The $1 million, Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes Saturday at Churchill Downs drew a well-matched nine-horse area led by Skippylongstocking, who has earned almost $2.3 million in his profession and who most just lately gained the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. First Mission went over the million-dollar mark in earnings final month when victorious within the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes Offered by TwinSpires over Churchill’s grime observe, and on paper these two are the highest contenders on this race, which is a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Traditional in November.
Nevertheless, there are different horses with reliable possibilities within the Foster, equivalent to latest Grade 3 Pimlico Particular Stakes winner Pyrenees, who has gained 4 races in a row. Pimlico Particular runner-up Kingsbarns has confirmed aggressive on the stage with a win within the Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes in April. Disarm completed second within the Grade 1 Travers Stakes final summer time and returned off a layoff to win final month over this observe, so he could possibly be within the hunt as effectively. Joyful American completed third within the 2023 Foster and was third in a latest prep race at Churchill Downs. Traditional Causeway has earned over $1.5 million thus far however is winless since taking the Grade 1 Caesars Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes on grass two summers in the past. Steal Sunshine gained the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes Offered by Jack Christopher in March round one tun and has completed third and fourth, respectively, in two related two-turn races since then. Dreamlike has gained simply as soon as in 9 races however has been second or third in six of the opposite seven, together with within the Grade 3 Blame Stakes at Churchill 4 weeks in the past.
Prime contenders:
Pyrenees drew the ground-saving rail for the Stephen Foster, and that will give him a slight edge over some extra skilled horses. Having gained 4 races in a row going again to December of final yr, Pyrenees has continued to mature bodily and mentally as effectively whereas transferring up in school, beginning along with his maiden win and culminating with a victory within the Pimlico Particular Stakes final month. In these 4 races, Pyrenees improved his Equibase Pace Figures from 89, to 96, to 99, topping off with a career-best determine of 103 earned within the Pimlico Particular. In three of his 4 wins, all with jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. within the saddle, Pyrenees stalked the early pacesetters in second, third or fourth, however in his win on April 12, held on the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Foster, Pyrenees took the lead from the beginning when no different horse wished it and managed the tempo to the wire whereas drawing off within the stretch by three lengths. Within the Pimlico Particular held at 1 3/16 miles, Pyrenees returned to a stalking type as he surged from third within the closing eighth of a mile and outfinished heavy favourite Kingsbarns, who had made the lead with an eighth of a mile to run, to win by three-quarters of a size. This colt has the pace to steer from the beginning or to stalk the pacesetters after which pounce within the stretch, retains Hernandez within the saddle, and is on a sample to take one other large step ahead in his Equibase Pace Determine. Pyrenees seems to be to be a formidable contender on this area.
Skippylongstocking has run two large races in a row, the first- and third-best of his victories over the previous yr, and it will be no shock if he will get his image taken within the winner’s circle for the ninth time in his 24th profession begin Saturday. He proved himself on the stage final summer time when main from begin to end within the Grade 2 Charles City Traditional Stakes held on the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Stephen Foster, after which wasn’t disgraced one bit when he completed third behind Cody’s Want in final November’s Huge Ass Followers Breeders’ Cup Filth Mile. After not ending within the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Offered by Baccarat to start out his 5-year-old marketing campaign in January, Skippylongstocking redeemed himself superbly with wins within the Michelob Extremely Challenger Stakes in March adopted by the Oaklawn Handicap on April 20. That race earned him a career-top 114 Equibase Pace Determine, which is second by one level to the back-to-back 115 figures First Mission earned in his final two races. Skippylongstocking has glorious tactical sped as effectively, as 4 of his final 5 wins have come when he pressed the chief in second for the opening three-quarters of a mile, and the opposite one earned when he led from the beginning. Drawing the surface submit within the Foster doesn’t seem like an obstacle for him, as he drew the ten submit in a area of 11 within the Oaklawn Handicap, and overcame it when jockey Jose Ortiz (who rides once more within the Foster) positioned him within the three path, then the 2 path, on the primary flip. With a equally long term from the begin to the primary flip within the Foster, Skippylongstocking might discover himself on the lead, or simply behind Pyrenees within the early phases, and from there the technique of Hernandez and Ortiz aboard their mounts could also be one thing to behold.
First Mission is actually a robust contender, having tallied 5 wins in eight profession begins and likewise a runner-up end by a nostril within the Clark Stakes Offered by Norton Healthcare final November over this observe. He was a 3-year-old final fall and earned an especially sturdy 112 determine within the Clark, making the lead and opening up by a size with an eighth of a mile to go earlier than shedding in a head bob on the wire. After resting a few months, and much like Skippylongstocking, First Mission ran poorly within the Pegasus World Cup Invitational, checking in ninth of 12 with no seen excuse. Returning two months later within the Essex Handicap, First Mission was a completely completely different horse, dominating within the stretch and ridden out to a five-length win with a career-best 115 determine. Returning 5 weeks later, First Mission repeated that effort within the Alysheba Stakes with a 115 determine and four-length victory. As he’s a 4-year-old (like Pyrenees), First Mission will not be absolutely matured, which suggests one other prime effort is probably going forthcoming on this race.
The remainder of the sector, with their greatest consultant Equibase Pace Figures, is Traditional Causeway (110), Disarm (107), Dreamlike (113), Joyful American (113), Kingsbarns (108) and Steal Sunshine (110).
Win Contenders:
Pyrenees
Skippylongstocking
First Mission
