With the playoff fields in each leagues practically set, we right here at FanGraphs are turning our focus to how groups arrange for October. Jay Jaffe has been masking the greatest gamers at every place among the many contenders, in addition to the worst. Dan Szymborski appeared into the particulars of playoff lineup building. Impressed by Meg Rowley, I’m taking a special tack: I’m searching for the gamers, methods, and matchups that might be the distinction between success and failure for every crew.
We already know who the very best gamers in baseball are, and they’re going to after all be vastly essential within the postseason. However much less heralded gamers incessantly have rather a lot to say about who takes dwelling the World Collection trophy. Assume Steve Pearce and David Freese lengthening their respective lineups to show these offenses from good to nice, or the Braves bullpen mowing down the opposition in 2021. (On the flip aspect, you don’t hear rather a lot about groups let down by their supporting casts, as a result of they principally lose early on.) One of the best gamers aren’t all the time probably the most pivotal. In that spirit, I went via every crew and centered on one potential pivot level. I appeared on the American League yesterday; as we speak, the Nationwide League will get its flip.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Righty Bats vs. Righty Relievers
The Dodgers have been such a playoff fixture for the final decade that it’s simple for his or her groups to mix collectively. A Chris Taylor right here, a Max Muncy there, sprinkle in a heaping serving to of Clayton Kershaw’s involved face, and fairly quickly you’ve received a Dodgers stew going. As such, it’s simple to think about all of those groups as roughly the identical. They’re the Dodgers! They’ve some star hitters and a perpetually harassed pitching employees. They combine and match the underside half of the order with platoon bats and end the sport with six lineup spots having turned over.
This 12 months, that stereotype doesn’t maintain. The Dodgers have gotten away from their all-platooning methods, significantly because the 12 months wears on. Eight spots of their beginning lineup are constant no matter opponent handedness. I don’t suppose it’s a philosophical change or something; issues simply lined up this fashion. Muncy and Tommy Edman are ok that the crew doesn’t see a lot profit in swapping them out in opposition to their respective weak factors (lefties for Muncy, righties for Edman). Miguel Rojas appears to be like like an apparent platoon candidate, solely there’s no lefty bat on the bench that makes for a simple swap.
Gavin Lux and Kevin Kiermaier are the one lefty rotational gamers on the crew (Muncy, Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani are on a regular basis starters, clearly, assuming all the things is okay with Freeman’s ankle). Lux will begin in opposition to righties, which signifies that Kiermaier (and Hunter Feduccia, in case of emergency) would be the solely lefty bat obtainable to play matchups. He’s simply not an affect hitter anymore, although, which signifies that Dodgers’ righties will probably be taking huge at-bats for themselves, even when it appears like a spot the place the crew would usually usher in a pinch-hitter.
Edman could be a switch-hitter, however he persistently fares much better when batting right-handed. Opponents will flip him round in huge spots and drive him to succeed from his worse aspect. Teoscar Hernández and Will Smith are incessantly going to see the opposition’s greatest right-handed reliever, as a result of the highest of the lineup will probably be reserved for lefty arms with acceptable matchups in opposition to Ohtani and Freeman. Even Rojas might be going to get loads of platoon-negative at-bats, as a result of the choice goes to a a lot weaker defensive setup.
In prior years, the Dodgers constructed their crew round avoiding these matchups. This 12 months, they’re simply accepting the small drawback and taking part in their guys in opposition to the opponent’s guys straight up. It’s a significant change in offensive ways relative to previous years, one made as a lot out of necessity as choice. How these at-bats go may have rather a lot to say about how the crew does as an entire – until Ohtani continues to hit like a home on hearth and win video games on his personal.
Philadelphia Phillies: Nick Castellanos
I struggled a bit in selecting the almost certainly Philadelphia distinction maker, however solely as a result of we’ve seen sufficient of this crew within the final two postseasons to know precisely what they’re about. They’ve a high-powered offense and a bevy of fantastic starters. Their bullpen is filled with high-leverage choices. Their protection? Underrated solely as a result of all the things else they’re doing is correctly heralded. The Phillies have the very best report in baseball, the third-best Pythagorean report, and the second-best BaseRuns report. They’re a wonderful crew with few apparent flaws.
That mentioned, they may use a postseason breakout from Nick Castellanos, who has been borderline unplayable at factors previously three years, and can also be able to successful a collection singlehandedly. His model – free-swinging with huge cuts – results in loads of strikeouts that really feel completely uncompetitive. Slider off the plate, fastball on the letters, slider within the dust, thanks for taking part in. However as a result of he’s taking extra dwelling run swings per at-bat than nearly anybody else, typically he goes on a house run tear. Prior to now month alone, he has a 10-game stretch with a 221 wRC+ and one with a 50 wRC+.
The Phillies are incessantly ok to win even when Castellanos isn’t clicking. Prior to now three years, he has an combination 103 wRC+, and but they’ve been probably the greatest groups in baseball. However their actually white-hot stretches typically coincide with Castellanos’, as a result of he’s simply that useful to the offense when he’s on a tear. His potential to show any pitch – whether or not it’s proper down the center or three inches off the plate – into runs is uncommon outdoors of the perfect within the sport. week would possibly flip a single collection round. month would possibly decide the World Collection.
Milwaukee Brewers: Outfield Protection
I’m unsure you perceive how good Milwaukee’s outfield has been this 12 months. They’re second within the majors in quite a lot of superior estimates of defensive worth, however that understates issues. Christian Yelich performed the primary chunk of the 12 months in left subject, and whereas he’s clearly a web enhance to the crew, that enhance is on offense; he’s a below-average defender at this level in his profession. After his harm, the crew has been operating out a squad of three middle fielders: Jackson Chourio in left, a platoon of Blake Perkins and Garrett Mitchell in middle, and Sal Frelick in proper.
Every of these 4 is an elite defender. Due to the middle subject platoon, they’ll run out the very best outfield protection within the playoffs even when one of many non-Chourio choices will get pinch-hit for. Line drives within the hole are simply value much less in opposition to Milwaukee, and that modifications the calculus for its pitchers considerably.
This season’s low offensive surroundings fits the Brewers fairly nicely. When the ball stays within the yard, they’re the crew that advantages most. Their prime pitchers all have fly ball tendencies, and why not? You’d be extra keen to give up some aerial contact if it means giving this outfield an opportunity to make some performs.
It’s not a lot that Milwaukee’s infield protection is unhealthy. It’s fairly stable, in truth: Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang are each wonderful. However with the best way strikeouts dominate the sport as of late, extra-base hits are the simplest solution to rating. And further-base hits are within the air, which suggests outfield vary is likely one of the most precious commodities within the run prevention arms race. If the Brewers can coax a ton of balls within the air out of their opponents with out falling sufferer to a house run parade, they’ll go far.
San Diego Padres: Tanner Scott and Adrian Morejon
The Padres have assembled an incredible squad regardless of large turnover final winter. Buying and selling Juan Soto to pare down on wage clearly damage, and practically the complete beginning rotation departed. However by turning Soto into Michael King and Dylan Stop (not directly), and because of Jackson Merrill’s emergence, the Padres look pretty much as good as they’ve in years. They actually have a deep and versatile bullpen because of A.J. Preller’s aggressive strikes on the commerce deadline.
One key to that bullpen? Its two high-leverage lefty arms. When the Padres and Dodgers confronted off this week in a playoff preview, Mike Shildt had a transparent plan: tilt his matchups to ensure his crew put its greatest foot ahead in opposition to Ohtani and Freeman. Tanner Scott is the backup nearer, however he’s additionally a fearsome lefty specialist, and Shildt likes to make use of him in opposition to the opponent’s greatest lefty. Adrian Morejon is the subsequent man within the hierarchy, and offers Shildt flexibility to match up in opposition to his opponents’ greatest lefties twice in the identical sport if mandatory. There’s additionally worth to swapping them round to stop opposing hitters from getting too many appears to be like at them in the identical collection.
The choice level for the Padres goes to come back on the prime of the order. The Dodgers and Phillies, the 2 greatest groups within the NL, stack two nice lefty hitters of their prime three batters. The Padres will possible use 4 righty starters, so Shildt should weigh the advantages of getting to make use of his starter for a full workload in opposition to having his greatest matchups in opposition to the opposite aspect’s greatest batters. It’s going to come back right down to context; if the third time via for Ohtani or Kyle Schwarber comes with the bases juiced and the rating shut, I feel it’ll be reliever time. If it’s decrease leverage, the starter will in all probability keep in.
Both method, these choices are going to be main inflection factors if the Padres make a deep playoff run. Their crew setup – all righty starters, nice lefty relievers, and a deep bullpen general – signifies that the actual query of the way to stability starter size, reliever familiarity, and high-leverage platoon matchups will come up in nearly each sport in opposition to the NL’s greatest.
New York Mets: The First Massive Pinch-Hitting Spot Every Sport
The Mets have an enviable drawback: too many DHs. Even with Mark Vientos taking part in third base as a substitute of a bat-only place, there’s not sufficient room for Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez to hit within the lineup on the identical time. Winker can pretend proper subject in a pinch, however the Mets appear pleased with Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo within the outfield corners, which suggests the one actual possibility is to platoon Winker and Martinez.
That’s annoying, as a result of it signifies that the crew nearly by no means will get to play its 9 greatest place gamers on the identical time. However it comes with a silver lining: They’ll have a starter-level bat to herald as a pinch-hitter in each sport. That might be Martinez blowing up an opposing supervisor’s lefty specialist in Winker’s spot, or Winker changing any variety of sketchy righties in opposition to a platoon-deficient reliever.
The Mets don’t have a very versatile lineup general. Sure, Luisangel Acuña appeared nice as a short-term Francisco Lindor alternative (assuming no re-aggravation of his harm), however he’s not a scary bat. Harrison Bader, Tyrone Taylor, Eddy Alvarez, Luis Torrens — there isn’t a number of offensive thump available off the bench. For probably the most half, the crew goes to line up its greatest gamers and allow them to win or lose on their very own deserves.
That would put them at an obstacle in opposition to groups which might be capable of rework their very own groups a bit extra, giving gamers with edges of their particular matchup extra taking part in time. However for one at-bat a sport, at no matter time appears most advantageous, New York will get to flip that benefit on its head. Their potential to take advantage of out of the pinch-hitting ace up their sleeve goes to swing video games, and probably collection.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Successful From Behind
No crew in baseball has carried out higher whereas behind within the rely than the Arizona Diamondbacks. That’s partially as a result of they’re an excellent offense general – they’ve been the very best group within the sport because the All-Star break – nevertheless it’s additionally due to their explicit ability. They don’t strike out. They put a ton of balls in play – they’ve the second-lowest whiff fee in baseball – and chase lower than nearly anybody else.
The playoffs are a high-strikeout affair as of late. With the compression of beginning pitcher innings and the enlargement of power-heavy bullpens, the typical pitch within the playoffs is much better than the typical pitch within the common season. But when anybody’s geared up to remain alive regardless of these robust pitches, it’s this 12 months’s Arizona squad.
If the Snakes are good whereas behind within the rely – comparatively good, after all, nobody is superior when taking part in at an obstacle – they’ll additionally have the ability to faucet into the opposite factor their offense does greatest: obliterate fastballs in fastball counts. They’re not probably the most aggressive swingers once they get forward, however they hunt fastballs and do injury. Solely the Mariners have carried out higher in opposition to fastballs when forward within the rely. It’s a mix of selective aggression and energy that helps clarify why Arizona’s offense has been so good. They’re laborious to place away, they usually attempt to do injury once they get forward.
If the Diamondbacks can preserve doing these two issues, their lineup goes to be a nightmare. There’s energy far and wide. The eight and 9 hitters every have strikeout charges under 15%. If the crew can flip a bunch of robust counts into seeing-eye singles, they’re going to attain runs in bunches. If they’ll’t, their pitching employees in all probability received’t be sufficient to maintain them.
Atlanta Braves: The New Night time Shift
The Braves make the Mets seem like a paragon of roster depth. They’ve constructed their crew round a stars-and-scrubs strategy, and that received pushed even additional with season-ending accidents to Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, and Austin Riley. Their offseason guess on a Jarred Kelenic breakout didn’t pan out. Their lineup is an odd mixture of castoffs and stars, with Gio Urshela and Ramón Laureano taking part in daily alongside the previous standbys of Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, and Marcell Ozuna. To their credit score, the fill-ins have carried out nicely thus far, however realistically, this crew isn’t an offensive juggernaut.
Atlanta’s energy lies on the prime of its rotation. Chris Sale is the plain NL Cy Younger winner. Max Fried isn’t on the peak of his powers, however he’s an excellent quantity two possibility. Reynaldo López has been superb all 12 months. The extra of the Braves’ playoff video games that contain a kind of three guys beginning, the higher their odds will probably be. That’s no knock on Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach, however with a makeshift offense, each little little bit of pitching enchancment helps, and attending to cowl extra innings with Sale is pretty much as good because it will get on that entrance.
To make the equation work, the Braves must emulate themselves from 2021 and empty the bullpen of its greatest arms each time they’ve a lead. En path to their 2021 championship, the Braves used Luke Jackson, Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, and A.J. Minter in practically each victory. This 12 months’s model could be Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson, and a lefty (both Aaron Bummer or Dylan Lee).
All of those guys have been wonderful this 12 months. The entire bullpen has been wonderful, in truth, to the tune of an combination 3.30 ERA. They’ll must proceed that type. Something can occur in a month’s value of baseball video games, however Atlanta’s offense merely doesn’t look pretty much as good as most of their NL competitors. But when Brian Snitker can coax three-ish scoreless innings out of his prime relievers in each shut sport, the equation appears to be like rather a lot higher. Do it proper (and make it into the playoffs to start with, after all), and there could be one other World Collection ring in his future. Fail, and there could be a number of shootouts within the crew’s future. They don’t look nicely geared up to win these, to say the least.
