NFL midseason grades: Contenders & pretenders amongst Packers, Seahawks, Falcons, Steelers and extra

Halfway via the NFL season, we’re beginning to see the actually elite groups separate themselves on the high of the league. The Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs fall on this class as main candidates to achieve the Tremendous Bowl. We’re additionally seeing some actually horrid groups separate themselves on the backside of the league. The Patriots, Jaguars and Saints fall into this class, groups whose seasons are just about useless within the water at this level.

Nonetheless, what can we make of the groups in between them? The center class of the NFL has by no means felt bigger, with many of the league nonetheless hovering round .500. There are some extremely enjoyable and good groups, however all with some massive flaws as properly. So how can we separate these groups which can be true contenders from groups who’ve benefitted from some luck this season? That’s the objective at the moment, to parse via the center class of the NFL and see who can actually make a deep run within the postseason, and who won’t have the horses this 12 months.

Utilizing FTN Fantasy’s Crew DVOA scores, we’ll separate the highest 5 in Crew DVOA and the underside 12 in the identical metric, hopefully getting groups 6-19 to debate. Within the course of, we’re flipping the Buffalo Payments and San Francisco 49ers, as a result of I believe the Payments are among the many NFL’s elite. So let’s hop in and see which groups are contenders and that are pretenders, beginning with the Tremendous Bowl runner ups from final season.

San Francisco 49ers: Contenders (hesitantly)

Part of me desires to imagine that this 49ers’ season is completed. Already with losses to the Rams, Cardinals and Vikings, they’ve put themselves behind the eight-ball relating to playoff competition, and nonetheless have video games towards Tampa Bay, Inexperienced Bay and Detroit developing with the opposite division video games. The 49er protection isn’t dangerous this 12 months, but it surely’s only a bit off the usual we affiliate with this group. They’re fifteenth in Defensive EPA per play and sixteenth in Success Price, making them nearly completely common, a drop down from their elite ranks. Mix that with dropping WR Brandon Aiyuk to a torn ACL and also you get a group that’s been severely hit by the harm bug and the general mind drain of being the most effective group within the convention for 5 or so years.

But, I discover myself nonetheless believing on this group. RB Christian McCaffrey may very well be coming again after the bye week, as will WR Jauan Jennings. It stays to be seen how efficient McCaffrey will likely be after lacking a big portion of the season, however his skill to maintain San Francisco out of man protection conditions and be probably the most explosive portion of the Niners’ offense is essential with Aiyuk out for the season. I need to say this group received’t make it, however so long as Kyle Shanahan is teaching I believe the Niners are contenders…perhaps.

Photograph by Tim Warner/Getty Pictures

Houston Texans: Pretenders

The Texans are a bizarre group. A irritating group, if you’ll.

Regardless of having all of the makings of a group prepared to leap into the waters of the elite this season, they only haven’t put collectively constant stretches of play. A big a part of this falls on the offense, who has an issue up entrance. They’re twentieth in Adjusted Line Yards, useless final within the NFL in proportion of runs the place the again is hit at or behind the road of scrimmage, and CJ Stroud has been sacked 21 occasions. All of those got here to a head in a befuddling Thursday Evening loss to the New York Jets the place Stroud was sacked eight occasions and solely accomplished 11 of his 30 passes. Defensively, I believe they’re fairly good, however are prone to numerous explosive performs downfield, having the third-highest DVOA allowed on deep passes in your entire league.

WR Nico Collins coming again ought to assist the offense return to some type of good play, however I’m undecided if this group is prepared but to be a severe playoff contender.

Washington Commanders: Contenders

I nonetheless have my doubts concerning the sustainability of all of this, however make no mistake about it: the 7-2 Commanders are contenders within the NFC. Their offense, led by rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and star wideout Terry McLaurin, is placing up extraordinarily environment friendly numbers, sitting fairly at first in offensive EPA per play and second in DVOA on that very same facet of the ball. They keep out of apparent passing conditions, and even after they do, they get some hero performs from Daniels and McLaurin, who’ve displayed a mind-meld in contrast to something I’ve seen from a rookie QB this early. As soon as they get RB Brian Robinson again, the run recreation turns into much more potent.

I’ve numerous questions concerning the viability of a protection that’s simply okay, but when the offense can play like they’ve, they’ll get a shot in a bizarre NFC.

Photograph by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Pictures

Inexperienced Bay Packers: Contenders

I nonetheless think about the Packers, regardless of a humbling 24-14 loss to the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Quite a lot of that religion is reliant on a wholesome Jordan Love, nevertheless. It was clear on Sunday that Love wasn’t 100% as a result of a groin harm suffered towards Jacksonville, and his motion was compromised, resulting in some actually boneheaded performs.

Holding the Lions to solely 24 factors is a testomony to each the climate affecting the sport and the Packers’ protection, however the offense has to get extra from their youth in these kind of video games. Love had a nasty recreation general, the receivers mixed for six drops and penalties damage their group. However once more, I believe I’ve seen extra sustainable offense from the Packers than not, so I’ll maintain them within the contender class.

Philadelphia Eagles: Contender (hesitantly)

Identical to the Texans above them, the Eagles are an extremely irritating group. Regardless of beating the Jaguars 28-23, the offense sputtered for many of the recreation and have been actively hamstrung by their head coach and his rollercoaster choice making in crucial moments. That’s probably the most bewildering half about this group. Nick Sirianni feels incapable of creating a sound choice, and it trickles down via the remainder of the workers. For instance: a rollout cross on 4th and 1 regardless of having Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts on the group. Or perhaps kicking a 58 yard area objective as an alternative of attempting to ice the sport by simply going for it. Or how about all of the failed 4th down conversions? These items all add up and it places the pinnacle coach immediately in entrance of the expertise attempting to win the sport. If the Eagles make the playoffs and sputter out once more, it’ll be due to the pinnacle coach.

Nonetheless, Philly is a contender due to mentioned expertise. They’ve too many stars on offense and it feels just like the protection is coming collectively on the proper level within the season. Including CB Cooper DeJean to the beginning lineup has helped mix what Vic Fangio desires to do within the secondary, they usually’re getting high quality play from LBs Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean. Their inconsistent cross rush may be what will get them on the defensive facet of the ball, however they’ve performed properly.

The Eagles are contenders, however till Nick Sirianni exhibits he’s able to not reducing out his personal groups’ legs from beneath them, they’re nothing greater than that.

Photograph by Joe Sargent/Getty Pictures

Pittsburgh Steelers: Contender (hesitantly)

One other hesitant contender enters the chat! The Steelers are 6-2 and within the midst of getting some actually good soccer from QB Russell Wilson, so why are they hesitant contenders? The principle hesitancy is how sustainable this degree of play from Wilson is. Since coming into the beginning lineup he’s proven the flexibility to generate explosives downfield together with his arm whereas protecting Pittsburgh’s offense on observe, however I don’t know the way constant each he and the operating recreation will likely be. In Wilson’s two video games, they’ve performed two of the worst run defenses within the NFL within the Jets and Giants, and have video games towards each the Ravens and Browns in addition to the Chiefs developing. If they will’t constantly generate something on the bottom, it places extra on the shoulders of Wilson, who won’t be capable of carry that load like he used to. The protection continues to be good, however the Steelers have at all times fielded a great protection. If Pittsburgh desires to go additional than the divisional spherical, it’ll have to maintain this degree of play from Wilson.

Los Angeles Chargers: Contender

The Chargers are a contender as a result of in a weaker AFC, they’ve two issues that separate groups come playoff time: a protection that is excellent and a QB taking part in at a really excessive degree. Justin Herbert has actually performed some insane soccer during the last 4 video games. Whereas the stats won’t present it (throwing to Will Dissly and Simi Fehoko will try this), he’s proven a lot management over this offense and is even doing extra creation out of construction as properly. So long as Herbert is taking part in properly, they’ll have a shot in each recreation. Then on the defensive facet, DC Jesse Minter has the Chargers protection firing on all cylinders. They’ve been tremendous spectacular on the again finish, taking part in on a string, whereas up entrance Khalil Mack and Poona Ford flip again the clock up entrance. The younger linebackers are taking part in properly within the center, and it’s actually introduced the unit collectively as an entire. To not point out, they have already got wins over Denver and Cleveland this season.

I’m not saying we must be ready for the Chargers making the playoffs in Yr 1 beneath Jim Harbaugh, however I’m saying that it wouldn’t shock me.

Atlanta Falcons: Contender

The Atlanta Falcons are contenders as a result of they boast one of the versatile offenses in your entire league. For the reason that opening season loss to Pittsburgh, Atlanta has a high 5 offense in EPA per play and is sixth in offensive success charge as properly. QB Kirk Cousins is taking part in at a excessive degree, doing extra true QB’ing from shotgun and in customary dropback conditions than he did in Minnesota, and he’s developed a rapport with receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney. Mix that with among the coolest gamers within the league in RBs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier and also you get an offense that’s cooking up a storm. Plus, they’ve already overwhelmed the Bucs twice and the Saints as soon as, principally locking up the NFC South at this level.

My solely level of concern is a protection that may’t rush the passer constantly, however as a result of they’ve an offense that may put up factors with anybody, I’m in on this group.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Pretender (hesitantly)

I had a lot religion within the Buccaneers, however I’m simply undecided this group can get to the playoffs of their present kind. Thoughts you, this isn’t actually concerning the offense. Whereas they will nonetheless undergo from the Baker Mayfield bozo drive right here and there, the Bucs offense nonetheless has discovered very nice pockets of play with out WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans (Evans is anticipated again after Week 11). Their display recreation with all three operating backs is de facto good, and the offensive line is coming collectively properly.

The Bucs drawback is a protection that’s exhibiting increasingly cracks by the day. Regardless of being fourth within the NFL in blitz charge, they’re solely sixteenth in strain charge per Professional Soccer Reference. They’ll’t actually get residence with their pressures, and due to the construction of their protection, which means a defensive lineman is out in protection, leaving them open to getting carved up. Their again seven has been hit onerous by harm, which doesn’t add to the scenario any higher both. If they will’t beat the Chiefs on Monday night time, the season has an opportunity of getting worse earlier than it will get any higher.

Photograph by Michael Owens/Getty Pictures

Arizona Cardinals: Pretender (hesitantly)

The Cardinals are the one group within the NFC West above .500. In case you had that in your NFL bingo card this season I need to shake your hand and provide you with an award. The Cardinals are an enchanting group as a result of they’re constructed like they may be extra ready to contend in 2025, however as a result of they’re main the division proper now, why not attempt to make a run? The offense is a little more high-variance than I would really like them to be, however at their greatest they trigger so many issues due to their skill to play in heavier formations. TE Trey McBride is a budding celebrity in addition to WR Marvin Harrison Jr, and RB James Conner is a sort out breaking machine. Whereas QB Kyler Murray has stretches of inconsistency, he’s an electrical playmaker who’s able to main this offense.

They’re pretenders for now as a result of I nonetheless have points with this protection, and it’s just because they’re too small up entrance. The Cardinals prefer to play with all three safeties on the sector, however due to how little they’re up entrance, these safeties find yourself getting crushed by groups with a succesful run recreation, like numerous groups the Cardinals would face within the playoffs. For now, I’m going to say they’re pretenders. However they’re taking part in with home cash at this level, and with a lighter schedule they very properly might win the division.

Denver Broncos: Pretender

I’m simply undecided if the Broncos can significantly make a run to finish the season. Whereas I really like their protection and the way they play when everyone seems to be wholesome, the offense leaves so much to be desired. Clearly, the quarterback spot goes to get numerous scrutiny, and I believe Nix has had numerous stretches of poor play, however outdoors of Nix I simply don’t actually have numerous religion on this supporting forged as a playoff group. Outdoors of WR Courtland Sutton, I believe the receiver group wants a bit extra maturation, they usually’re attempting to determine their RB rotation as properly. Perhaps they will backdoor their approach into the playoffs, however they’ve two video games towards the Chiefs left, in addition to video games towards the Chargers and Bengals on the schedule. I’m hesitant to name them a contender, however subsequent 12 months may very well be a great one.

Cincinnati Bengals: Pretender

I’m not doing this with the Bengals once more. I simply can’t. Cincy is 4-5 after throttling the aimless Raiders on Sunday, however I simply don’t assume that is the 12 months for the Bengals. Whereas Joe Burrow has performed implausible soccer, the protection continues to be reliant on otherworldly Trey Hendrickson performances with the intention to win constantly on that facet of the ball. They’re one of many worst run defenses in your entire league, which in addition they mix with some actual complicated stretches of play within the secondary. The younger DBs for Cincinnati nonetheless want extra time to develop, however their schedule doesn’t actually afford them a lot time to develop. Can the Bengals’ offense will them simply outdoors of the playoff image? Certain, however I don’t assume they’ll have sufficient to do it this 12 months.

Photograph by Rio Giancarlo/Getty Pictures

Seattle Seahawks: Pretender

No Seahawks recreation is ever regular, which makes this season probably the most irregular for Seattle shortly. It was at all times going to take time for the protection to actually gel, however they permit far too many massive performs to be severe on protection proper now. Nonetheless, my situation is with an offense that’s at all times in its’ personal approach up entrance. Their lack of ability to do something up entrance is de facto hampering what they will run on offense. They’re twenty eighth in Adjusted Line Yards, have given up 28 sacks and proper now can’t even snap a ball appropriately. This lack of ability to run something up entrance places numerous strain on QB Geno Smith to be good on each cross, and never even he’s proof against a a number of interception recreation like he had on Sunday. Even regardless of that, the Seahawks will nonetheless discover themselves within the hunt due to Smith and the opposite expertise on the offensive facet of the ball, however I don’t know if the offensive line can do sufficient for them to make it.

Los Angeles Rams: Contender

The Rams did this final 12 months, and that’s largely the rationale why I believe they will do it once more. LA has a system for the way they win, which is a ferocious younger cross rush and QB Matthew Stafford catching fireplace for a number of video games. That’s how they beat Seattle on Sunday, and it’s a really efficient technique. So long as Stafford, WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams play, the Rams’ offense is such a particularly tough group to defend. Stafford may be placing collectively a few of his greatest play in current weeks, and so long as they will get that from him the Rams are going to problem for the playoffs. If the cross rush, led by sensational rookie EDGE Jared Verse, can proceed to be excellent, this Rams group could make the playoffs.