NL East 2024 forecast – by G. Scott Thomas

A fantastic race is in retailer for the Nationwide League East in 2024.

Properly, let me make clear. There must be a terrific race between two of the division’s 5 golf equipment, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. The opposite three groups will basically function bystanders, watching placidly from a substantial distance.

That’s the forecast from my history-based prediction system, which compares the three-year data (2021-2023) of present golf equipment towards the corresponding performances of 1,288 groups courting again to the appearance of free company in 1976.

My laptop sifted via practically half a century of information to isolate the 50 closest matches for every present-day crew — that’s, the 50 golf equipment from the previous whose three-year data basically mirrored these of a present member of the NL East.

The following performances of the 50 closest matches (CM) ought to — theoretically, not less than — give us an thought of how every division member will carry out within the yr forward.

Right here’s an instance: The 2021-2023 Braves matched most intently with the 2009-2011 Phillies, who slipped to a .500 report in 2012. That’s not a very good omen for the 2024 Braves, although I swiftly notice that the following eight golf equipment on Atlanta’s match record all certified for the playoffs, beginning with the Braves’ second-ranked CM, the 2001-2003 New York Yankees, who received 101 video games in 2004.

Right here’s how the Braves’ 50 CMs fared of their subsequent seasons:

I’ve awarded ascending scores to the 4 rungs of this ladder — one level for exceeding .500 as much as 4 factors for a world title. Atlanta earns a complete of 126 factors. That’s the best sum within the division, although not by a lot. Philadelphia is simply 4 factors behind.

Listed here are the anticipated standings, based mostly on every membership’s collective rating from its 50 CMs:

• 1. Atlanta Braves, 126 factors

• 2. Philadelphia Phillies, 122 factors

• 3. New York Mets, 57 factors

• 4. Miami Marlins, 39 factors

• 5. Washington Nationals, 16 factors

Scroll right down to see every crew’s forecast, together with its 2023 report, the mixed performances of its 50 CMs, and particular breakdowns of the 5 matches that come the closest of all. Make sure to examine the next season for every match. (I exploit these abbreviations: W signifies a World Sequence winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)

Subsequent week: the Nationwide League Central.

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• 2024 prediction factors: 126

• 2023 report: 104-58 (.642, P)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 8 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 27 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 40 of fifty

• CM #1: Phillies (2009-2011) — 2012 report of 81-81 (.500)

• CM #2: Yankees (2001-2003) — 2004 report of 101-61 (.623, P)

• CM #3: Giants (2000-2002) — 2003 report of 100-61 (.621, P)

• CM #4: Cardinals (2011-2013) — 2014 report of 90-72 (.556, P)

• CM #5: Yankees (2000-2002) — 2003 report of 101-61 (.623, LP)

• 2024 prediction factors: 122

• 2023 report: 90-72 (.556, P)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 4 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 8 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 22 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 38 of fifty

• CM #1: Astros (1993-1995) — 1996 report of 82-80 (.506)

• CM #2: Pirates (2012-2014) — 2015 report of 98-64 (.605, P)

• CM #3: Rays (2009-2011) — 2012 report of 90-72 (.556)

• CM #4: Reds (2011-2013) — 2014 report of 76-86 (.469)

• CM #5: Pirates (1974-1976) — 1977 report of 96-66 (.593)

• 2024 prediction factors: 57

• 2023 report: 75-87 (.463)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 11 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 25 of fifty

• CM #1: Dodgers (1984-1986) — 1987 report of 73-89 (.451)

• CM #2: Astros (1985-1987) — 1988 report of 82-80 (.506)

• CM #3: Orioles (2013-2015) — 2016 report of 89-73 (.549, P)

• CM #4: Rangers (1995-1997) — 1998 report of 88-74 (.543, P)

• CM #5: Braves (1982-1984) — 1985 report of 66-96 (.407)

• 2024 prediction factors: 39

• 2023 report: 84-78 (.519, P)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 9 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 18 of fifty

• CM #1: Cubs (1975-1977) — 1978 report of 79-83 (.488)

• CM #2: Angels (1975-1977) — 1978 report of 87-75 (.537)

• CM #3: Mariners (1988-1990) — 1991 report of 83-79 (.512)

• CM #4: Indians (1977-1979) — 1980 report of 79-81 (.494)

• CM #5: Reds (2004-2006) — 2007 report of 72-90 (.444)

• 2024 prediction factors: 16

• 2023 report: 71-91 (.438)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 9 of fifty

• CM #1: Yankees (1989-1991) — 1992 report of 76-86 (.469)

• CM #2: Phillies (2014-2016) — 2017 report of 66-96 (.407)

• CM #3: Mariners (1979-1981) — 1982 report of 76-86 (.469)

• CM #4: Cubs (2011-2013) — 2014 report of 73-89 (.451)

• CM #5: Satan Rays (2001-2003) — 2004 report of 70-91 (.435)