Being Mets-y has been an insult for years, an outline of a workforce combining unhealthy execution and unhealthy luck to grab defeat from the jaws of victory. It’s the type of factor that describes poor selections but in addition poor circumstances. Kodai Senga spraining his calf in his first sport all 12 months and lacking the rest of the season? That’s Mets-y. Buying and selling an enormous haul to switch him after which getting nothing from the massive title alternative? That’d be Mets-y too, however issues have modified in Queens. As an alternative of forking out prospects for Yusei Kikuchi or going after a toolsy younger arm, because the Orioles did for Trevor Rogers, the Mets are doing the MLB equal of purchasing at Costco. They acquired Paul Blackburn from the A’s in trade for Kade Morris, their Seventeenth-best prospect, as Will Sammon reported.
Blackburn is unquestionably not a reputation you’d placed on a marquee. He’s pitched to a 4.83 ERA and 4.36 FIP in his main league profession. You know the way Yu Darvish is so enjoyable as a result of he throws seven pitches they usually’re all above common? Blackburn is like that – solely all of his pitches are beneath common. He has six completely different choices, however our stuff fashions assume that solely his slider and cutter are even respectable. He makes up for that lack of uncooked juice with command and with the willingness to throw any pitch in any depend.
That sounds imply, however I promise it’s not. Guys like Blackburn are the glue that holds main league rotations collectively. Prior to now three years, he’s been a priceless contributor when wholesome, racking up 266 innings of league common work. That’s superior; 26 or so groups would like to have him as both a swingman or a fifth starter. He’s missed time with two completely different finger accidents and in addition with a metatarsal stress response – translation: a harm foot. That’s not an enormous downside, if I’m being sincere; provided that he’s principally round for depth, a number of missed turns yearly is affordable as long as he doesn’t miss an prolonged time frame. Beginning rotations are extra of an ensemble than a five-man group as of late, and Blackburn is a succesful part-time contributor.
Blackburn has solely made a single begin since getting back from that foot harm, and it was a poor one; he gave up two homers in 5 innings towards the Angels en path to surrendering 4 earned runs with solely two strikeouts. However you’re going to get these clunkers every now and then with Blackburn. In trade, you’ll additionally get video games like his penultimate begin earlier than his harm: seven innings, three strikeouts, and a solo homer as the one run allowed. He’s a fifth starter, so that you’re going to should take some up with some down.
That may work simply nice for the Mets, who’ve three guys they like on the prime of their rotation even with Senga out till not less than the playoffs. Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana are locked in as above common choices. New York’s downside has been after them; Tylor Megill has struggled within the rotation this 12 months, José Buttó appears higher as a reliever, and David Peterson might be no higher than a fourth possibility, if he’s even that. To make issues worse, the bullpen has been no nice shakes both, so any starter the workforce can push to the bullpen might be priceless there as nicely.
For those who don’t want a starter who can pitch within the playoffs, Blackburn is an ideal addition. He solves a number of the workforce’s issues to an appropriate diploma, which is a good match for the Mets’ budget-conscious deadline purchasing. This doesn’t really feel just like the 12 months to go all out to maximise the present workforce; it’s extra about scooping an sudden Wild Card slot if attainable whereas conserving issues in place for 2025 and past. Blackburn fills a right away want, and he’ll even be round subsequent 12 months for rotation depth. He virtually definitely gained’t be essentially the most impactful pitcher traded in the present day, and he gained’t should be.
To get that type of unexciting competence, the Mets gave up an fascinating however risky pitcher. Kade Morris was a third-round decide final 12 months, and he’s climbing the minor league ranks slowly this season, most just lately performing nicely in Excessive-A. He throws 4 common pitches, with the spotlight most likely being a low-slot fastball that tops out above 96 mph. We projected him with loads of aid danger coming into the 12 months, however he’s throwing extra strikes in 2024 than he did in school, which supplies the prospect workforce hope that he’ll develop right into a back-end starter or swingman with time. That’s a 40 FV, in the event you’re conserving rating at dwelling, and we’ve got him down because the no. 18 prospect within the A’s org. If issues go very well, we could be taking a look at a future Paul Blackburn, in different phrases.
By buying and selling Blackburn for Morris, the A’s are primarily saying that they didn’t assume {that a} sturdy marketplace for Blackburn would ever develop, even when they’d held onto him till the offseason. I believe they’re proper: More and more, groups are focusing on doubtlessly elite expertise in trades. Nobody needs a fifth starter or a rotation nook outfielder; the massive commerce returns come from dealing somebody with splashy instruments or dominant efficiency, and ideally each.
However when the league goes excessive (impression), you need to go low (price). A theme amongst trades I’ve favored for consumers this deadline is on the lookout for common contributors to switch weak point quite than attempting to enhance a mean place right into a energy. (I’ve additionally favored buying and selling with the White Sox as a theme, however that one’s tougher to duplicate.) The Mariners’ getting Justin Turner for a track is the hitting model of this commerce, and I favored that one too. There’s nothing thrilling about Blackburn. If every part goes as deliberate, he’s going to place up a four-handle ERA with a 20% strikeout charge. However groups want gamers like him to succeed, and for no matter purpose, they’ve been out there for little or no this deadline. I like that the Mets took what the market gave them quite than attempting to power the problem with a much bigger commerce – even when it’s not very Mets-y.
