Hey, you, NFL bettor. Cease overthinking these odds for 2024 Defensive Participant of the Yr. Looking for a sleeper assured to make you and solely you a boatload of cash whereas the remainder of us are left questioning why we hadn’t thought of what instantly looks like an apparent choose.
Let me let you know proper now earlier than you sprinkle an pointless chunk of your bankroll on Brian Burns at +6000, hoping to flip $60 into $3,600.
It ain’t taking place.
Why? As a result of that’s what historical past tells us. Oddsmakers don’t at all times get it proper when projecting outcomes, which is the enjoyable in playing. However they’ve been pretty strong on the subject of handicapping the DPOY. So, simply persist with the favorites on this one.
In seven of 10 years because the 2014 season, the eventual DPOY had top-three odds to win the award coming into the season, in response to SportsOddsHistory, and top-five odds in 9 of 10 years. The one outlier was the uncommon cornerback winner, Stephon Gilmore, in 2019.
In any other case, the winners have been among the many crop of gamers individuals thought it is likely to be. For 2024, meaning favorites Micah Parsons (+550), T.J. Watt (+650) and reigning DPOY Myles Garrett (+650) needs to be receiving the majority of consideration.
Thus far, that hasn’t precisely been the case. Although Watt is the most important legal responsibility to win the award at BetMGM, main all gamers in tickets (17.6%) and cash wagered (22.4%), bettors are in any other case taking a bet on longer candidates.
Maxx Crosby at +900 is the third-most ticketed participant with the second most cash wagered, and Chris Jones at +2500 has the third-most cash wagered. Aidan Hutchinson at +1500 is the second-most ticketed participant with the fourth-most cash wagered.
Bettors are too simply dismissing Parsons and Garrett in all this, and it’ll in all probability be a mistake.
Now, it’s price noting the outright favourite has solely received twice within the final 10 years, so perhaps that’s why Parsons isn’t attracting extra motion. However that doesn’t clarify why Garrett accounts for simply 3.8% of tickets and three.1% of deal with.
I do agree with the general public on Watt, although. A detailed second to Garrett final season after racking up a league-leading 19 sacks, it’ll be troublesome for voters to move on him if he places up one other monster season like that. For somebody who’s averaged greater than a sack per sport since his second yr within the NFL, I’d say it’s extra probably he does than not.
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