Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Horse Racing ideas
15:10 Punchestown – Fortunedefortunata
15:30 Musselburgh – Minella Youngy
16:40 Punchestown – Apples In Winter
16:52 Lingfield – Card Shark
*All costs are bang updated with our snazzy widgets, whereas odds in copy are correct at time of publishing however topic to vary.
Predictably, Gordon Elliott has dominated this actual stamina slog with 5 winners up to now seven years, however none of his profitable gamers or the opposite 5 from 2015 have truly had an affect on the Grand Nationwide at Aintree.
That may’t be deemed as something of a shock if you consider the comparability within the layouts of the 2 tracks and the disparity within the official going particulars as nicely.
The Co. Meath handler has a ‘disappointing entry’ of simply the 4 runners on this 12 months’s area of 16, with maybe Will Do being essentially the most fascinating of them.
I backed this teenager in November for the Paddy Energy Handicap Chase run over Christmas within the hope that the step as much as three miles would convey a couple of sharp quantity of enchancment. And to a sure extent, it did, however then, to a big extent, he took a step backward within the Thyestes Chase final trip, being overwhelmed totally 31 lengths.
That race wasn’t a really deep check of stamina with a median time determine, and this deeper check could nicely see the eight-year-old take a step again in the correct path below his featherweight, and he’s rightly revered right here.
The race reader that day tagged 10 of the 18 horses that ran within the Thyestes with the phrase ‘didn’t all the time soar with fluency’, however Gowran is a rhythm monitor so far as fencing is worried, and the very fact they didn’t burst the bridge tempo smart wouldn’t have helped in that respect.
Some previous warriors take their probability once more right here, and it isn’t arduous to see the likes of Velvet Elvis and Kings Halo operating nicely. However reminiscent of that Gowran Park handicap could possibly be the important thing to this race with a minimum of 9 runners lining up right here some 24 days on. Velvet Elvis is totally 5lbs increased for that second inserting, and he was clearly primed for that well-known contest, having run down the sector in a Pertemps Hurdle qualifier on his seasonal comeback.
But he’s worse off on the weights with all these behind him that day, however I simply can’t discover an edge on a kind of different 9 runners, and in the long run, the choose at a ‘worth’ worth might nicely be one among Elliott’s mild weights, FORTUNEDEFORTUNATA.
Rated 130 over hurdles, he confirmed loads of promise on his three chase begins final spring over distances means in need of his greatest. This time period, he has raced in 5 handicap hurdles, 4 over three miles, and proven that stamina could possibly be the important thing to him. Again over fences, with little weight to hold and operating off 120, he might very nicely be an enormous springer out there. I will even be having a saver on Will Do.
The most important issue when assessing this two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase was that there appears, in concept, to be loads of tempo on, and this area of 9 might get racing from a way out.
That would favour a hold-up horse, and for that purpose, Lizzie Quinlan’s gelding, MINELLA YOUNGY, who final received off a ranking of 97 over an prolonged two miles at Kelso, however has proven that he stays this journey, might nicely be concerned down the lengthy house stretch on the Edinburgh monitor.
Coming back from wind surgical procedure, the seven-year-old ran a race stuffed with promise when catching the attention late on when a by no means nearer fourth of 10 at Sedgefield in a handicap hurdle off 87 and now will get to race off a mark of simply 85 again over fences. The opposite main consider his favour is the drying floor, and it might nicely be nearer good on this very fast drying floor by the official off time of this contest.
Of his rivals, I’ve essentially the most regard for the top-weight Arctic Ambition, who ran a cracker on his comeback run at Ayr earlier than lack of situation advised from the third final, and he was in a short time eased down. He ought to come on an absolute bundle for that blow out and a ranking of 98 appears to be like tempting.
From an preliminary mark of a lowly 79 as much as immediately’s ranking of 106, the story of Duffys Hodey is a outstanding one and a few wonderful inserting from his very shrewd handler, and the journey could nicely not finish right here, such was his dominance right here on February third. In fact, he’s set to run over a extra extreme journey, however there appears no purpose why he received’t get house, and it’s only a matter of whether or not he can take one other vital step ahead to quash that rise in a a lot deeper race.
If this race have been being run on higher floor then Folly Seaside would undeniably be my primary choose, however I’m not so certain that the mare needs the bottom to be this testing. Her runs over two and a half and three miles in July present that she could possibly be nicely weighted. However on such testing floor, I’m extra inclined to row in with Liam Casey’s cost, APPLES IN WINTER, at an enormous worth.
She was second in a point-to-point to Emily’s Selection, who has since received two hurdle races in England, rated as excessive as 110, and the choice runs off a mere 91 right here.
In fact, there could be enormous margins for error utilizing a degree as a dependable supply, however nonetheless, I believed she ran a stable, if fairly unusual, race again from a two-month break right here in February over three miles.
Out the again early on, the daughter of Imperial Monarch negotiated her hurdles fairly than flew them, however as soon as she was given additional encouragement after racing within the rear, she made good headway between the third and second final earlier than her effort petered out. Again in journey and off this very lowly mark she might outrun her probably enormous odds.
I’ve been ready for the very evenly raced son of Darkish Angel, CARD SHARK, to race once more following a promising run at Kempton Park final month, and now could possibly be the time to wade in that he has stepped as much as a extra appropriate distance.
That third behind Stella Hogan has been properly cemented since, albeit at a low degree, with the winner being positioned twice off a 5lbs increased mark and the second, Cherry King, positioned second after which profitable final trip.
The choice was given some not possible duties on his first few runs on the extent, operating behind two horses now rated 90+ on the flat. However that enabled him to be handicapped off a really low mark at first of his profession, and his operating on effort on the Sunbury-on-Thames monitor adopted a 243-day spell on the sidelines was greater than promising.
So a big step ahead could be anticipated right here, however even on the naked bones of that effort, he ought to be a number one participant in what quantities to a reasonable and really winnable contest.
Dubai Honour continues to disappoint for Pat Phelan, which implies that the most important hazard might nicely come from the previous boy Mr Trick, who lastly confirmed a bit extra spark over the course and distance behind Main Main some three and a half weeks in the past.
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Horse Racing ideas
15:10 Punchestown – Fortunedefortunata
15:30 Musselburgh – Minella Youngy
16:40 Punchestown – Apples In Winter
16:52 Lingfield – Card Shark
*All costs are bang updated with our snazzy widgets, whereas odds in copy are correct on the time of publishing however topic to vary.
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