2024 WTA Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
French Open
Stade Roland Garros
Chosen Semi-finals Matches – 5 June 2024
Iga Swiatek 1/9 | Coco Gauff 52/10
Can anybody cease Iga Swiatek’s seemingly inevitable march in the direction of a 3rd successive French Open title? The Pole has been enjoying with sadistic relish since a nerve-wracking second-round comeback win over Naomi Osaka. Subsequent up she meets acquainted foe and common punching bag Coco Gauff. The American has skilled some high-profile losses to Swiatek in Paris however she can be banking on a newly revamped serve to convey down the clay-court savant.
Iga Swiatek
World No.1 Iga Swiatek has been in completely brutal kind since uncharacteristically struggling in opposition to Naomi Osaka within the 2nd spherical. I feel that the indoor circumstances in that match flummoxed Swiatek, minimizing the affect of a few of her extra exaggerated topspin.
However she hasn’t misplaced a set since as she gears as much as play in her fourth French Open semi-final in 5 seasons. Many observers- myself excluded- thought that quarter-final opponent Marketa Vondrousova may have the range to destabilise the Pole.
However Swiatek shortly dismissed that concept, bageling the previous Roland Garros finalist within the first set earlier than closing out the match 6-0, 6-2. She gained 23 of 26 first-serve factors regardless of not serving an ace. She hit 25 winners to 10 unforced errors in a very emphatic show.
Swiatek has seemed borderline unplayable at instances, successful 20 consecutive video games over three matches (one in opposition to Bouzkova, 12 in opposition to Potapova and 7 in opposition to Vondrousova). I need to lay declare to nicknaming her ‘the Baker’ in reference to the quantity of bagels she delivers.
I feel that the Osaka near-death expertise scared her and she or he hasn’t allowed any complacency to sneak in since then. That win over Vondorusova improved her sensational Roland Garros report to a staggering 33-2. It additionally meant she has now gained 17 matches on the bounce (successful titles in Madrid and Rome).
Coco Gauff
It’s straightforward to overlook that Coco Gauff continues to be simply 20 years of age (it looks like she has been on tour for greater than a decade). The reigning US Open champion made it three consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals with a combating comeback win over sentimental favorite Ons Jabeur.
The Tunisian actually had Gauff’s quantity in that first set, manoeuvring the American round with that forehand and throwing in her attribute array of drop-shots. However the American simply hung in there and bought higher because the match progressed, stripping winners off each wings.
Her crosscourt backhand was notably efficient and she or he served fairly effectively, successful 39 of her 56 first-serve factors. Nonetheless, 4 double-faults is a bit regarding coming right into a match the place she is bound to have a bundle of nerves.
Gauff had seemed serene in Paris earlier than that first-set hiccup in opposition to Jabeur, not dropping a set in her earlier 4 matches. As I alluded to earlier, Gauff has now reached three consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals. She can be hoping that the work she has finished on changing her serve right into a extra dynamic weapon pays dividends as she goes up in opposition to her arch-nemesis. I actually really feel that Gauff has to go for broke on this match.
Vondrousova was just too passive in opposition to Swiatek, permitting the Pole to take the initiative in nearly each level. Gauff wants to color the strains and stay aggressive. Gauff’s forehand has definitely proven some indicators of enchancment and she or he might want to step in each time Swiatek misses a primary serve.
The Verdict: Swiatek to win in straight units at 37/100
Swiatek has clearly dominated the head-to-head, main the American 10-1 in an virtually comically lopsided ‘rivalry’. And people stats don’t get any prettier once you go deeper.
Gauff’s three-set win in Cincinnati final 12 months was the one time she has ever taken a set off the Pole. Swiatek beat Gauff in straight units a number of weeks again in Rome. She routed Gauff within the 2022 ultimate and was additionally pretty complete after they met in final 12 months’s quarters.
Gauff must preserve that first-serve proportion up if she stands any likelihood right here. I additionally assume that crosscourt backhand may very well be a harmful weapon if she finds the appropriate vary.
I simply can’t think about a universe the place Swiatek loses this. It’s like she bought a glimpse right into a parallel dimension in opposition to Osaka, one by which she didn’t win the French Open this 12 months. And she or he didn’t prefer it. Gauff has been coughing up double faults like confetti over the previous couple of months and Swiatek’s relentless returning ought to lead to a slew of them.
I feel this recreation may very well be barely tighter than folks predict and perhaps backing over 18.5 video games at 79/100 will make some betting sense.
