Left-hander Sean Manaea has signed two-year offers with opt-out provisions in every of the previous two offseasons and is poised to re-enter the marketplace for a 3rd straight winter. USA At this time’s Bob Nightengale writes that Manaea will choose out of the second 12 months and $13.5M on his deal “barring unexpected circumstances.” The lefty himself spoke to Nightengale about his latest pair of short-term offers, noting that he’d actually contemplate a longer-term pact, however in contrast to many different gamers, he doesn’t thoughts the short-term, opt-out-laden route.
“I prefer to assume it’s enjoyable as a result of it’s a brand new journey,” Manaea instructed Nightengale. “I imply, it’s a bit of nerve-wracking while you’re not with a staff many of the offseason, but it surely’s all a part of the journey.”
Manaea, 33 in February, is within the midst of one in all his finest seasons. He’s began 27 video games and pitched 150 1/3 frames with the Mets, working to a pointy 3.35 ERA with a 25 p.c strikeout fee and eight.8 p.c stroll fee. After favoring his four-seamer over the previous two seasons with the Padres and Giants, Manaea has returned to the sinker he sported with the Athletics as his main providing, throwing the pitch 40.8 p.c of the time. He’s maintained the elevated utilization of his slider (26 p.c) on the expense of his changeup (11.7 p.c) — whereas nonetheless throwing occasional four-seamers and cutters.
The brand new pitch mix has confirmed largely efficient. Manaea is averaging 5 2/3 innings per outing, sitting on what’s almost a career-high strikeout fee and solely issuing walks at a barely above-average clip. He’s saved the ball within the yard (0.96 HR/9) and executed a good job avoiding onerous contact (88.8 mph common exit velocity, 38.2 p.c hard-hit fee). He’s not drawing tons of chases off the plate (27 p.c), however his opponents are making contact on these swings on the second-lowest fee of Manaea’s profession (53.4 p.c).
Manaea has lengthy appeared able to placing collectively any such season. He recurrently posts better-than-average stroll charges and average-or-better strikeout charges. He was in consideration to go within the prime 10 alternatives of the 2013 draft, however slipped to the No. 34 choose by the Royals on account of a hip harm. That was the primary of some notable harm situations for Manaea, who most notably missed almost all the 2019 season after present process shoulder surgical procedure late within the 2018 marketing campaign.
Since that surgery-ruined season, Manaea has been a sturdy supply of innings. He began an almost full slate of 11 video games within the shortened 2020 season and has since appeared in 32, 30, 37 and 27 video games per season. The Giants continuously used him as a multi-inning reliever and bulk pitcher behind openers in 2023, therefore that 12 months’s 27 aid outings, however he nonetheless pitched 117 2/3 frames that 12 months. Manaea hasn’t been on the injured listing since getting back from that 2018 shoulder process.
Given how effectively he’s pitched for a lot of the season, it’s hardly shocking that Manaea is intent on as soon as once more exploring free company. A assured multi-year deal needs to be there this time round, except Manaea has come to benefit from the mercenary life and having say over his staff on a yearly foundation. As a result of he’ll be heading into his age-33 season, Manaea’s ceiling is probably going a four-year deal, and three years appears extra affordable to anticipate. Even when Manaea “solely” secures a two-year assure, he’d nearly actually achieve this whereas signing for an annual worth greater than the $13.5M on his present contract.
The extra fascinating query surrounding Manaea will probably be one of many qualifying provide. The Mets can lengthen a QO to Manaea if he declines his participant possibility, thus entitling themselves to a compensatory draft choose if Manaea indicators elsewhere. They’d have to be comfy paying Manaea the projected $21.2MM sum of this 12 months’s QO, nonetheless.
On its floor, that’s a drop within the bucket for a deep-pocketed membership just like the Mets. However the Mets have paid the posh tax each season underneath Steve Cohen’s possession, falling into the highest tier of penalty up to now two seasons. RosterResource initiatives them for a $171M determine subsequent 12 months that’s effectively under the forthcoming $241M tax barrier, however the Mets might see Manaea, Pete Alonso, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, J.D. Martinez, Adam Ottavino, Harrison Bader, Ryne Stanek, Brooks Raley, Phil Maton and Jesse Winker all hit free company. They’ll have many, many holes to fill and it received’t take a lot to push them proper again up into luxurious territory.
If the Mets return to the highest tier of penalization — they’re already rumored to be amongst Juan Soto’s suitors and can presumably pursue different high-end targets, notably within the rotation — that might imply a 110 p.c tax on that wage. That’d be a complete of $44.52M if Manaea accepts. Even when they’re in a decrease tier, a 62 p.c tax or 95 p.c tax would nonetheless put Manaea’s complete expenditure on a QO within the $34-41M vary. And, as a luxury-paying staff, the Mets would solely obtain a comp choose after the fourth spherical within the occasion that Manaea signed elsewhere. That minimal compensation and big tax invoice would possibly enable Manaea to hit the market with out the burden of draft compensation, which might solely additional strengthen his free-agent case on the heels of a powerful season.
