Olympic Evaluation – Defensive Score – At Residence On The Court docket

Conventional volleyball statistics are boring, uninteresting (sure, I do know that’s redundant) and conceptually limiting. Moneyball and the info revolution means we are able to seek for completely different (higher) methods of understanding volleyball via reimaging previous strategies, and growing new strategies. A few of these are described right here.

One space that’s woefully beneath analysed is the function of various ability areas within the transition section. We perceive that extra aces is best than much less aces, that extra service errors is (typically) higher than much less service errors, that block factors are good, and that’s about it. Don’t get me began on digs and defence. We don’t effectively perceive how block and defence collectively influence the sport past figuring out that they do. Numbers of blocks and (god forbid) digs don’t assist in understanding.

We are able to simply measure the effectiveness of the serve utilizing the expBP%, and opp.expSO% (coming quickly to a weblog close to you). One of many benefits of utilizing ‘anticipated’ measures for reception and serving is that not solely do they relate on to sideout and breakpoint, they use the identical scale. Because of this taking and evaluating ‘anticipated’ outcomes with precise outcomes we are able to begin to analyse completely different elements of the sport. For instance…

The expBP% measures the effectiveness of the serve. It’s what number of break factors we must always count on to win on the idea of serve high quality. This could imply that the distinction between expBP% and precise BP exhibits us the impact of the opposite elements of the break level section, the opposite elements being block, defence and transition assault. Clearly that quantity will be both optimistic or unfavorable. Let’s name this distinction defensive score. A workforce can have a block defence system that provides to the worth of the serve (optimistic defensive score), or detracts from it (unfavorable defensive score). What about an instance from the latest Olympics.

The very first thing to note is that Brazil was one of the best workforce within the breakpoint section at 35.9%. And so they did it by being good at serving (32.9%, third in expBP%) however their defensive system added 3% to the breakpoint charge. That made them one of the best defensive workforce within the event, fairly a feat contemplating they misplaced three of their 4 matches. That France is the second greatest defensive workforce shouldn’t be a shock provided that, a) they received and b) what we all know concerning the particular person gamers.

As we go down the checklist we discover a few fascinating issues. The very best serving groups have been Slovenia and Poland, and each relied on their serving to create their level scoring alternatives (each have a defensive score round zero or beneath. The workforce with the what we’d consider as one of the best defensive workforce, i.e. Japan, truly depends very closely on their serving. Because it seems (and also you’ll should take my phrase for it for now), Brazil, Slovenia and Japan have been one of the best at defence by ATT/D. The important thing level in understanding the distinction between defence (ATT/D) and defensive score exhibits what number of assaults come from defence. Defensive score exhibits what number of of these have been anticipated on the idea of the standard of the serve.

I sense that I’ve reached the purpose the place writing extra will detract from understanding, so I’ll go away it there and ask for feedback.