Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Suggestions
12.45 Windsor – Vincenzo
13:10 Navan – Healdsburg
14:07 Carlisle – Wakool
15:40 Windsor – Onewaywest
*All costs are bang updated with our snazzy widgets, whereas odds in copy are correct at time of publishing however topic to alter.
There might solely be 5 runners on this two-mile handicap chase, however the make-up of this race makes it a vastly fascinating betting occasion. What we principally have listed here are 4 hold-up/midfield horses, however with simply the one ahead working entry; particularly my choice, VINCENZO.
From a handicapping perspective, there isn’t a actual standout, though I used to be impressed by the best way that Helnwein went by way of his belated seasonal comeback race at Warwick behind Telepathique. Leaping nicely all through, the highest weight regarded all set to attain between the third and second final after I suppose that he in all probability blew up, and subsequently, Tom Cannon wasn’t laborious on him.
Alan King’s cost appears like the largest hazard to the choice as he appears positive to get a great tow by way of the race. Making his chasing debut, the choice has primarily run over two and a half miles in his seven runs over timber, however on a number of events, I’ve thought that he barely will get house over that prolonged journey. This drop to the minimal distance round a observe which ought to favour his ahead working type makes him the plain play right here in what appears a tightly knit novices handicap chase.
I’ve to confess I’ve but to strike in considered one of these lower-grade large field-staying handicap hurdles in Eire this season, however this appears like an appropriate medium to play in, with extra rain anticipated at this stiff observe.
The Story So Far is much less uncovered than most on this 18-runner discipline and, on a few events final 12 months, signalled that this might be his set-up, particularly when he took a late fall at Limerick, having beforehand completed behind the very good Mercurey at Punchestown. So a mark of 111 much less Alex Harvey’s 5lbs declare makes him of curiosity at a value.
Boston Seaside is even much less uncovered, having visited the race course on simply three events, and Gordon Elliott does nicely together with his younger horses taking up reasonable seasoned campaigners at this stage, whereas the handicapper has given Rodney Bay an actual likelihood off a mark of 104 with Sean Flanagan a optimistic reserving. Royal Cave would in all probability have gained had he not fallen on the final at Fairyhouse, however I’m undecided this deeper floor can be his cup of tea.
In the long run, although, I’ve come down on the aspect of HEALDSBURG who was very inexperienced when he returned to the observe in September.
Since then, the son of Vendangeur has made steps ahead, and he ought to be prepared for his peak efficiency on his handicap debut off a ranking of simply 100. His final run in a maiden hurdle at Tipperary was method higher than his ending place of sixth suggests, and his small yard has discovered him a really fascinating opening right here, as much as this journey for the primary time.
A number of of those entries must win to get a hike within the weights to even ponder making the Pertemps Closing in March at Cheltenham even when they ‘qualify’ by making the primary 4.
High weight Gwennie My Boy might be price one other likelihood after finishing a hat-trick of wins earlier in 2024 off marks of 113, 117, and 126. He then ran within the extremely aggressive Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Haydock Park in what had been determined circumstances however may by no means get the possibility to reinforce that file when he took a tender fall on the fourth flight. Tried and examined in deep floor and set to race off the identical mark right here (137) that is fairly clearly a neater process for him.
Shallow River was additionally progressive final 12 months, however he has been absent for some 46 days since going out like a lightweight on his return at Newton Abbot. Regardless of being crushed some 27 lengths, the handicapper has been saved on the identical mark, so the vote goes to the Alexander cost, WAKOOL, who has undergone a wind operation because the again finish of final season when he was seemingly struggling to get house on his closing three begins crushed a complete of 162 lengths.
The eight-year-old made his comeback at Ayr initially of November, solely weakening when approaching the second final. This can be his second run since his operation and he’s set to run off a mark beneath 130 for the primary time in two and a half years. If that run has introduced him on then he ought to be able to step up right here.
This was in all probability probably the most aggressive races of the day, and there are a number of each-way gamers price a re-examination.
Previous Time Chaser is a lovely-looking scopey-looking horse who, in time, will make a stunning chaser, as his title befits. This journey over this sharp observe although might not play to his strengths, and until there may be vital market assist I’m joyful to let him slip till he races over a extra galloping observe and even look forward to him to go chasing.
Fourtowns has been knocking on the door of late and ran one other good race when crushed by three and a half lengths by Courtroom Cian at Uttoxeter. The issue is that his consistency stops the assessor in dropping him within the weights. His final three begins have been off 105.
High weight Douglas DC hails from the identical college of consistency however is revered off high weight. Nevertheless, it’s the Ben Pauling cost, ONEWAYWEST, that comes right here with the power to go away behind his present mark of simply 109.
A half brother to graded winner Birchdale, he began off his hurdling profession nicely final 12 months with positioned efforts at Huntingdon and Ffos Las earlier than he regarded set for victory at Wetherby just below a 12 months in the past when he was injured.
Working properly at house there’s a likelihood that he’ll presumably want the run, however he ought to be leaving this grade behind sooner or later and is a large participant right here if the market speaks in his favour.
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Suggestions
12.45 Windsor – Vincenzo
13:10 Navan – Healdsburg
14:07 Carlisle – Wakool
15:40 Windsor – Onewaywest
*All costs are bang updated with our snazzy widgets, whereas odds in copy are correct at time of publishing however topic to alter.
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