NL West 2024 forecast – by G. Scott Thomas

It appears pointless to difficulty annual predictions for the Nationwide League West.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have received 10 of the previous 11 divisional crowns. Their solely failure, if you wish to name it that, occurred in 2021, once they completed second regardless of a glowing 106-56 file and superior all the best way to the NL Championship Sequence.

So is it truthful to imagine that the Dodgers will proceed to dominate the NL West in 2024?

Completely.

My history-based prediction system envisions one other divisional crown within the membership’s quick future, and it’ll most likely come simply. The Dodgers received the West by 16 video games final yr. An identical margin is probably going this season.

My forecast is predicated on comparisons of the three-year information (2021-2023) of the 5 NL West golf equipment towards corresponding performances of 1,288 big-league groups because the introduction of free company in 1976.

My laptop remoted the 50 closest matches for every present-day group — that’s, the 50 golf equipment from the previous whose three-year information basically mirrored these of a present member of the NL West.

It’s my principle that the next performances of the 50 closest matches (CMs) ought to give us a glimpse of the probably programs for every division member within the season forward.

That’s excellent news for the 2021-2023 Dodgers, who most carefully resembled Atlanta’s 1991-1993 squads. These Braves went on to submit a powerful 68-46 file earlier than the 1994 season was halted by a strike. An almost-certain playoff berth vanished when that yr’s postseason was canceled.

Right here’s how the Dodgers’ 50 CMs carried out of their subsequent seasons:

Ascending scores are connected to the 4 rungs of this ladder — starting with a single level for exceeding .500 and rising to 4 factors for a world title. Los Angeles earns a complete of 143 factors, simply main the division.

Listed here are the anticipated standings for the Nationwide League West, based mostly on every membership’s collective rating for its 50 CMs:

• 1. Los Angeles Dodgers, 143 factors

• 2. San Diego Padres, 78 factors

• 3. Arizona Diamondbacks, 71 factors

• 4. San Francisco Giants, 44 factors

• 5. Colorado Rockies, 14 factors

Scroll all the way down to see every group’s forecast, together with its 2023 file, the mixed performances of its 50 CMs, and particular breakdowns of the 5 matches that got here the closest of all. Make sure to test the next season for every match. (I exploit these abbreviations: W signifies a World Sequence winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)

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• 2024 prediction factors: 143

• 2023 file: 100-62 (.617, P)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 4 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 9 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 29 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 42 of fifty

• CM #1: Braves (1991-1993) — 1994 file of 68-46 (.596)

• CM #2: Braves (1998-2000) — 2001 file of 88-74 (.543, P)

• CM #3: Phillies (2007-2009) — 2010 file of 97-65 (.599, P)

• CM #4: Cardinals (2004-2006) — 2007 file of 78-84 (.481)

• CM #5: Indians (1994-1996) — 1997 file of 86-75 (.534, LP)

• 2024 prediction factors: 78

• 2023 file: 82-80 (.506)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 4 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 15 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 32 of fifty

• CM #1: Dodgers (2010-2012) — 2013 file of 92-70 (.568, P)

• CM #2: Blue Jays (2005-2007) — 2008 file of 86-76 (.531)

• CM #3: Diamondbacks (2006-2008) — 2009 file of 70-92 (.432)

• CM #4: Purple Sox (1980-1982) — 1983 file of 78-84 (.481)

• CM #5: Phillies (2002-2004) — 2005 file of 88-74 (.543)

• 2024 prediction factors: 71

• 2023 file: 84-78 (.519, LP)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 15 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 31 of fifty

• CM #1: Blue Jays (1981-1983) — 1984 file of 89-73 (.549)

• CM #2: Yankees (1991-1993) — 1994 file of 70-43 (.619)

• CM #3: Athletics (1997-1999) — 2000 file of 91-70 (.565, P)

• CM #4: Mets (2003-2005) — 2006 file of 97-65 (.599, P)

• CM #5: Astros (1991-1993) — 1994 file of 66-49 (.574)

• 2024 prediction factors: 44

• 2023 file: 79-83 (.488)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 7 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 27 of fifty

• CM #1: Mariners (1997-1999) — 2000 file of 91-71 (.562, P)

• CM #2: Phillies (1993-1995) — 1996 file of 67-95 (.414)

• CM #3: Giants (1989-1991) — 1992 file of 72-90 (.444)

• CM #4: Marlins (2003-2005) — 2006 file of 78-84 (.481)

• CM #5: Brewers (2011-2013) — 2014 file of 82-80 (.506)

• 2024 prediction factors: 14

• 2023 file: 59-103 (.364)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 3 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 8 of fifty

• CM #1: Braves (1986-1988) — 1989 file of 63-97 (.394)

• CM #2: Pirates (1999-2001) — 2002 file of 72-89 (.447)

• CM #3: Brewers (2000-2002) — 2003 file of 68-94 (.420)

• CM #4: Athletics (1977-1979) — 1980 file of 83-79 (.512)

• CM #5: Astros (2009-2011) — 2012 file of 55-107 (.340)