Welcome again to Prime of the Order, the place each Tuesday and Friday I’ll be beginning your baseball day with some information, notes, and ideas concerning the recreation we love.
With simply 4 weeks to go till the July 30 commerce deadline, now’s a good time to start out taking a lay of the land and figuring out which groups will likely be shopping for, which will likely be promoting, and that are caught within the center. I’ll sort out the AL at this time and the NL on Friday. We’ve acquired quite a bit to cowl, so let’s get began.
All playoff odds are up to date by the beginning of play on Monday.
The Apparent Consumers
New York Yankees (99.4% playoff odds)
It doesn’t take a lot scrolling by Twitter/X to see some Yankees followers in a little bit of a panic due to how issues have gone recently. They’re 5-10 over their final 15 video games, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo are on the IL, and Alex Verdugo and Anthony Volpe have gone chilly throughout this disappointing stretch. However they’re nonetheless all however assured of a playoff spot, and the latest cracks within the basis don’t change their deadline technique.
The rotation has hit a little bit of a tough patch not too long ago, however it’s nonetheless a powerful and deep group. Bettering the offense behind Juan Soto and Aaron Choose and including bullpen depth are the 2 areas that New York wants to handle earlier than the top of this month.
Potential additions: Reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), third baseman Ryan McMahon (Rockies), and utilitymen Luis Rengifo (Angels) and Amed Rosario (Rays).
Baltimore Orioles (98.0% playoff odds)
Effectively, the Orioles definitely don’t want offense. Their place participant depth is astounding, and the present roster doesn’t even embody prime prospects Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo, who each are ready within the wings at Triple-A.
Baltimore’s pitching, however, is one thing of a multitude. With Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells out for the season, Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez are the one pitchers left within the rotation whom I’d really feel snug beginning within the postseason. Including a starter or two would have the cascading impact of enhancing the the Orioles’ aid pitching by bumping Cole Irvin and/or Albert Suárez to the bullpen. They might be smart to commerce from their wealth of place gamers to raised their pitching. A swap with the Mariners, who’ve a surplus of pitching however lack offense, would make a number of sense.
Potential additions: Starters Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo (Mariners), Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde (White Sox), Tyler Anderson (Angels), Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays), Jack Flaherty (Tigers), and Cal Quantrill (Rockies), and relievers Mason Miller (A’s) and Tanner Scott (Marlins).
Cleveland Guardians (89.2% playoff odds)
The Guardians have the very best nearer in baseball, Emmanuel Clase, anchoring their bullpen, however their largely ineffective and inefficient beginning rotation might make issues tough for the relievers down the stretch as their innings pile up. It helps that Cleveland has Gavin Williams again and not too long ago added Matthew Boyd on a one-year deal, although he received’t pitch till August, however these two are hardly sufficient to sufficiently reinforce the rotation. That mentioned, the Guardians usually don’t swing huge for pitching, opting as an alternative to develop arms from inside, so it’s onerous to think about that they’ll play on the prime of the marketplace for starters, particularly the non-rentals.
Cleveland’s offense has been a strong Voltron of multi-positional versatility and platoons, although I’d argue it might use another on a regular basis bat with some pop.
Potential additions: Starters Jack Flaherty (Tigers), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Frankie Montas (Reds), Nick Pivetta (Crimson Sox), and Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays), outfielder Taylor Ward (Angels), and DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s).
Minnesota Twins (79.5% playoff odds)
Regardless of chasing the Guardians within the AL Central standings, the Twins are in place as we enter July. Carlos Correa has been dynamic, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis are within the lineup collectively, and the rotation has been fairly good.
Nonetheless, Minnesota lacks energy — catcher Ryan Jeffers, who’s been slumping recently, leads the crew with 13 homers — although it definitely helps to have Lewis wholesome and thumping once more. The Twins might additionally use a greater backup infielder than Kyle Farmer, who’s been anemic on the dish all season lengthy.
Potential additions: Infielder Gio Urshela (Tigers), outfielder Taylor Ward (Angels), DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s), and utilityman Amed Rosario (Rays).
Seattle Mariners (71.9% playoff odds)
The Mariners are the inverse of the Orioles: Seattle has glorious beginning pitching however desperately wants to spice up its offense. The O’s have a surplus of hitters, and if the M’s are keen to commerce a back-of-the-rotation arm like Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo (particularly if they will add one other starter elsewhere), the 2 groups completely ought to make a commerce. Baltimore outfielder Heston Kjerstad and second baseman Connor Norby can be good additions to the Seattle lineup.
Final week, I discussed that buying Luis Robert Jr. can be the very best improve the Mariners might presumably make to their lineup, and though shifting Robert can be the prudent choice for the White Sox, it’s unclear whether or not they’d really do it. If not, there are nonetheless loads of hitters on the block who’d assist beef up the Seattle offense.
Potential additions: Second baseman Connor Norby (Orioles), outfielders Heston Kjerstad (Orioles), Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox), Taylor Ward (Angels), Josh Lowe (Rays), and DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s).
On the Fence
Houston Astros (54.1% playoff odds)
After catching hearth over the ultimate two weeks of June, the Astros most likely will find yourself shopping for on the deadline, however contemplating their playoff odds are principally a coin flip, we have now to contemplate each choices. In the event that they purchase, they’ll deal with including pitching, although they might definitely use an enormous bat at first base. In the event that they resolve to promote, I can’t think about they’d tear all of it down. I additionally don’t anticipate that they’d commerce third baseman Alex Bregman, despite the fact that he’s a pending free agent, as a result of they most likely wouldn’t wish to damage their possibilities to re-sign him within the offseason. If nothing else, they’ll prolong him a qualifying supply that might earn them a compensation draft decide if he indicators elsewhere.
Potential additions: Starters Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays), Nick Pivetta (Crimson Sox), Jack Flaherty (Tigers), Trevor Williams (Nationals), and Frankie Montas (Reds), reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays).
Potential subtractions: Starter Justin Verlander and reliever Ryan Pressly.
Kansas Metropolis Royals (40.1% playoff odds)
Kansas Metropolis has given each indication that it intends to purchase on the deadline, and its weekend collection win over the Guardians did nothing to alter that stance. The Royals want bullpen assist and extra pop of their lineup.
The factor is, our playoff odds don’t love their possibilities. If they’ve a tough month, they need to contemplate reversing course to enhance their longer-term outlook to allow them to make a run subsequent 12 months. They’ve good complementary items on expiring contracts that groups would love to accumulate.
Potential acquisitions: Reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), infielder Ryan McMahon (Rockies), outfielders Taylor Ward (Angels) and Josh Lowe (Rays), and DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s).
Potential subtractions: Relievers Will Smith and Chris Stratton, and utilitymen Garrett Hampson and Adam Frazier.
Boston Crimson Sox (31.4% playoff odds)
Oh, if solely Crimson Sox didn’t play in such a tricky division. Successful the AL East is basically off the desk, so in the event that they sneak into the playoffs, it’ll be as a Wild Card crew. Just like the Astros and Royals, if Boston is on the promoting aspect, it ought to promote solely its leases so it may possibly attempt to contend once more subsequent 12 months.
If the Crimson Sox resolve to purchase, they want depth on each side of the ball. Robust seasons from Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Tyler O’Neill have helped — as will a return from Triston Casas — however the supporting forged hasn’t been fairly as useful.
Potential acquisitions: Starters Trevor Williams (Nationals) and Frankie Montas (Reds), reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), infielder Gio Urshela (Tigers), and utilityman Amed Rosario (Rays).
Potential subtractions: Starter Nick Pivetta, relievers Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Chase Anderson, and outfielder Tyler O’Neill.
Tampa Bay Rays (21.6% playoff odds)
Even once they had been clear contenders, the Rays had been at all times keen to commerce from their main league roster. Now, with their payroll at an all-time excessive and the crew merely treading water, that stance needs to be much more pronounced.
No one’s protected from Tampa Bay’s wheeling and dealing, and I’m not even going to hassle itemizing potential acquisitions as a result of it might be anybody the crew units its sights on. These are the Rays, in any case.
Potential subtractions: Starter Aaron Civale, relievers Phil Maton and Shawn Armstrong, second baseman Brandon Lowe, and utilityman Amed Rosario.
Texas Rangers (6.7% playoff odds)
In the event that they weren’t the reigning World Sequence champs, I’d be fairly certain the Rangers would promote on the deadline. However with loads of expertise on the roster, and with Wyatt Langford lastly breaking out, I might see them standing pat or including whereas subtracting alongside the margins in hopes that all of it clicks. Perhaps they might re-create their magic by buying and selling for among the relievers they’d final 12 months, equivalent to Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and Aroldis Chapman. Both means, I don’t see any enormous strikes coming.
Potential acquisitions: Relievers Will Smith and Chris Stratton (Royals), Aroldis Chapman (Pirates), Yimi García (Blue Jays), and John Brebbia (White Sox), infielder Gio Urshela (Tigers), outfielder Tommy Pham (White Sox), and utilityman Amed Rosario (Rays).
Potential subtractions: Reliever José Ureña and outfielders Travis Jankowski and Robbie Grossman.
Doubtless and Particular Sellers
Toronto Blue Jays (4.5% playoff odds)
Whereas the Blue Jays haven’t publicly dedicated to promoting, their lane for rivalry continues to slender, and so they simply don’t have the depth of their farm system to make the strikes essential to contend.
In the event that they promote, I don’t suppose anybody can be off the desk, however they probably can be extra keen to commerce their costly contracts as an alternative of their extra affordable offers. Which means they most likely received’t be buying utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa and outfielder Daulton Varsho. That’s nice, as a result of Toronto has extra high-end expertise to commerce than every other crew within the league.
Potential subtractions: Starters Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, and José Berríos, relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards, first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., shortstop Bo Bichette, infielder/DH Justin Turner, outfielders George Springer and Kevin Kiermaier, and catcher Danny Jansen,
Detroit Tigers (3.1% playoff odds)
The Tigers regarded like they might be mushy consumers or at the least stand pat as not too long ago as a month or so in the past, however their season has taken a nosedive partly because of the underperformance of Spencer Torkelson and an damage to Kerry Carpenter. Tarik Skubal isn’t going anyplace, however Detroit has a pleasant assortment of leases that different groups will covet.
Potential subtractions: Starter Jack Flaherty, reliever Shelby Miller, infielder Gio Urshela, outfielder/first baseman Mark Canha, and catcher Carson Kelly.
Los Angeles Angels (0.7% playoff odds)
Ought to the Angels tear it down? Completely. Will they tear it down? By no means! No less than not so long as Arte Moreno owns the crew.
Whereas I can’t think about Mike Trout ever sporting one other uniform, the Angels have an enormous assortment of leases who can be of use to contenders. Moreover, they might (learn: ought to) commerce a number of gamers who’re below membership management, equivalent to Luis Rengifo and Tyler Anderson, who free brokers after 2025, and Taylor Ward, a free agent after 2026.
Potential subtractions: Starter Tyler Anderson, relievers Matt Moore, Carlos Estévez, Luis García, and Adam Cimber, infielder Brandon Drury, outfielders Taylor Ward and Kevin Pillar, utilityman Luis Rengifo, and DH Miguel Sanó.
Chicago White Sox (0.0% playoff odds)
The White Sox had been at all times going to be onerous sellers, particularly after they traded Dylan Stop to the Padres shortly earlier than the season began and signaled an actual and probably lengthy rebuild.
Garrett Crochet is sort of undoubtedly going to be on the transfer, with Erick Fedde prone to go as nicely. The one participant who is likely to be untouchable is heart fielder Luis Robert Jr., although they most likely ought to store him round to get a haul of prospects again.
Potential subtractions: Starters Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde, relievers Michael Kopech and John Brebbia, shortstop Paul DeJong, outfielders Luis Robert Jr. and Tommy Pham, and DH/outfielder Eloy Jiménez.
Oakland Athletics (0.0% playoff odds)
The Sacramento (however don’t put it within the crew identify) A’s are going to look totally different than the ultimate iteration of the Oakland A’s, and that makeover will begin this month. Whereas a commerce together with Mason Miller deal feels extraordinarily onerous to agree upon contemplating his 5 years of crew management after this one — giving the A’s a marketable participant for his or her 2028 beginnings in Las Vegas — they nonetheless ought to contemplate buying and selling him for a prospect haul. Everybody else of worth on their roster also needs to be out there.
Potential subtractions: Starter JP Sears, relievers Mason Miller and Lucas Erceg, outfielder JJ Bleday, DH/outfielders Brent Rooker and Miguel Andujar, and catcher Shea Langeliers.
