Nationwide League Division Collection Preview: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The NL West race could have been settled in favor of the Dodgers this yr, however everyone goes again to the beginning gate within the playoffs. The one distinction is the doable further house sport the Dodgers get in every particular person collection, although house subject benefit has been removed from a helpful perk for groups apart from gross sales of tickets, scorching canines, and $59 foam fingers. With Los Angeles getting a number of further days to attempt to heal up a bit extra, the Padres obtained right here the arduous method, having to win the best-of-three Wild Card Collection towards the Atlanta Braves, a workforce that also managed to squeeze out 89 wins with out Spencer Strider and largely lacking Ronald Acuña Jr.

Whereas a few of baseball’s greatest rivalries are the basic ones which have endured for the final century, comparable to Yankees-Pink Sox and Dodgers-Giants, this one between the Dodgers and Padres is an effective instance of how new rivalries can pop up and be lots of enjoyable, too. Even though the 2 groups have performed in the identical division for greater than 5 many years, solely in recent times has the so-called I-5 Rivalry actually heated up. San Diego has occasionally sustained runs of relevance – that is solely the second model of the Friars to string collectively three profitable seasons in a row – leaving Dodgers followers with few nightmares that includes a brown-and-mustard palette. However these Padres have been aggressive, and in contrast to up to now when short-term bursts of ambition have been tempered shortly with brutal fireplace gross sales, they’ve persistently tried to make the Dodgers uncomfortable on the high of the NL West. Even because the Padres traded Juan Soto over the winter, they acquired their Wild Card Collection Recreation 1 starter Michael King in that deal after which traded for Dylan Stop, who’ll begin Recreation 1 of the Division Collection, simply earlier than Opening Day. But, final success has confirmed elusive for San Diego, with two disappointing playoff misses in 2021 and 2023 and nonetheless no returns to the World Collection since 1998’s debacle.

The Dodgers enter the Division Collection with one thing to show as properly. Whereas they do have a World Collection trophy from the COVID-shortened 2020 season, with 5 100-win seasons within the final seven regular years, they crave to have extra {hardware} to point out for his or her success. Certain, we’re used to the concept that when you’ve giant playoff codecs, profitable the World Collection takes lots of luck, however neither followers nor historical past care a lot about that. Successful the World Collection this yr would wipe out most, if not all, of that disappointment; taking good care of enterprise on this collection would get the Dodgers one step nearer to that whereas additionally giving them a bit revenge towards the Padres for knocking them out within the 2022 NLDS, after Los Angeles gained a franchise-best 111 video games.

So, how do the groups stack up? Let’s begin with the ZiPS projections. As I sort this, Joe Musgrove has been formally dominated out for the NLDS resulting from his elbow damage, which has now been confirmed to require Tommy John surgical procedure. Meaning no Musgrove this postseason – or subsequent season – however for now, we’ll simply take care of the affect of the information on this collection.

For distinction, listed below are the projections for if Musgrove had been in a position to pitch on this five-game set.

Changing Musgrove with Martín Pérez, seemingly the subsequent man up, principally flips the win possibilities for Recreation 4. The place each sport beforehand favored the house workforce within the projections, now the Dodgers are anticipated to win on the highway towards Pérez.

Despite the fact that the Dodgers are favored to win with Musgrove out, it will nonetheless be improper to name them overwhelming favorites. This can be a shut collection total, but additionally a swingy one, with 4 of the 5 video games projecting to be at the very least a 55-45 cut up, which means that for essentially the most half, these video games aren’t projected to be coin flips regardless of the tightness of the collection as an entire. “Breaking serve” right here by profitable on the highway has numerous worth. If the Padres can get to Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Jack Flaherty and win one of many first two video games, they’d expose one of many Dodgers’ present weaknesses: a skinny rotation resulting from accidents. Walker Buehler had solely three high quality begins out of his 16 outings since getting back from Tommy John surgical procedure in Might; his efficiency was shaky sufficient that in mid-June the Dodgers optioned him to the minors, the place he spent two months making an attempt to get proper, earlier than they introduced him again as much as begin on August 20. And regardless of a superficially interesting ERA, Landon Knack could be concerning the twelfth alternative for Los Angeles if everybody have been wholesome. If the Dodgers are in a position to get out to a 2-0 lead with none bullpen-exhaustion occasions, like an 18-inning sport, they is likely to be able of energy to run a bullpen sport and axe one in every of their unsure starters from the NLDS rotation.

The place the Dodgers have the benefit is their front-line offensive expertise, which provides them what seems to be the superior offense total, an edge giant sufficient that it isn’t erased when you view gamers comparable to Jurickson Profar and Donovan Solano with much less skepticism than ZiPS does.

Dylan Stop is a terrific pitcher, however ZiPS thinks the Dodgers’ Massive 4 of Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and the great platoon aspect of Max Muncy has a preventing probability of attending to him. It’s extra of an uphill climb towards Yamamoto; ZiPS has Luis Arraez as the one San Diego batter projected to have a .300 OBP towards Yamamoto, and it provides not one of the Padres a .450 SLG projection towards him. Now, distinction that with the projections at house towards Knack and Buehler.

One in every of San Diego’s different benefits, at the very least within the eyes of the pc, is its bullpen. Whereas ZiPS has each groups performing equally total, it a lot prefers the depth of the Padres’ unit. To check their bullpens, in every simulation, ZiPS was instructed to knock out each starters after two innings in a single sport and have one other sport final 15 innings; in these situations, the chances of the Padres profitable the collection go from 42% to 47% – almost a coin flip. In a brief collection, issues like roster building could make an actual distinction. Have a look at the way in which the Nationals have been configured in 2019, with 4 good starters, two relievers they trusted, and a dumpster fireplace behind them. That sort of distilled efficiency meant that even when Washington gained 13 fewer regular-season video games than Los Angeles that yr, ZiPS projected the groups as almost equal once they met within the 2019 NLDS.

Right here’s what I get from these reams of information: The Dodgers ought to keep the course with what’s labored for all of them yr, belief their elite hitters, and keep away from the temptation to get too cute with their managing ways, however the Padres must be aggressive. In the event that they see a gap to get to Yamamoto or Flaherty, deal with that sport prefer it’s Recreation 7 of the World Collection. San Diego can’t afford to avoid wasting any wacky tips for later. If the Padres can push the Dodgers again on their heels shortly and early, the latter could run out of time to proper themselves.

One factor you’ll hear rather a lot (in all 4 collection), particularly early on, is the declare that the layoff is a giant drawback for groups. Don’t consider it. If the Padres upset the Dodgers right here within the five-game collection, it gained’t be as a result of Los Angeles was too rested. As an alternative, it’ll be as a result of the Padres performed higher.