 wRC+. However don’t child your self: Alonso is a prolific dwelling run hitter. Because the begin of the 2019 season, when he was named NL Rookie of the Yr after main the majors with 53 homers, Alonso has clobbered 211 dwelling runs, probably the most in all of baseball. He’s performed in solely 4 full seasons, and he’s already one in all simply 48 gamers in main league historical past with at the least three seasons of 40 or extra homers. The 6-foot-3, 245-pound Polar Bear can also be proficient at crushing Derby dingers. He received back-to-back titles in 2019 and 2021 and has participated in each subsequent Derby. A 3rd victory would tie Ken Griffey Jr. for the report, although he’ll want to look in three extra after this one if he needs to tie Junior’s report of eight appearances. Alonso has requested former Mets bench coach Dave Jauss, who pitched to him in 2021 and 2022, to come back again and pitch once more after final yr’s first-round exit.

This season, Alonso’s common exit velocity has fallen all the way in which right down to the thirty fifth percentile, however he can nonetheless bash the ball when he will get maintain of it. His most exit velocity has by no means dropped beneath the 97th percentile, and his 75.1-mph bat pace is second solely to Henderson amongst Derby individuals. Crucially, Alonso doesn’t have to elevate the ball to hit it out. This season, 9.4% of his line drives have left the ballpark. That ranks second amongst all gamers who’ve hit at the least 25 line drives, and it’s greater than twice the speed of six of his seven Derby opponents. Alonso additionally boasts the hardest-hit dwelling run of all eight individuals, a 115.3-mph blast on Could 16.

Adolis García

García is without doubt one of the most enjoyable gamers in baseball, however he’s presently sitting on -0.1 WAR for the season. However even in a replacement-level yr, his energy numbers are nonetheless formidable. His hard-hit price, barrel price, common exit velocity, and Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity, whereas down from final yr, nonetheless rank within the 83th percentile or larger. Furthermore, García clearly nonetheless has top-level energy, as he hit the toughest ball of his complete profession, a scorching 116.1-mph line drive double, again in Could.

For just a few causes, García needs to be a favourite. First, he’s received Derby expertise. Though he crashed out of final yr’s first spherical with 17 homers, the second-lowest complete of all eight individuals, he was pacing for a terrific spherical till he fell right into a funk and he hit simply two dwelling runs over the ultimate minute. The following issue can’t be overstated: García excels below the brilliant lights. He launched 39 dwelling runs final season, after which added eight extra within the playoffs, together with a five-game homer streak that stretched from the ALCS to the World Collection. In entrance of a house crowd that’s sure to be going loopy for him, García might be giving it his all, and his all is a complete lot. For those who watched the Fall Traditional, you recognize that when García needs to hit one out of the ballpark, he’s received simply in regards to the fiercest dwelling run hack within the recreation. Regardless of how he fares, García is bound to placed on a present.

Bobby Witt Jr.

This can be Bobby Witt Jr.’s first MLB Residence Run Derby, but it surely’s not precisely his first rodeo. In 2018, Witt received the Excessive College Residence Run Derby at Nationals Park, out-dueling Rece Hinds – sure, the identical Rece Hinds who has executed nothing however crush monster dwelling runs throughout his first week as an enormous leaguer – within the remaining spherical. In a contest just like the Derby, it is sensible to take a look at how gamers do after they’re served up pitches proper down the center, and each Witt’s 71.7% hard-hit price and 99.6-mph exit velocity on these meatballs lead the eight individuals by far.

Witt’s Statcast sliders are pink sufficient to make a vampire salivate, and he tops all individuals in barrels and Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity. This season, his common dwelling run has traveled 418 toes. Nobody else within the Derby has a median above 410. Witt can also be the one participant to hit a homer greater than 450 toes this season, and he did it twice. In brief, there’s nobody within the Derby who can hit the ball tougher than Witt.

Don’t let Witt’s placement this far down on the record idiot you. Though his 16 homers are the second-lowest complete amongst individuals, Statcast credit him with 21.2 anticipated homers, fourth most. That hole of 5.2 homers is the biggest in baseball. Not solely is Witt the sort of all-around athlete you shouldn’t wager towards in any sort of abilities competitors, he’s additionally coming into the Derby with a full head of steam. Over the previous two weeks, he’s batting .409 with 4 homers and a 215 wRC+.

Alec Bohm

Bohm is the plain underdog. With a 130 wRC+, the 27-year-old is having a breakout season. However whilst he’s added a tick of exit velocity and practically 4 share factors to his hard-hit price, he’s hardly a house run hitter. His 11 lengthy balls put him in a 16-way tie for the 89th-highest complete in baseball, and he’s the one Derby participant who isn’t on tempo to achieve the 20-homer threshold. Bohm has hit only one ball lengthy sufficient to earn a bonus this season, a 427-foot shot on June 30. Nonetheless, earlier than you conclude that Bohm doesn’t have a snowball’s likelihood in Arlington to win this factor, understand that not one of the final three Derby winners was seeded higher than fourth.

Additionally, Bohm has received a derby earlier than. In 2016, he received the derby of the Coastal Plain League, a wood-bat collegiate summer season league. Scott Wingo, who coached Bohm’s Wilmington Sharks and pitched to him in that derby, will pitch to him once more tonight. It’s additionally attainable that Bohm may gain advantage from the brand new guidelines. In a Derby the place taking a pitch comes with the next penalty, the flexibility to drive something you see might matter extra. Consistency has at all times been an underrated a part of success within the Derby, and no participant comes near squaring up the ball as typically as does Bohm. On a per-swing foundation, he ranks seventh amongst all certified gamers in hard-hit price, ninth in squared-up price, and eleventh in blast price. If he can get in a groove, he might have an opportunity.

Who’s Going to Win

For those who’ve learn Jay Jaffe’s previews in earlier years, you recognize that Jay closes with a prediction. Much more annoyingly for me, he’s very often proper. Jay predicted Bryce Harper’s 2018 win, Alonso’s in 2019, and Vladito’s simply final yr. I can’t promise Jay’s stage of accuracy, and I genuinely consider that the sphere is huge open, however my intestine tells me to go along with Bobby Witt Jr. I say that not simply because he’s able to placing on a present when he’s locked in, however as a result of he’s such a bodily marvel that even when he’s not locked in, he’s received sufficient energy to push him by means of. I now look ahead to watching Witt flame out within the first spherical.