Left-hander Sean Manaea has signed two-year offers with opt-out provisions in every of the previous two offseasons and is poised to reenter the marketplace for a 3rd straight winter. USA Immediately’s Bob Nightengale writes that Manaea will choose out of the second yr and $13.5MM on his deal “barring unexpected circumstances.” The lefty himself spoke to Nightengale about his latest pair of short-term offers, noting that he’d definitely take into account a longer-term pact however in contrast to many different gamers doesn’t thoughts the short-term, opt-out-laden route.
“I prefer to assume it’s enjoyable as a result of it’s a brand new journey,” Manaea informed Nightengale. “I imply, it’s a little bit nerve-wracking once you’re not with a workforce many of the offseason, nevertheless it’s all a part of the journey.”
Manaea, 33 in February, is within the midst of one in every of his finest seasons. He’s began 27 video games and pitched 150 1/3 frames with the Mets, working to a pointy 3.35 ERA with a 25% strikeout fee and eight.8% stroll fee. After favoring his four-seamer over the previous two seasons with the Padres and Giants, Manaea has returned to the sinker he sported with the Athletics as his major providing, throwing the pitch 40.8% of the time. He’s maintained the elevated utilization of his slider (26%) on the expense of his changeup (11.7%) — whereas nonetheless throwing occasional four-seamers and cutters.
The brand new pitch mix has confirmed largely efficient. Manaea is averaging 5 2/3 innings per outing, sitting on what’s almost a career-high strikeout fee and solely issuing walks at a barely above-average clip. He’s stored the ball within the yard (0.96 HR/9) and achieved an honest job avoiding laborious contact (88.8 mph common exit velocity, 38.2% hard-hit fee). He’s not drawing tons of chases off the plate (27%), however his opponents are making contact on these swings on the second-lowest fee of Manaea’s profession (53.4%).
Manaea has lengthy appeared able to placing collectively the sort of season. He frequently posts better-than-average stroll charges and common or higher strikeout charges. He was within the consideration to go within the high 10 picks of the 2013 draft however slipped to the No. 34 choose by the Royals attributable to a hip harm. That was the primary of some notable harm eventualities for Manaea, who most notably missed almost the entire 2019 season after present process shoulder surgical procedure late within the 2018 marketing campaign.
Since that surgery-ruined season, Manaea has been a sturdy supply of innings. He began a virtually full slate of 11 video games within the shortened 2020 season and has since appeared in 32, 30, 37 and 27 video games per season. The Giants regularly used him as a multi-inning reliever and bulk pitcher behind openers in 2023, therefore that yr’s 27 aid outings, however he nonetheless pitched 117 2/3 frames that yr. Manaea hasn’t been on the injured record since coming back from that 2018 shoulder process.
Given how nicely he’s pitched for a lot of the season, it’s hardly stunning that Manaea is intent on as soon as once more exploring free company. A assured multi-year deal needs to be there this time round, except Manaea has come to benefit from the mercenary life and having say over his workforce on a yearly foundation. As a result of he’ll he heading into his age-33 season, a four-year deal is probably going the ceiling, and three years appears extra affordable to count on. Even when Manaea “solely” secures a two-year assure, he’d virtually definitely achieve this whereas signing for an annual worth greater than the $13.5MM underneath his present contract.
The extra fascinating query surrounding Manaea shall be one of many qualifying provide. The Mets can lengthen a QO to Manaea if he declines his participant possibility, thus entitling themselves to a compensatory draft choose if Manaea indicators elsewhere. They’d have to be comfy paying Manaea the projected $21.2MM sum of this yr’s QO, nonetheless.
On its floor, that’s a drop within the bucket for a deep-pocketed membership just like the Mets. However the Mets have paid the posh tax each season underneath Steve Cohen’s possession, falling into the highest tier of penalty previously two seasons. RosterResource tasks them for a $171MM determine subsequent yr that’s nicely beneath the forthcoming $241MM tax barrier, however the Mets may see Manaea, Pete Alonso, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, J.D. Martinez, Adam Ottavino, Harrison Bader, Ryne Stanek, Brooks Raley, Phil Maton and Jesse Winker all hit free company. They’ll have many, many holes to fill and it gained’t take a lot to push them proper again up into luxurious territory.
If the Mets return to the highest tier of penalization — they’re already rumored to be amongst Juan Soto’s suitors and can presumably pursue different high-end targets, notably within the rotation — that will imply a 110% tax on that wage. That’d be a complete of $44.52MM if Manaea accepts. Even when they’re in a decrease tier, a 62% tax or 95% tax would nonetheless put Manaea’s complete expenditure on a QO within the $34-41MM vary. And, as a luxury-paying workforce, the Mets would solely obtain a comp choose after the fourth spherical within the occasion that Manaea signed elsewhere. That minimal compensation and large tax invoice may enable Manaea to hit the market with out the burden of draft compensation, which might solely additional strengthen his free-agent case on the heels of a powerful season.
