Like clockwork, every NFL offseason appears to see a brand new highest-paid quarterback within the league — usually reflecting a group locking up their starter whereas he’s on a rookie contract.
Earlier this month, it was Jacksonville Jaguars passer Trevor Lawrence’s flip to reset the market. The primary choice of the 2021 draft signed a monster extension value $55 million per season, tying him with Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals for the place’s highest common annual worth (AAV).
One other inevitability of the quarterback market is that when a brand new profitable deal is introduced, focus will circle again to Patrick Mahomes’ comparatively low AAV.
The league’s greatest star signed a 10-year pact for $450 million in 2020. 4 years later, an exponentially rising quarterback market has seen Mahomes’ $45 million per season fall to solely the ninth-highest within the league.
Be properly conscious, nevertheless, Mahomes is just not giving the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs an enormous hometown low cost. His standing because the ninth-highest paid quarterback within the league is a fantasy that solely exists for accounting functions.
After Burrow signed his extension final offseason, the Chiefs did a significant adjustment to Mahomes’ decade-long deal. Whereas the unique contract is technically nonetheless in impact, cash scheduled to be earned after 2027 was moved ahead to pay Mahomes on common $52.7 million for the 2023-27 seasons.
In return for successfully giving out a elevate lower than three years right into a 10-year contract, the Chiefs gained priceless flexibility in how the cash is charged for wage cap functions. Whereas the deal is undoubtedly “team-friendly,” that overused time period shouldn’t be confused with the precise compensation being a monetary discount.
Most who observe NFL contracts know that the reported common per yr is usually a meaningless quantity, and the true measure lies in assured cash. With the restructure, Mahomes set a file with $210 million assured over a four-year interval.
With Trevor Lawrence having signed his new deal, the best paid QBs for the 2024-27 seasons on a money move foundation at present are:
Mahomes $215.6M
Burrow $213.9M
Goff $193.6M
Hurts $184M
Watson $184M
Herbert $182.6M
Cousins $180M
Jackson $179.2M
Lawrence $155.5M…— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) June 20, 2024
On first look, Mahomes lags properly behind his friends in common wage. The obvious travesty, nevertheless, solely exists as a technicality as he can nonetheless anticipate to earn more money than his friends in the course of the course of their seemingly extra profitable contracts.
However Mahomes remains to be signed by 2031, proper? One of the best reply to that query could be “It’s difficult.”
The restructure saved the unique contract in place, which means he technically is signed to the unique size. Nevertheless, there are two key causes Mahomes’ deal successfully now solely exists by 2027.
The face of the league gained robust leverage over the group with cap construction over the approaching seasons. 2025 will start a trio of years when Mahomes is at present slated to rely for greater than $60 million of the Chiefs’ wage cap. Kansas Metropolis will quickly have to additionally flip their consideration to some proficient younger gamers who’ve helped ship back-to-back championships — comparable to cornerback Trent McDuffie.
In some unspecified time in the future — probably earlier than dealing with a $66.3 million cost to a single participant in 2025 — Chiefs basic supervisor Brett Veach will negotiate a totally new contract together with his quarterback. The Chiefs can not afford to journey Mahomes’ contract as is and proceed fielding a championship-caliber roster.
Even when possession ghoulishly decides Kansas Metropolis has had sufficient playoff success and adopts an austerity strategy to outlive the cap disaster, Mahomes’ present deal has an analogous shelf life.
The $45 million AAV incessantly cited to justify the concept that he’s underpaid depends upon a near-impossible situation occurring. In 2027, Mahomes is scheduled to earn $52.9 million in precise cash. 2028 is the primary yr that cash was “borrowed” from to fund the 2023 restructure. In that yr, he’s at present scheduled to solely earn $27.2 million in precise compensation.
Does anybody actually imagine the league’s most recognizable participant — after what is going to by then have been a decade of all however printing cash for the NFL — goes to just accept a $25 million pay lower due to a contract that can then be seven years previous?
Mahomes ought to have a brand new record-setting deal lengthy earlier than that may develop into a difficulty. On his subsequent contract, anticipate an unprecedented construction, as his first extension had. Don’t be shocked if it covers one other 10-year interval to maximise home windows to restructure massive salaries and to unfold out cap hits.
Anticipate to listen to the identical group of pundits lament that Mahomes is permitting the Chiefs to underpay him, particularly if he doesn’t hit market-topping thresholds for the imaginary worth that’s AAV.
And know that the longer term Professional Soccer Corridor of Fame choice does loads of charity work, however Kansas Metropolis’s entrance workplace is just not a recipient. The wage particulars could be unconventional for the rest of his profession — however his true earnings will replicate his standing within the sport from right here on.
