Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Horse Racing ideas
12:55 Naas – Hurricane Cliff
13:25 Naas – Firefox
14:20 Chepstow – Jeffrey’s Cross
14:05 Plumpton – Cloud Dancer
14:40 Plumpton – Minella Blueway
*All costs are bang updated with our snazzy widgets, whereas odds in copy are correct at time of publishing however topic to alter.
Primarily based on his latest kind, prime weight Embittered is price loads of respect on this weak trying 2m handicap chase having fallen from a excessive mark of 147 some 12 months in the past to his present score of 132. The 11-year-old ran rather well within the Topham Trophy over the Grand Nationwide fences in April, till his stamina gave out up the run in, and also you definitely couldn’t crab his effort within the Munster Nationwide when he was nonetheless within the firing line three from dwelling earlier than backing out to complete eighth.
Again right down to 2m, I shall be having a saver on him to return my stake on HURRICANE CLIFF. Silver King ran a good race on return, however doesn’t impress together with his leaping approach, whereas The Different Mozzie most likely needs higher floor than this. The choice has some unfinished enterprise to take care of. He was nicely regarded by HDB, successful a maiden hurdle after which working nicely in some invaluable occasions at Leopardstown and Punchestown. 5 runs over fences have yielded one victory off a mark of 112, after which his astute coach took a punt, and ran him in a Listed novice chase at Fairyhouse the place he travelled properly till having a set to with the eighth impediment. That made him lose all momentum and he shortly pulled up. A mark of 120 absolutely underestimates his stage of expertise, and with indicators the secure are lastly selecting up, I feel he’s the primary punt on this winnable contest.
Hindsight is a wonderful factor in racing, however it’s going to by no means refund your dropping stakes, so take consolation from the very fact even the shrewdest trainers sometimes get it fallacious. Emmet Mullins with Corbetts Cross within the King George is one selection instance. And the proof trying again additionally tells us final season’s novice hurdlers have been nicely beneath par as nicely, which is able to put many off you supporting FIREFOX for this prestigious Grade Two.
Nevertheless, I liked the way in which he travelled powerfully by the race on his chasing debut at Down Royal, and readily put the competition to mattress when requested, and his subsequent shut third to Croke Park within the Drinmore was a big step ahead in a race run at a stop-start tempo which wouldn’t have helped his rhythm. I fancy he’s price one other likelihood, despite the fact that one other important slice of enchancment is required to beat seemingly favorite, Inthepocket, and Ile Atlantique. The primary named got here again from his absence to readily win at Wexford, however his leaping was not put underneath any stress, as these behind him didn’t get a shot at their goal and that won’t be the case right here and the Willie Mullins’ cost ought to give a result in our choice. I concern the latter extra following his win over two and a half miles. If these two commerce blows up entrance it may depart them weak if Sam Ewing stays out of the early battle up prime.
Regardless of solely six set to go to publish right here, there seems to be to be sufficient tempo on this race to chop out the potential for a dash from the house flip with the sunshine weight Captain Boudet and Heros de Romay set to make it a good gallop. The Venetia Williams’ skilled Get pleasure from Your Life is definitely approach higher than his pulled up effort at Exeter final day out, when he was struggling a great distance from dwelling, following a promising opening right here over two and a half miles. Nevertheless, I feel they may all have their work lower out to see off prime weight JEFFREY’S CROSS who has clearly had his issues, however appears as if he retains loads of his previous potential judged on a cracking second at Windsor on his first run for 581 days.
That day you can see Harry Skelton was attempting to nurse him by the race and get him leaping from fence to fence, which he did, and it was solely within the ultimate 200 yards he discovered that lack of a run taking part in towards him. In case you consider within the bounce issue, then for a lot of of you that might be his major drawback right here, however I don’t, and if coming ahead sufficient from that apply outing I fancy he may outclass his rivals right here – earlier than being requested sterner questions later within the season.
A disappointing turnout of simply 9 runners for this £75,000-added contest with final yr’s winner Transmission set to defend his crown following his superb win 12 months in the past when his younger rider carried out an excellent feat of horsemanship within the early phases of that contest. An 8lbs greater mark although requires lots extra towards some elegant opponents. Prime weight Monmiral has run two stable races this season making the stylish Sturdy Chief work laborious within the Grade Two Coral Lengthy Distance Hurdle at Newbury final day out. Nevertheless, he’s nonetheless 7lbs greater than his successful mark within the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Remaining on the Cheltenham Pageant.
With each Cloud Dancer and Craven Bay taken out you can make an argument of kinds for the remaining 5 runners, however latest French raider, LEMONCELLO may nicely be the decision. Venetia Williams strike rated has fallen to 12% up to now fortnight from the heady Saturday successful days by November and early December when she was hitting 53% win and place, however this latest import is unexposed on the journey and is tried and examined on hock deep floor.
His staying on second to Nemeon Lion at Hereford was a good stage of kind and the additional yardage, first run at this prolonged journey, ought to logically convey a few important stage of enchancment and it will likely be fascinating to know if there may be any additional cash for the six-year-old pre-race.
There’s some severe prize cash up for grabs on the East Sussex observe and it’s a disgrace the 2 major races have solely attracted fields of 9 and eight respectively. Three and a half miles round right here won’t appear a frightening prospect for a lot of, however the important thing to successful this Sussex Nationwide Handicap Chase is to get into a correct rhythm, and pop away on the obstacles. To that impact, Gold Clermont may have his personal approach up entrance. Versatile, as regards ways, he has run a few of his greatest races when allowed off the leash and off this mild weight may nicely take some catching. Unanswered Prayers completed a creditable third to Mr Vango within the London Nationwide at Sandown, as Damaged Halo pulled up. The latter is a few 6lbs higher off right here and nonetheless travelled okay underneath Lorcan Williams earlier than bottoming out shortly turning for dwelling earlier than the Pond Fence.
He seems to be positive to come back good for that run, and a mark of 132 is playable, and I feel he may almost reverse that Esher kind. However the vote goes to Welsh raider MINELLA BLUEWAY who to my eyes has merely been crying out for a check of this nature. Nonetheless a maiden after three begins over fences, he ran a cracker behind the robust staying Ballycamus at Windsor final day out, and appears prepared for this deeper check of stamina. His leaping that day was stable and he’s 5lbs decrease than his highest successful mark over hurdles.
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Horse Racing ideas
12:55 Naas – Hurricane Cliff
13:25 Naas – Firefox
14:20 Chepstow – Jeffrey’s Cross
14:05 Plumpton – Cloud Dancer
14:40 Plumpton – Minella Blueway
*All costs are bang updated with our snazzy widgets, whereas odds in copy are correct on the time of publishing however topic to alter.
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