NL Central 2024 forecast – by G. Scott Thomas

Please permit a quick brag.

Virtually all the specialists picked the St. Louis Cardinals to win the Nationwide League Central final yr. CBS Sports activities, for instance, convened a panel of six baseball reporters. 5 selected St. Louis. ESPN’s preview put the Playing cards atop what it referred to as “a tender division.” The Sporting Information agreed.

My laptop method dared to dissent, establishing Milwaukee because the divisional favourite. And the Brewers, after all, went on to win the NL Central by a nine-game margin. The Cardinals completed final.

I make no declare to clairvoyance. My history-based prediction system has issued a number of clunkers since 2021, however that’s not the problem right here.

What’s vital is the upcoming 2024 season, by which my method as soon as once more defies the consensus by selecting Milwaukee within the Nationwide League Central, regardless that the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds appear to be extra in style with the betting public.

So be it.

My method matched the three-year data (2021-2023) of all 5 NL Central golf equipment towards the corresponding marks for 1,288 groups for the reason that introduction of free company in 1976.

It recognized the 50 closest matches (CMs) for every present staff — the 50 golf equipment from the previous whose three-year data primarily mirrored these of a present-day member of the NL Central.

The next performances of these 50 groups ought to recommend to us how every division member will carry out within the yr forward. (In principle, at the very least.)

Right here’s how the Brewers’ 50 CMs fared of their subsequent seasons:

I assigned ascending scores to the ladder’s 4 rungs — one level for topping .500 as much as 4 factors for successful a world title. That provides Milwaukee a complete of 98 factors, simply the best sum within the division.

Listed here are the NL Central’s predicted standings:

• 1. Milwaukee Brewers, 98 factors

• 2. Chicago Cubs, 85 factors

• 3. St. Louis Cardinals, 56 factors

• 4. Cincinnati Reds, 28 factors

• 5. Pittsburgh Pirates, 28 factors

A tie-breaker offers Cincinnati the sting over Pittsburgh for fourth place. The CMs for each golf equipment didn’t win a single world title, however the Reds had the slightest of benefits on the subsequent rung (one league title to none).

Scroll all the way down to see every staff’s forecast, together with its 2023 file, the mixed performances of its 50 CMs, and particular breakdowns of the 5 matches that got here the closest of all. Make sure you test the following season for every match. (These are the abbreviations: W signifies a World Sequence winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)

Subsequent week: the Nationwide League West.

A brand new installment will arrive in your electronic mail upon posting

• 2024 prediction factors: 98

• 2023 file: 92-70 (.568, P)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

• Received league title in subsequent season: 6 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 19 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 34 of fifty

• CM #1: Pink Sox (1988-1990) — 1991 file of 84-78 (.519)

• CM #2: Braves (2005-2007) — 2008 file of 72-90 (.444)

• CM #3: Dodgers (2006-2008) — 2009 file of 95-67 (.586, P)

• CM #4: Dodgers (2000-2002) — 2003 file of 85-77 (.525)

• CM #5: Orioles (1975-1977) — 1978 file of 90-71 (.559)

• 2024 prediction factors: 85

• 2023 file: 83-79 (.512)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

• Received league title in subsequent season: 5 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 15 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 32 of fifty

• CM #1: Brewers (2015-2017) — 2018 file of 96-67 (.589, P)

• CM #2: Rangers (2007-2009) — 2010 file of 90-72 (.556, LP)

• CM #3: Tigers (1976-1978) — 1979 file of 85-76 (.528)

• CM #4: Rockies (2015-2017) — 2018 file of 91-72 (.558, P)

• CM #5: Diamondbacks (2005-2007) — 2008 file of 82-80 (.506)

• 2024 prediction factors: 56

• 2023 file: 71-91 (.438)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 3 of fifty

• Received league title in subsequent season: 4 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 6 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 20 of fifty

• CM #1: Mets (2007-2009) — 2010 file of 79-83 (.488)

• CM #2: Cubs (2019-2021) — 2022 file of 74-88 (.457)

• CM #3: Dodgers (2003-2005) — 2006 file of 88-74 (.543, P)

• CM #4: Reds (1987-1989) — 1990 file of 91-71 (.562, WLP)

• CM #5: Pink Sox (2010-2012) — 2013 file of 97-65 (.599, WLP)

• 2024 prediction factors: 28

• 2023 file: 82-80 (.506)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Received league title in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 5 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 15 of fifty

• CM #1: Expos/Nationals (2003-2005) — 2006 file of 71-91 (.438)

• CM #2: Reds (2000-2002) — 2003 file of 69-93 (.426)

• CM #3: White Sox (1985-1987) — 1988 file of 71-90 (.441)

• CM #4: Astros (1974-1976) — 1977 file of 81-81 (.500)

• CM #5: Reds (1996-1998) — 1999 file of 96-67 (.589)

• 2024 prediction factors: 28

• 2023 file: 76-86 (.469)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Received league title in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 7 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 14 of fifty

• CM #1: Royals (2009-2011) — 2012 file of 72-90 (.444)

• CM #2: Mariners (1980-1982) — 1983 file of 60-102 (.370)

• CM #3: Mariners (2010-2012) — 2013 file of 71-91 (.438)

• CM #4: White Sox (2017-2019) — 2020 file of 35-25 (.583, P)

• CM #5: Royals (2018-2020) — 2021 file of 74-88 (.457)