Seven Tendencies to Contemplate When Betting the 2024 Travers Stakes

One of the crucial necessary races held in america annually is the $1.25 million, Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. The 1 1/4-mile “Mid-Summer time Derby” often attracts a few of the finest 3-year-old Thoroughbreds from round america, and the 2024 version — arising this Saturday — is not any exception.

Handicapping the Travers isn’t all the time simple, as a result of the depth of a typical subject means there are a lot of viable win contenders. Luckily, an evaluation of the latest historical past of the Travers since 2010 reveals a number of useful tendencies that can be utilized to separate the contenders and establish the more than likely winner.

The next seven tips set up one horse because the runner to beat within the 2024 Travers.

Keep away from Betting Deep Closers

The Travers doesn’t strongly favor any specific operating type. Since 2010, we’ve seen a few front-running winners, together with eight winners who raced second, third, or fourth after half a mile and 5 winners who rallied from exterior the highest 4.

That’s numerous selection, but it surely’s price noting deep-closing Travers winners are unusual. Just one winner since 2010 has rallied from greater than 5 lengths off the lead after half a mile, and through the identical timeframe not a single Travers winner raced in final place or next-to-last place after half a mile.

Give an edge to Triple Crown veterans

Whereas it’s not exceptional for up-and-comers to win the Travers, 9 of the final 15 winners competed in a number of legs of the Triple Crown. Horses gifted sufficient to begin within the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve, Grade 1 Preakness Stakes, and/or the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes throughout the spring are sometimes the runners to beat come Travers time.

Play In opposition to Haskell Alumni

One of the crucial necessary races for 3-year-olds held every summer time is the Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park, however the Haskell hardly ever produces Travers winners. The final Travers champ to exit the Haskell was Eager Ice (2015), and the final horse to win each races was Level Given (2001).

New York Runners Have an Benefit

The Travers takes place in New York, and horses exiting races in New York generally nab first prize. To be particular, 11 of the final 15 Travers winners (73%) prepped with a race in New York, as did 25 of the final 42 trifecta finishers (59.5%). It’s not unusual for New York horses to run 1-2-3 within the Travers.

Considered one of New York’s most necessary Travers prep races is the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Introduced by Mohegan Solar at Saratoga. Six of the final 15 Travers winners exited the Jim Dandy, together with 4 horses (Keep Thirsty, Alpha, Important High quality, and Epicenter) who gained each races.

Javier Castellano is the Dominant Jockey

Corridor of Fame jockey Javier Castellano has gained extra editions of the Travers than another rider. His seven wins have come aboard Bernardini (2006), Afleet Categorical (2010), Keep Thirsty (2011), V. E. Day (2014), Eager Ice (2015), Catholic Boy (2018), and Arcangelo (2023). 4 of Castellano’s wins got here aboard longshots beginning at odds between 7-1 and 19.50-1.

Final-out Winners Are Formidable

Horses getting into off victories have the most effective probability to shine within the Travers. The final eight Travers winners (and 11 of the final 15) gained their earlier begin.

Moreover, the 4 horses who defied this pattern completed second or third of their prep race, with three of them exiting graded stakes. For those who’re going to attempt to beat the last-out winners angle, don’t go for a horse who completed out of the highest three of their closing begin earlier than the Travers.

Favor Progeny of Grade 1-winning Route Racers

Stallions who gained on the Grade 1 degree going 1 1/8 miles or farther have sired 12 of the final 15 Travers winners. The progeny of elite route racers outperform the progeny of sprinters and milers over the testing 1 1/4-mile distance of the Travers.

Conclusions

Eight horses have been entered within the 2024 Travers. The sector is full of expertise, however a strict interpretation of the historic tendencies we’ve outlined eliminates many of the contenders from win consideration.

#7 Dornoch should be opposed since he exits a victory within the Haskell. #2 Sierra Leone and #6 Honor Marie are deep closers prone to race final and next-to-last early on, disqualifying them from win consideration. #1 Thorpedo Anna and #3 Unmatched Knowledge are gifted, however their sires did not win on the Grade 1 degree at 1 1/8 miles or farther. And if you wish to again a last-out winner, horses like #4 Company Energy and #5 Batten Down (in addition to Sierra Leone and Honor Marie) aren’t for you.

This leaves #8 Fierceness because the more than likely Travers winner from a historic perspective. He has tactical velocity, he’s a veteran of the Triple Crown, he skipped the Haskell, he’s exiting a victory within the Jim Dandy in New York, and he’s a son of a stallion (Metropolis of Mild) who gained on the Grade 1 degree at 1 1/8 miles.

Fierceness doesn’t have Javier Castellano within the saddle (Castellano is using Company Energy), however that’s a minor quibble; he’ll as an alternative be guided by Corridor of Fame jockey John Velazquez, a two-time Travers winner. For those who like utilizing historical past as your information, then Fierceness ought to be your choose within the 2024 Travers.

Good luck along with your handicapping, and benefit from the race!