The 40-41 Rays are among the many key groups to observe because the commerce deadline attracts close to. Whereas they’re buried within the American League East and unlikely to shut their present 10.5-game deficit, they’re solely 4 video games out of the ultimate American League wild-card spot. On the similar time, Tampa Bay might quickly discover itself with a rising variety of big-league starters — greater than it has room to plug into its rotation.
Katie Woo, Patrick Mooney and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that Tampa Bay is anticipating righty Shane Baz and left-hander Jeffrey Springs will likely be able to rejoin the rotation earlier than lengthy; each pitchers are on the mend from Tommy John surgical procedure — Baz’s carried out in late 2022 and Springs’ carried out early final season. Baz accomplished a minor league rehab project and has continued increase in Triple-A.
As soon as considered maybe the highest pitching prospect within the sport, the 25-year-old Baz acquired a tough begin throughout his rehab stint however has now rattled off 5 begins with a 1.57 ERA and 35-to-10 Ok/BB ratio in 23 innings. Springs has additionally been in rehab for a number of weeks however has but to pitch greater than 2 1/3 innings in an outing. Earlier than his Tommy John process, the now-31-year-old Springs had emerged as the most recent in a protracted line of diamond-in-the-rough pitching finds for the Rays.
Tampa Bay acquired Springs and righty Chris Mazza in a commerce that despatched catching prospect Ronaldo Hernandez to Boston. Springs was a journeyman lefty on the time who’d posted a 5.42 ERA over three partial big-league seasons. With the Rays, he broke out to a 2.53 ERA, 29.5% strikeout fee and 6.3% stroll fee in 196 innings. Tampa Bay rewarded that breakout with a four-year, $31M extension — however Springs sadly went below the knife simply three begins into the 2023 marketing campaign.
With that pair of arms on the mend — to say nothing of righty Drew Rasmussen, who underwent an inner brace process just below one 12 months in the past — the Rays certainly have a mounting inventory of arms. The Athletic trio notes of their report that of the workforce’s present starters — Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot — Civale and Littell are the likeliest to be out there in trades. Each pitchers are of their second 12 months of arbitration eligibility and managed via the 2026 season. Civale, whom the Rays acquired final summer time in a commerce sending first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to the Guardians, is incomes $4.9M this 12 months. Yet one more product of the Rays’ virtually comical hidden-gem manufacturing unit (he was claimed off waivers from Boston), Littell is incomes simply $1.8M.
Of the 2, Littell is having fun with the stronger season but additionally has the shorter monitor file. He’s pitched 86 1/3 innings of 4.17 ERA ball with a roughly common 22% strikeout fee in opposition to an distinctive 4.3% stroll fee. For the reason that Rays took the previous starter-turned-reliever and plugged him again right into a rotation function final July, he’s given them 27 begins with a 3.98 earned run common, 20.2% strikeout fee and much more spectacular 3.6% stroll fee. (I profiled Littell’s breakout in-depth earlier this season in a chunk for MLBTR Entrance Workplace subscribers.)
Civale’s time with the Rays hasn’t gone because the workforce had hoped when buying him final 12 months. He’s posted sturdy strikeout and stroll charges alike, however his sharp Ok-BB profile has been undercut by a penchant for serving up dwelling runs. The 29-year-old righty has began 26 video games for Tampa Bay courting to final summer time’s commerce however logged a disappointing 5.26 ERA. Regardless of upping his strikeout fee from 21.1% with the Guards to 25.4% with the Rays and sustaining his terrific command (6.1% stroll fee in Cleveland; 6.2% with Tampa Bay), Civale’s ERA has spiked from 3.77 together with his former membership to five.26 together with his present one. After yielding 1.19 homers per 9 frames in 5 seasons with Cleveland, Civale has been tagged for a troubling 1.56 huge flies per 9 since heading to St. Petersburg.
There hasn’t been a significant change in Civale’s repertoire that’s prompted that flaw. He’s throwing extra sliders this 12 months on the expense of his cutter. Nonetheless, it’s not an awesome change in utilization charges, and the righty remains to be utilizing the identical mix of six pitches (four-seam, cutter, sinker, slider, curveball, and the very occasional splitter) that he used late in his Guardians tenure. His velocity has held up as nicely.
Regardless of Civale’s struggles this season, there’d be no scarcity of groups considering including him and/or Littell to their employees for the following season and a half. Each arms are inexpensive — notably for groups with CBT issues — and their established rotation arms, normally, will likely be in brief provide. That’s all of the extra true given the latest accidents to commerce candidates Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Patrick Sandoval. The leaguewide arm scarcity might place the Rays to deal from their present rotation after which exchange whichever starter is traded with an in-house arm coming back from damage.
Darragh McDonald and I mentioned this chance with the Rays on this week’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast, additionally pertaining to the opportunity of the Rays drawing curiosity in right-hander Zach Eflin. He’s arguably extra necessary to the workforce’s employees than Civale or Littell, however he’s additionally the most costly starter on the roster. Eflin inked a three-year, $40M deal in free company earlier than the 2023 season. It’s a closely backloaded pact that can pay Eflin $18M in 2025 — a hefty quantity by the Rays’ sometimes thrifty requirements. With Springs, Baz, and Rasmussen all on the mend and in a position to be part of younger arms like Baz, Bradley, and Pepiot in subsequent 12 months’s rotation, the all the time cost-conscious Rays will presumably be open to listening on Eflin whereas pondering the same gamut to the Littell/Civale situation specified by The Athletic’s report.
It bears emphasizing that even when the Rays find yourself promoting — or, as they usually have previously, working on each the “purchase” and “promote” facet of the market — Sammon, Woo and Mooney report that the entrance workplace is not considering a large-scale rebuild. Even when the Rays fall out of the 2024 race, the plan will likely be to reload, take purpose, and contend once more in 2025. Given the wealth of younger and/or cost-controlled pitching and a perennially deep farm system that retains churning out attention-grabbing younger hitters, the Rays doubtless really feel they’ve the muse of a contending membership largely in place.
As is so usually the case this time of 12 months, the Rays seem positioned as one of many groups who will, in some ways, dictate a good bit of the deadline’s dealings. Whether or not they rattle off a number of wins and thrust themselves into Wild Card place, keep the established order as a bubble workforce, or drop additional down the standings, their slate of rehabbing high quality arms provides them the flexibleness to buy present huge league arms — be it for different huge leaguers in areas of want or near-MLB prospects who can assist in 2025.
