Can anybody cease the Mets? That’s not a query I anticipated to be asking this 12 months, until it was “Can anybody cease the Mets from signing marquee free brokers?” or “Can anybody cease the Mets from imploding in probably the most Mets-y manner conceivable?” However because the Nationwide League Division Sequence begins, the Mets are on a type of team-of-destiny runs that looks like a self-fulfilling prophecy. There’s no deficit they’ll’t overcome, no lead they’ll’t squander after which retake within the subsequent inning. They’re upping the diploma of problem considerably beginning Saturday, although: The Phillies have been top-of-the-line groups in baseball all 12 months, they usually’re rested and prepared for what guarantees to be an thrilling collection.
A story of the tape – Francisco Lindor is nice at x, Bryce Harper is nice at y, Zack Wheeler and Kodai Senga will sq. off in Recreation 1, so on and so forth – doesn’t really feel like the correct solution to describe this collection. As a substitute, I’m going to concentrate on how every crew tries to win, and the way these plans are almost certainly to go awry.
The Mets have thrived offensively this 12 months with a easy blueprint: energy on the high of the lineup and Jose Iglesias in some way doing all the things else. Lindor is so good that he’s nearly an offense unto himself: He led the Mets in runs (107), RBI (91), steals (29), on-base proportion (.344), slugging proportion (.500), and just about all the things else you possibly can think about, aside from house runs (33). In that class, he completed one off the crew lead behind Pete Alonso. Alonso had a down 12 months in 2024, however he’s excellent on the ability the Mets most want from him: clobbering homers to drive in Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and generally Iglesias. Mark Vientos features as a second Alonso; he’s there to hit homers or advance runners with situational hitting, however he’s contemporary out of situational hitting.
This plan has labored fairly nicely all 12 months, and it’s labored significantly nicely within the string of playoff and playoff-like video games they’ve received this week. The highest 5 hitters mixed to drive in all of the runs in Monday’s playoff-clinching win towards the Braves. Iglesias and Vientos keyed Tuesday’s victory over the Brewers. A 3-run Alonso homer was all of the scoring they wanted to ship Milwaukee house Thursday night time. It’s hardly an unsustainable plan; the Mets have been seventh in wRC+ (109) and likewise runs scored (768) this 12 months, near-doppelgängers for the Phillies.
What might go fallacious with New York’s offense? It’s fairly simple to know. If Lindor, Alonso, and Vientos aren’t supplying the ability, runs are onerous to return by. Even with Iglesias handing over a career-best season as a slap-hitting spark plug, the Mets play station to station. They’re one of many worst baserunning groups within the majors. Lindor is the largest exception to this rule, although Starling Marte, Tyrone Taylor, and Nimmo are additionally keen to take an additional base right here and there. For probably the most half, runs come both from the mixed excellence of the crew’s greatest hitters or from stringing collectively a ton of singles to drive house a few of the plodders.
Shutting down the Mets would possibly sound easy – preserve their good hitters off the board – but it surely’s not simple. Alonso and Vientos crush fastballs. Nimmo and Lindor excel towards chase-seeking secondaries. Iglesias will swing at something and steadily make contact – and this 12 months, he’s turning most of that contact into flared singles. One-trick pony pitchers who lean on one or the opposite of a nasty slider or enormous fastball will run into bother towards the Mets.
Fortunately for the Phillies, that doesn’t describe their starters in any respect. Wheeler is a five-trick pony, at minimal: He throws six pitches, and solely his split-change is under common. He additionally has nice command and pitches deep into video games. I imply, clearly he does: He’s one of many absolute best pitchers in baseball, and he has been because the day he went to Philadelphia. Aaron Nola is an in a position second banana; he’ll have his best benefit towards Alonso and Vientos due to a hammer curveball.
Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez may have their work minimize out for them on this collection – lefty sinkerballers don’t match up nicely towards the Mets’ righty energy bats. Nonetheless, they’re glorious choices as no. 3 and 4 starters. The third and fourth video games of the collection are sandwiched by journey days, and Wheeler and Nola usually give the bullpen a break on their begins. That units the Phillies as much as go bullpen-heavy when their lefties are on the mound and assault the highest of the Mets order with a succession of nice relievers.
The Philadelphia bullpen was top-of-the-line within the majors all 12 months, a lot in order that it’s nonetheless a high unit regardless of buying and selling away a number of contributing relievers on the deadline. That power will probably be blunted considerably towards the Mets, although; New York completely crushed lefty pitching this 12 months, and the Phillies have three standout southpaw relievers. The most effective spot to deploy a lefty might be towards the Lindor-Vientos/Iglesias-Nimmo portion of the order, however that’s not even excellent.
Nonetheless, the Phillies are deep. Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, and even José Ruiz convey strikeout stuff from the correct aspect. If I have been managing the Phillies, I’d preserve rotating matchups to stop Vientos and Alonso from seeing any of those arms too typically. I’d combine in a few of the good lefties towards them in low-leverage spots, and possibly even prepare for a Taijuan Walker sighting.
Controlling the highest half of the lineup is quite a lot of the problem when going through the Mets, and the Phillies actually have the arms to do it. However baseball being what it’s, that’s no assure of success. Lindor, Nimmo, and Alonso have hit the largest homers of the 12 months for the Mets, all three this week. They got here off of righty relievers with ERAs of three.67, 1.98, and 1.25, respectively. A technique this collection might go: Philadelphia sends its greatest pitchers on the Mets, and the Mets come out victorious.
After all, the Phillies get to bat too. In some methods, they’re constructed equally to their rivals; the highest of their order options two energy threats and a multi-talented shortstop, and the remainder of the hitters aren’t practically pretty much as good. Of their case, although, the shortstop looks like a fairly clear third banana as a substitute of your complete offensive id of the crew. Harper and Kyle Schwarber are the Phillies offense in some ways. They’ve related skillsets and have produced related worth this 12 months. You’ll battle to make them chase. They’ll swing out of their footwear making an attempt to hit homers. They may strike out because of this – however they have a tendency to take action on their very own phrases, taking enormous hacks at pitches that they’ll obliterate in the event that they make contact.
Trea Turner bats between them and does just a little little bit of all the things. I’m anticipating him to amp up the baserunning aggression in October; this was by far the worst baserunning 12 months of his profession, however the playoffs look like a superb time to eschew good long-term well being administration and put your foot on the fuel pedal. Even when he isn’t stealing bases and making aggressive developments, although, he’s an excellent hitter. He’ll get to face a ton of southpaws due to his lineup place between two lefty sluggers, and he’s been 10% higher with the platoon benefit over his prolonged profession.
Like its counterpart in New York, the Philly lineup falls off after its high guys. Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm bat fourth and fifth in some order most days, and at instances they’ve been nice: Castellanos has a 132 wRC+ within the second half of the season, and Bohm made the All-Star crew due to a scorching first half. However that sizzling streak from Castellanos introduced his profession mark with the Phillies as much as a 103 wRC+, and 105 for the 2024 season. In the meantime, Bohm cooled off onerous within the second half (90 wRC+).
I feel the important thing to the Mets offense is how a lot the highest guys can do injury towards excellent opposition. I feel that the important thing to the Phillies lineup, alternatively, is whether or not the underside half could make life simpler for Harper and pals. Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh appear like platoon bats at this level of their careers. Johan Rojas and Edmundo Sosa are the opposite half of these platoons, however they hardly strike concern into opposing pitchers. J.T. Realmuto is the wild card right here; he obtained higher because the 12 months went on, in stark distinction to what you’d anticipate from a 33-year-old catcher. If he’s extra MVP candidate than defensive specialist who can hit just a little, the lineup will look deeper and scarier for Mets pitchers. If he and Castellanos flip into pumpkins, the crew could be counting on Wheeler and Nola to win quite a lot of 2-1 video games.
Talking of 2-1 duels, the Mets rotation strains up pretty nicely towards the Phillies, although it merely doesn’t have the identical firepower as Philadelphia does in its rotation. Senga will get the beginning in Recreation 1, however with solely 19 2/3 innings pitched throughout all ranges this 12 months due to a number of accidents, he’s in all probability not going to pitch deep into the sport. Tylor Megill would’ve been subsequent in line to attract that begin, so he’ll presumably be readily available as an extended reliever if mandatory. Senga’s look might be extraordinarily quick; the final time he threw a number of aggressive innings got here in the midst of July in a minor league sport, and even that look lasted solely three innings.
Luis Severino was Senga’s alternative atop the rotation this 12 months; relying on how Senga seems to be in Recreation 1, both he or Severino would presumably draw a Recreation 5 task. Due to the way in which the schedule strains up, Severino could be on common relaxation for that one even after he pitches Recreation 2, a boon to the Mets after they performed 5 video games in 4 days this week. The Senga/Megill sport is the hardest one to determine; I feel that will probably be a de facto bullpen sport until Senga seems to be dominant and covers at the least just a few innings, which is principally unknowable at this level.
When the collection shifts again to New York, the Mets will convey out their lefties: Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana. Manaea was Severino’s equal this 12 months, and I feel I’d take him over Severino if I had to decide on one among them for one sport solely, however his relaxation schedule received’t enable him to go twice within the collection. Quintana continues to be the identical pitcher – he’s artful and might nonetheless spin a pleasant curveball, however his nice expertise is in bulk innings, not dominance. If he can get the Phillies chasing within the early going, he would possibly put up a begin to rival his six scoreless innings towards the Brewers in Recreation 3 of the Wild Card Sequence. If he begins falling behind within the rely, it could be an extended night time for the Mets, and a brief one for him.
I anticipate the Mets to be extraordinarily cautious about letting Schwarber and Harper see the identical pitcher for a 3rd time. I’d be keen to provide New York’s two lefty starters an opportunity the third time by way of, however I wouldn’t let Megill strive it if the sport is shut, and I wouldn’t really feel nice about Senga’s (assuming he may even face 18+ batters) or Severino’s possibilities. That places the crew in a tough spot, as a result of it doesn’t have many efficient lefty relievers. David Peterson is the best choice, however he’s a swingman, not a high-leverage arm. Danny Younger is the one different lefty on the squad, and whereas he’s a traditional sinker/slider LOOGY, I wouldn’t be tripping throughout myself to get him into the sport towards two top-tier sluggers.
In a manner, although, that lack of lefties might be liberating. Platoon matchups aren’t as vital as simply utilizing good pitchers, and if the Mets aren’t forcing themselves to play the handedness sport, they’ll flip their greatest relievers unfastened towards the highest of the lineup and work all the things else out later. Edwin Díaz is comfy getting into video games earlier than the ninth inning and likewise comfy getting greater than three outs; I’d take him over Peterson and Younger any day. Reed Garrett, José Buttó, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek might all draw lefty-slugger responsibility as nicely. The important thing will probably be various up the seems to be whereas deploying good relievers in good spots, which is simpler mentioned than finished. Carlos Mendoza has finished a superb job of it up to now, although. He’ll get an opportunity to sink or swim on an even bigger stage beginning Saturday.
Due to the construction of this text, it in all probability looks like I feel the collection is a toss-up. I don’t; the lineups could be related, however the rotations aren’t. I’d name the groups evenly matched in Video games 3 and 4, however Wheeler is miles higher than anybody on the Mets workers. That’s two video games the place the Phillies may have an enormous benefit within the early innings. Nola is not any slouch both. ZiPS offers the Phillies a large 66% likelihood of advancing due to their edge in beginning pitching. Playing markets are practically as bullish; they’ve the Phillies round 65% to win the collection. Our easy projection-based mannequin offers them a 64% likelihood; PECOTA has it 60/40. The Phillies are positively the higher crew.
A much less intrepid preview author would possibly depart it at that. I’ll exit on a limb, although, and say that I feel these odds are too low on the Mets. They aren’t 50% to win this collection, clearly. The Phillies are better-rested and received the NL East by six video games. However the two groups had the identical BaseRuns file. The Mets didn’t simply get sizzling this week; they’ve the very best file in baseball since June 1. They’ve outscored the Phillies over that stretch and allowed fewer runs. They have been really abysmal within the early going this 12 months, and full-season stats and projections do a greater job of predicting playoff success than arbitrary-endpoint streaks, however this isn’t some scrappy underdog squad. The Mets are legit and fairly able to going toe-to-toe with anybody on this juggernaut-light 12 months.
So my prediction? Mets in 4. I’m going towards what the numbers say, and I don’t suppose I’m 50% prone to be proper. However I do suppose that the broader baseball public is simply too assured in Philly’s possibilities, and I like going towards the grain. So there you could have it. In a matchup the place the groups are extra alike than they’re totally different, small edges might decide the collection. Gimme “OMG” remixes with Pitbull over a will-they-won’t-they relationship with “Dancing On My Personal,” significantly in the event that they aren’t going with the unique Robyn model. And if I decide the Mets after which they get drubbed in three lopsided video games? Nicely, what’s extra Mets-y than that? It’s a no-lose proposition.
