Welcome again to Prime of the Order, the place each Tuesday and Friday I’ll be beginning your baseball day with some information, notes, and ideas concerning the sport we love.
On Tuesday, I wrote about how the Brewers have been in a position to leverage largely unheralded depth into a superb begin to their season. In a dialog concerning the column with certainly one of my pals the next day, I referred to the Brewers as “Rays North” for his or her skill to extract essentially the most out of gamers and pile up wins. However actually, the Brewers are paving their very own path and the Rays are at one thing of a crossroads.
Coming into an enormous four-game sequence towards the Orioles on Friday, the Rays are 31-31, and 13 video games again within the AL East. They’ve received 100 video games left, so there’s no must panic simply but, however they’re prone to lacking the playoffs for the primary time since 2018, and for his or her first dropping season since 2017.
The ever-present depth that has outlined the Rays for a lot of Kevin Money’s tenure simply hasn’t been there, particularly on the pitching facet. The bullpen, which has been fodder for cheeky memes every time the Rays choose a reliever up off waivers (I like tweeting “1.80 ERA coming” for each arm they snag off the scrap heap), has plunged to twenty ninth in WAR, with the group merely not possessing the breadth of arms that it has in years previous. The center relievers have been particularly troublesome; whereas Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Garrett Cleavinger have all been wonderful as soon as the ball has gotten to them within the late innings, the bridge to them is crumbling.
And their starters aren’t serving to issues. Solely Ryan Pepiot and Zack Littell have ERAs under 4.00, and Aaron Civale and Taj Bradley have been hit particularly laborious. Bradley has tantalizing potential and may carve by means of hitters with the perfect of them when he’s on — he struck out eight batters in his first three innings towards the Purple Sox two begins in the past — however when he’s off for an inning or two he will get completely hammered. He’s allowed seven homers throughout 5 begins. That inconsistency has fueled a rotation that ranks twenty sixth in WAR, and in contrast to in prior years, the Rays don’t have reinforcements on the best way. Joe Rock is their solely prospect pitching notably nicely at Triple-A.
It’s a bit extra encouraging — if not by a lot — that Tampa Bay sits nineteenth within the majors by place participant WAR, and perhaps that’s sufficient to conjure up some Rays magic. Nonetheless, I’m simply undecided this offense ought to even be this good. Isaac Paredes is nearly singlehandedly carrying the bats, with final yr’s core of Yandy Díaz (99 wRC+), Randy Arozarena (83 wRC+), and Josh Lowe (109 wRC+ in simply 15 video games thanks to some IL journeys) failing to help him. I don’t assume Díaz is immediately a mean bat; he received the batting title in 2023, continues to hit the ball laborious, and nonetheless makes nice swing selections. Arozarena is a special story. His swing-and-miss points and newfound incapability to optimally hit the ball (his sweet-spot proportion is within the first percentile) don’t precisely give me hope {that a} turnaround is imminent.
So, the place do the Rays go from right here? Many different groups can be relieved in the event that they nonetheless had a .500 file as loads of their most essential gamers underperformed; these golf equipment may financial institution on some constructive regression and resolve to improve their roster earlier than the commerce deadline. However that’s not how the Rays function, particularly in a particularly powerful AL East.
Complicating issues is their payroll, which is at present at $97 million, by far the best of the six years for which we’ve payroll knowledge at RosterResource. Whereas groups won’t ever open the books and say precisely what a specific payroll means for monetary losses and positive factors, proprietor Stuart Sternberg claimed earlier than the season that the excessive payroll would result in “actual losses.” Sternberg added that he views these losses as price it as a result of he’d “wish to hold [the successes] rolling,” and I’ve no actual motive to doubt that he implies that; the Rays have been good for years, and he’d certainly wish to have a proficient group when the franchise’s new stadium ostensibly opens in 2028. What I’m undecided, although, is that if augmenting this deeply flawed group to win this season is the perfect transfer. For the primary time shortly, I might see the Rays getting in the exact opposite path.
The Rays are by no means ones to make big additions on the deadline — it’s extra complementary gamers like Nelson Cruz and Civale, and longer-term performs for untapped potential like Arozarena and Fairbanks — however that doesn’t imply they may not make big subtractions. Tampa Bay is legendary for by no means having untouchables, and regardless of his anemic efficiency, groups are apparently fairly in Arozarena. He has the third-highest wage on the group, and I’ve no motive to consider the Rays additionally wouldn’t entertain provides for his or her two highest earners, Zach Eflin and Díaz, if the return is commensurate and the entrance workplace thinks that such a transfer can be the perfect path towards bettering in 2025 and past. On a smaller scale, if the Rays are roughly .500 by the point the deadline rolls round, I’d be stunned to see Amed Rosario, Shawn Armstrong, Phil Maton, Chris Devenski, and Harold Ramírez nonetheless on the group.
As common, what the Rays find yourself doing on the deadline may result in some head-scratching; loads of their strikes throughout their stretch of success seemingly got here out of nowhere, and a few of these surprises hardly made sense on the time. However this is a company that’s all the time excited about what’s subsequent slightly than pushing all its chips in for a single season. And there’s no motive to assume that this received’t be a fast reset slightly than an extended rebuild. Subsequent yr, ace Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen are anticipated to return to the rotation after recovering from elbow accidents that can value them most or all of this season. Additionally, the Rays ought to have über-prospect Junior Caminero, who’s at present battling quad points in Triple-A, wholesome and able to contribute in 2025. And don’t overlook about Xavier Isaac, who’s tearing by means of the minors himself and might be an possibility for the large league membership as quickly as subsequent yr. Enjoying for subsequent season might be the good transfer for the Rays at this level, and if which means buying and selling away some expertise from this yr’s membership, then so be it.
